UFC 172 will be the last of a three-week stretch of events for the UFC. On paper, this is one of the more weaker cards that the UFC has had for a pay-per-view event. As much criticism as they’ve received for putting on too many events, the events have been very well put together for the most part this month. Nobody can deny that UFC on Fox 11 was one of the more enjoyable events in recent memory. The show in Abu Dhabi was also very well done, with compelling match-ups.
We now move to this card, which features a light heavyweight title bout between Jon Jones and Glover Teixeira. The co-main event will also feature the light heavyweight division, as Phil Davis faces the returning Anthony Johnson. Also Luke Rockhold faces Tim Boetsch in a potential number one contender entry fight at middleweight The fights seem one-sided on paper, but as we know anything is possible in MMA.
J.P Lasaleta, who is back writing on the site, joins me to preview the entire main card for UFC 172.
1. Andre Fili is another young prospect, who is being considered as one of the top prospects in the UFC. Do you label him as that or is it far too early to label him that?
Lasaleta: He’s definitely a top prospect but everyone in the UFC is a top prospect, especially for the featherweight division. Max Holloway is the perfect rung in the ladder to see if Fili is worthy of fighting the best of the division. The top 20 featherweights are all big names and it looks like all of Holloway’s three losses have catapulted each of the victors into the top 15 rankings.
McGregor, Bermudez and Poirier benefited from Holloway’s aggressive style to showcase their skills. Fili will need to do the same if he still wants to be considered a top prospect.
Strk: Similar to Beneil Dariush, it’s far too early to label someone as one of the top prospects in the UFC after one fight. They have to win at least two fights minimum to be considered a top prospect. Fili is someone that has great upside training at such a great camp in Team Alpha Male. Similar to most of the camp, his grappling is tremendous and has the ability to submit his opponents. In his highlight reel, we’ve seen him lock into an arm-bar rather quickly.
Max Holloway is no slouch though and constantly continues to evolve. He’s always been a solid volume striker, but now he’s starting to add more power. His combinations were always rapid to begin with. Now he’s adding more elements like the spinning back kick that stunned Will Chope. While this seems to be the classic striker versus grappler match-up on paper, both fighters are highly well rounded. This will be a sturdy test for Fili to prove if he truly is one of the top prospects in the UFC.
2. Yancy Medeiros was training already, so he should be in fine shape. The question for him will be simply if he hang with Jim Miller’s relentless pace? Medeiros has had an odd two fights to start off his UFC career.
Lasaleta: Medeiros can definitely hang with Jim Miller’s pace. It’s a hallmark of Hawaiian fighters to have a high scrappy pace with tough chins, so I don’t think that pace will be an issue. Also, the experience gap won’t be an issue, as has already proven that he can beat a dangerous veteran when he knocked out Yves Edwards.
I still see Jim Miller being a problem because of his grappling. Miller’s grappling style is tough to deal with for even competent BJJ black belts, as he uses his wrestling control so well. Medeiros will need to control the distance and keep the fight out of grappling range. He’ll force the scrap and land his proven power in his hands to finish the fight.
Strk: While cardio has never been an issue, this is still a major step up in competition for Medeiros. Jim Miller fights at such a frantic pace that has overwhelmed some of his opponents in the past. He’s proven to be hittable though, which bodes well for Medeiros. Miller isn’t as technically proficient as other lightweights in the division.
This will be a major challenge for Medeiros trying to keep Miller from closing the distance. He’ll have to work his jab and not get caught into constantly clinching with Miller. I’m expecting him to get overwhelmed by latter in the second round. Besides Rustan Khabilov, Medeiros hasn’t faced a grappler quite like Miller. Eventually Miller will win the transitions and manage to stay in top control. Medeiros will put up a respectful performance, but simply won’t be able to withstand the constant pressure.
3. Tim Boetsch has struggled with explosive fighters in the past. His losses to Mark Munoz and Costas Philippou were fairly one-sided. What do you think is his main issue against these particular fighters?
Lasaleta: I don’t think he really has problem with handling explosiveness, as he was able to weather the storm against the most explosive fighter in my opinion in the UFC in Hector Lombard. I really believe that Boetsch honestly was against the best forms of Munoz and Philippou, along with Boetsch not showing up in full form.
