The lightweight division is like quicksand: Move too quickly or erratically, and it will swallow you whole. As Jai Herbert completes his training camp ahead of his upcoming bout at UFC Abu Dhabi, he currently finds himself knee-deep in that quicksand as he fights to save his career in the Persian Gulf.
Herbert’s UFC career has been embroiled by paradox and ill timing. Riding a 6-fight winning streak stretching back to 2016, expectations were sky high for a young, well-rounded Herbert as he made his 2020 Fight Island debut against the durable but manageable Francisco Trinaldo.
Regional Run
These expectations were certainly well-founded, with Herbert’s counter-striking approach delivering emphatic results throughout his run as Cage Warriors champion. The components of such an approach can be seen on full display in his title defence (and final promotional bout) against Cain Carrizosa, with Herbert opportunistically gaging distance to land a knockdown punch against the kick-heavy Carrizosa before finishing him with a knee up the middle as his opponent unwisely attempted to brawl against the cage.
This career highlight certainly reveals a lot in under 3 minutes, with Herbert’s cage cutting ability, skittish head movement and timing being put to full use in his masterclass over Carrizosa. Neither were these facets simply a flash in the pan, with Herbert’s run to promotional gold being built on an unpretentious counter-fighting style, honed throughout his Cage Warriors run.
Similar case studies include wins over Joe McColgan and Jack Grant, where Herbert can be seen beguiling his opponents with his proactive (but exhausting) head movement, before timing their attacks to perfection with well-placed counter strikes, for example a step-in right overhand in response to the persistent jab game of McColgan.
A Game of Inches
All these technical facets arguably culminated in the Magnum Opus that never was, in Herbert’s short notice matchup against an at the time unknown quantity in Ilia Topuria. Of course since the matchup, the careers of the combatants have gone in contrasting directions, with Topuria’s ascendancy to the top of featherweight truly beginning with his highlight reel performance over Herbert.
Yet at the time, the matchmaker gods appeared to be smiling on the Englishman, as the skillset he had cultivated across his Cage Warriors run appeared tailormade for aggressive boxing-centric opponents with a reach disadvantage.
For the first 5 minutes this appeared to be the case, with Herbert out-boxing Topuria at range and mitigating his guard passes, before landing a devastating head kick that should have changed the featherweight title picture forever. But to the chagrin of the fans of Volkanovski (and the laws of physics) Topuria miraculously survived, seeing out the round before landing an earth-shattering right overhand as Herbert moved off the cage midway through round 2.
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Since that near world-altering fight, Herbert has assumed a position as one of the “nearly men” of the lightweight division, unable to build on his victories and falling short against notable opposition (Renato Moicano and Ludovit Klein) despite his obvious talent.
His long battle with “nearly man” disease goes right back to that anticipated debut, where despite all the buildup, the durable “but manageable” Francisco Trinaldo proved to be too much for the precocious debutant, landing a knockout blow in the dying moments of a fight Herbert had largely dictated, turning an impressive debut into a frustrating setback.
In any other division, a stuttering start will not prove to be fatal. Marginal divisions are always on the lookout for genuine talent, so a loss here and there will not be cancer of the career.
Lightweight, however, is not any other division, with its high turnover rate and ultra talented top-15, it takes a miracle to access the rankings without a credible win streak over top opposition. The last 3 champions alone held a combined 27-fight win streak prior to receiving their shots at gold, compared to 15 at bantamweight and 11 at Middleweight. This, then, is not environment forgiving of slipups, or appreciative of nuance, instead prioritizing wins over all else in what is the UFC’s deepest weight class.
Opponent Preview
Coming into this fight, Herbert is just about balancing atop the shifting quicksand of lightweight MMA. But a fighter as experienced as he can surely spot the tremors he must face, as Herbert matches up against the 0-2 UFC fighter Rolando Bedoya, in what is certainly a win-or-go-home scenario for both men.
Bedoya’s game is founded on damaging low kicks coming out of both stances. They are used both to set a pace (Bedoya frequently resorts to an orthodox teep kick to create distance and put his opponent on the back foot) and establish entries for pocket exchanges.
It would be rational to assume that Bedoya does his best work on the inside, if his striking is geared to consistently creating entries. However, when in the pocket, Bedoya often resorts to wild haymakers and sloppy hammerfists to keep his opponent honest, while lacking the requisite head movement to make these exchanges truly worthwhile.
So, although the eye test points to Bedoya being a tricky matchup for the notoriously “chinny” Herbert, there are certainly holes to the Peruvian’s game that can be readily exploited.
An obvious example is Bedoya’s use of the orthodox teep, a valuable weapon, but only on the front foot, meaning that if Herbert is willing to push the pace and switch the angle whenever Bedoya goes southpaw, he will be able to take away one of Bedoya’s key tools. Furthermore, Bedoya’s poor punching mechanics mean that it would be remiss of Herbert not to employ a high guard when standing in range of Bedoya. In all likelihood, this will lessen the impact of Bedoya’s clubbing shots, leaving Herbert with the chance to land a well-placed counterpunch against such an immobile opponent.
Final Thoughts
It would be a gutting loss to see Jai Herbert exit the stage at this point. His performances demonstrate tremendous talent and definite watchability. But, unfortunately it does appear that it’s do or die for him at this point, an all too familiar scenario for a dozen talented lightweights, including Guram Kutateladze and Beneil Dariush.
