The most anticipated main event in recent history is finally upon us. This could very well be the best Fox card on paper as well. UFC on FOX 12 is coming from San Jose and brings us four excellent fights. Matt Brown vs. Robbie Lawler doesn’t need any selling point. All you need to do is watch their respective highlight reels and understand the magnitude of this main event.
Anthony Johnson is back to face Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in somewhat of a mismatch. That will be countered by two other intriguing fights between Dennis Bermudez and Clay Guida. Also Josh Thomson makes his return to his hometown to face upstart Bobby Green.
I’m joined by the man himself Jeremy Brand to preview this event.
1. What preliminary bout are you looking forward to the most?
Brand: I think a ton of the fights are going to be barnburners, but the one I look forward to the most is definitely Patrick Cummins vs. Kyle Kingsbury.
I feel that Cummins has become quite the media commodity, even though both of his fights have been busts. Yes, he won his last outing against Roger Narvaez by second round finish, but we didn’t get to see the wrestling that everyone seems to be spouting about.
The one main problem I see with this fight, is that it could showcase Cummins wrestling and have Kingsbury flat on his back for three rounds and we know how Kingsbury is there. I personally don’t see it ending up this way, I think these two are going to slug it out and it’ll definitely be a fun one for the fans.
Strk: When Jorge Masvidal vs. Daron Cruickshank was announced, I was pumping my fist low for about ten seconds. This was an easy choice, which features two excellent strikers. They are both very technical as well, which is something that tends to be lacking in higher divisions. Most lightweights pride themselves on being technically superior to one another.
Cruickshank has a lot of upside following his upset victory over Erik Koch. His kicks possess a lot of power and versatility. The big question for him is his wrestling. Masvidal has greatly improved his wrestling, which we saw against Pat Healy. While his boxing is very good, I’m sure he won’t hesitate to exploit Cruickshank’s potential flaw. This should be a thrilling fight, regardless of how you look at it.
2. Do you see Bobby Green posing any significant problems to Josh Thomson?
Brand: Bobby Green has gone through so much in his personal life over the past few months and the mental game could very easily come into play for Green. However, I am actually placing my bets on Green as I do see him posing a few big problems for Thomson.
Many thought Thomson beat Gilbert Melendez at a Strikeforce event in 2012, myself included, but he hasn’t faced someone like Green. Is “King” coming into this bout on short notice, yes, but that could make it even more of a problem for Thomson. His hands low, speedy boxing style is where I could see him coming forward and possibly dropping Thomson in his tracks.
Strk: His speed is certainly one of his biggest assets. He made Pat Healy look silly at times, with his head movement and counter striking. Obviously Josh Thomson isn’t as slow and predictable as Healy tends to be. He knows how to mix up his striking and takedowns better than almost any lightweight.
Green does pose a few issues, but Thomson is so well rounded that he shouldn’t be too threatened. Eventually he’ll realize that standing and trading with Green won’t be too effective, so it’ll come down to closing the distance and making the fight ugly. Thomson is athletic and strong enough to control him on the ground. We saw that against Benson Henderson, where he manhandled him at times even with a broken right hand. I don’t see a possible upset, but I’d be shocked to see this be completely one-sided.
3. Do you believe that Clay Guida is on the decline like Denis Bermudez does?
Brand: This fight is such a coin toss for me.
Guida is that Leonard Garcia type guy that the judges love because he comes forward and continues to throw. He may not land all his punches, but he’s always moving and definitely looks active. Could this pose a problem for Bermudez? Possibly. I do see this fight going to the judges scorecards, but with Bermudez’s hand being raised.
I think Bermudez has the tools in his belt to be able to control this fight for all three rounds.
Strk: This will be the turning point for Guida in his career. While he looked impressive against Tatsuya Kawajiri, it was his fight to lose. He was far superior in the clinch and on the ground. It appeared that Kawajiri would have the striking advantage, yet Guida scored his first knockdown ever with an over hand left.
Bermudez couldn’t be more different than Kawajiri. He doesn’t get overpowered in the clinch or taken down very often. He’s one of the few featherweights that can match Guida’s pace. This fight will be extremely fast-paced, where positioning and significant strikes will be highly valued. I’m undecided on whether Guida is completely declining, although it seems apparent that he slightly is. It can’t be forgotten that Chad Mendes dominated him last August. This fight will be the true justification if Guida is declining or not.
4. Does Antonio Rogerio Nogueira garner any optimism from you? He’s been out for over a year and hasn’t been very exciting in the UFC.
Brand: Lil Nog’s boxing can be trouble for anyone. If you’re going to bet on an underdog, then this one could be it. The problem for Nog is that Rumble has been on such a roll and his striking is relentless. I don’t think I need to get any deeper than that.
Strk: I’ll always be excited to see a fighter make his long-awaited return, but this looks like such a mismatch. Nogueira has been out for so long and will more than likely be a step slower. Anthony Johnson’s explosiveness has to be worrisome for any opponent, let alone Nogueira. The first two or three minutes should tell us immediately if Nogueira could still hang with the top contenders.
I’m not putting any stock into his win over Johnson’s teammate Rashad Evans, as a possible crutch. Any person who has watched MMA over the past three to five years knows that Evans was completely off that night. Nogueira benefited from that, yet couldn’t build much momentum off it. My optimism for Nogueira is minimal at best.
5. Both Matt Brown and Robbie Lawler are relentless strikers. Who would you give the edge to if you had to?
Brand: The edge is clear and I think it will be very clear come fight night for many. Robbie Lawler is going to have his way with Matt Brown in my opinion.
I am a huge Brown fan and many people know that, but I think the way Lawler has looked his last few fights inside the Octagon is down right scary. From the fact that he can knock your head off with one punch, to his utilization of leg kicks.This guy is like a Lawler 2.0.
We saw Brown get dropped by both Erick Silva and Jordan Mein with body shots and if those two can do it, then Lawler can most definitely as well.
Strk: Brown is certainly the more unorthodox striker. His unique knees and elbows that were showcased against Erick Silva proved that. The overall edge still has to go to Robbie Lawler for being more technical and powerful. Lawler has proven to finish his opponents with one strike. His victories over Melvin Manhoef and Bobby Voelker showcased that. Even his knockdowns come from usually one punch, if you look back on his victories over Rory MacDonald and Jake Ellenberger.
I’ll always be appreciative of unique strikers, but Brown doesn’t posses the same power that Lawler has. He has finished many of his opponents through his relentless pace, besides his knockout victories over Mike Pyle and Mike Swick. Both fighters have reaped a legion of fans to their respective fan-bases by their striking. The edge still has to go to Lawler from his boxing combinations to head kicks.
Twitter: @Allen_Strk & @JeremyBrand604