If the Boetsch that showed up and overpowered Nick Ring, or even the one that came from behind against Yushin Okami comes to fight on Saturday, Luke Rockhold is in big trouble.
Strk: I’ve always felt Boetsch was too over sized to be fighting at middleweight. He seems to lack the athleticism and speed that is needed to beat the top middleweights in the world. As impressive as his comeback was against Yushin Okami, Okami’s always been slow and his head movement had declined over the years. I don’t put much stock into his comeback win there, along with the lackluster victory against Hector Lombard, who isn’t a natural middleweight.
Boetsch is as gritty as they come, who never seems to go away. That will always keep him in a fight. Still his lack of athleticism will be evident against Luke Rockhold. When you watch Rockhold elevate from kicking to the body to the head area, it shows how athletic he is. He’s an excellent counter striker, which will frustrate Boetsch who likes to charge forward with his chin high. Boetsch simply needs to be more technically sound and not put on so much weight, after weigh-ins to pull off the upset.
4. Anthony Johnson has rejuvenated his career by fighting at 205 pounds. He’s training with the Blackzilians specifically Rashad Evans, who has defeated Phil Davis before. Despite Evans being injured and unable to train with him, do you see anything that Johnson can do to reiterate him in defeating Davis?
Lasaleta: I think Johnson can maybe get some tips on how to avoid Davis’ takedown. That being said, Johnson and Evans are two different fighters with different skill sets and physical attributes. When the fight is at striking range, Johnson has the reach (78″ vs. Davis’ 79″), the skills, and power to go toe-to-toe with Davis.
What he needs to use his strength and athleticism to make up for difference in the wrestling to keep the fight standing. He must deny Davis of any deep penetration in shots or else he will be on his back and smothered.
Strk: You pretty much nailed it. While Evans throws his fair share of power punches like Johnson, he relies more on speed and keeping his opponent at bay. Johnson is far more aggressive and less versatile with his striking. The big question will be his take-down defense, which is always the main component in trying to defeat Phil Davis.
Johnson needs to pace himself and not get too predictable. While Davis has been criticized for not winning in impressive fashion in recent fights, his fight IQ is among the best in the sport. He knows what he’s specializes in and implements his game plan. Besides his loss to Evans, he uses his reach efficiently and his double leg is among the best in the world. Johnson has a history of gassing out, but he was fighting at 170 at the time. Times have changed for him in a new division, along with learning from the likes of Evans and Olympic gold medalist Kenny Monday, who is his wrestling coach. He’ll have to reiterate how Evans controlled the pace of his fight against Davis without being taken down.
5. Many people are already talking about Alexander Gustafsson and Daniel Cormier as the next challengers for Jon Jones. Glover Teixeira is being substantially overlooked in this bout. Does he present a difficult challenge or will Jones run through him?
Lasaleta: I believe the odds makers have this pick right. Some have Jones at -700 at this point. Teixeira does not have a particular skill set that stands out that will over power Jones the same way Cormier has with his wrestling. He does not have the physical attributes to match Jones the same way Gustafsson did with his reach and length to employ the “blueprint” that some people talk about to beat Jones.
I give him both a puncher’s chance that you would give Rampage Jackson too or a submission chance that you would give Vitor Belfort too, but we saw how both of those turned out.
Strk: As well rounded as Teixeira may be, he’s going to struggle with the pace against an athlete like Jon Jones. He’s always been one of the slower light heavyweights, along with having questionable cardio. He was slowing down against Ryan Bader early on, before Bader got reckless and let himself far too open. Then his pace considerably dropped against Rampage Jackson in the third round. When you are going up against someone like Jones, you need to be ready for 25 minutes of action.
I wrote a piece yesterday how it’s unfortunate that this fight is getting limited buzz. The UFC hasn’t done a good job in positioning Teixeira to be a well-known commodity and a legitimate contender similar to Fabricio Werdum. The difference was Werdum was fighting on free TV, while Teixeira is on pay-per-view. This is a tough spot for him and he doesn’t have much of a chance, if the fight goes past the first round. We can all talk about his one-punch knockout power and how dangerous he is on the ground. Your examples of Belfort and Jackson are spot on, as fighters who lost to Jones in decisive fashion. In the end, Jones is too athletic and powerful to get caught in a bad situation. Cue the Jones-Gustafsson rematch talk late Saturday night.
Twitter: @Allen_Strk & @jplasaleta
