The vacant UFC welterweight championship is on the line at UFC 171, as Johny Hendricks and Robbie Lawler go toe-to-toe in the main event. We are back at it with our MMASucka Staff Predictions: UFC 171.
Carlos Condit and Tyron Woodley square off for number one contender status in the 170-pound division in the co-main event.
A key match-up in the UFC’s lightweight division will take place at UFC 171, as veteran Diego Sanchez takes on the undefeated youngster Myles Jury. Rounding out the main card are welterweights Hector Lombard vs. Jake Shields, as well as light heavyweights Nikita Krylov vs. Ovince St. Preux.
As always the staff at MMASucka.com will make their predictions be heard. As you can see from our overall running scores, some of us are much better than others. But without further ado, check out the MMASucka Staff Predictions.
Justin – 22-9
Allen – 20-6
Suraj – 15-7
Jeremy – 19-12
Thinesh – 6-2
Callum – 6-3
Johny Hendricks vs. Robbie Lawler
Jeremy Brand: Hendricks to many is considered the odds on favorite to win this fight, and to win it by knockout. He earned his shot at the 170-pound title against Georges St-Pierre after winning five in a row, but fell short in a fight that many believed he won. Lawler has found a career resurgence since making it back to the UFC in early 2013. He is currently riding a three-fight winning streak, with two of those victories coming by knockout. If Hendricks can utilize his takedowns, then that could be the difference maker in this bout. Johny Hendricks via Round 3 TKO.
Justin Pierrot: Already covered this in this week’s Stats For Suckas, but based on his success against fellow southpaws, I’m picking Robbie Lawler. Robbie Lawler via Unanimous Decision.
Allen Strk: If Tarec Saffiedine didn’t get injured before his fight against Robbie Lawler, I would have picked against Lawler in all three of his fights in 2013. I’ve always respected Lawler for how dynamic his striking has always been. He’s so versatile, where you don’t know what’s next and every strike has so much power on it. His grappling and tendency to take too many punches were always my main concerns for him. So far in his latest UFC run, he’s improved greatly on his takedown defense and avoiding significant damage. Rory MacDonald did take him down a few times, but he never managed to put together any sustainable offense on top. I’m still leaning towards Johny Hendricks, because of his wrestling and ability to close the distance. He isn’t going to allow Lawler to get comfortable and start firing off combinations. As long as Hendricks doesn’t tire himself out late like he did against Koscheck, Condit and St.Pierre, then he should become the new champion. Lawler is tough to put away, so I’m expecting Hendricks to play it safe and lean towards his takedowns as the fight goes on. Johny Hendricks via Unanimous decision
Callum Leslie: This is by far the most intriguing main event on a UFC event this year so far, and I can’t wait to see how this one plays out. Lawler has been a different animal in the last eighteen months since moving to American Top Team, and as such his game has become a lot more well rounded. I actually think this is a really close fight to call so if you’re a gambler I’d advise a play on Lawler. Johny Hendricks via split decision
Carlos Condit vs. Tyron Woodley
Jeremy Brand: Both Condit and Woodley are coming off big stoppage victories and will look to earn a shot at welterweight gold with another win. Condit is so elusive with his striking that he could be able to keep Woodley at bay, however if the two clinch Woodley’s wrestling prowess could come in to play. Carlos Condit via Unanimous Decision.
Justin Pierrot: This one is going to be a barn-burner. It will be an exciting fight, but this is a huge step up in competition for “T-Wood,” and one I don’t think he’s quite ready for. Carlos Condit via Unanimous Decision.
Allen Strk: Tyron Woodley is no slouch, when it comes to ranking the top welterweights. He hasn’t been given enough recognition compared to fighters like Matt Brown and Rory MacDonald. If he trained in a noteworthy gym or was knocking everyone out, he’d be getting a lot more attention. The big question with him will be about his cardio. Can he fight at a fast pace for 15 minutes? Also can he find his range against someone, who’s so hard to hit in Carlos Condit. Condit’s agility and ability to strike from different angles is going to be too much for Woodley to overcome. Eventually he’ll wilt under Condit’s pressure similar to how Martin Kampmann wilted. Carlos Condit via 3rd round TKO
Callum Leslie: Condit is a very very strong fighter, stronger than a lot of people give him credit for because of his recent form. Woodley doesn’t have a great track record against higher level fighters and he’s probably fighting out of his league here. Carlos Condit via 2nd round TKO
Diego Sanchez vs. Myles Jury
Jeremy Brand: Myles Jury could prove to be the kryptonite that finishes the career of Diego Sanchez at UFC 171. The 13-0, undefeated fighter will look to continue the streak against the never quit Sanchez. Sanchez has been on a roller-coaster ride of sorts, going 3-4 in his last seven outings. Jury has not faced a fighter with the experience that Sanchez has and only time will tell how he will fair. Myles Jury via Unanimous Decision.
Justin Pierrot: Diego Sanchez has no business in the UFC Octagon at this point in his life. He stopped evolving a long time ago, and relies only on his chin and the whims of the judges to survive. The younger Miles Jury is going to put a hurting on him, so much so that he’ll likely earn a 10-8 round at some point. Myles Jury via Unanimous Decision.
Allen Strk: Jury is a great prospect, but people are somewhat overrating him. Does anyone remember his last fight against Mike Ricci? He was far too hesitant and didn’t take control against a lesser opponent. Another storyline to this fight is about Sanchez possibly being finished. He did get dominated by Gilbert Melendez for 13 minutes, but do people realize that Melendez is arguably the best lightweight in the world? Then Sanchez nearly finished him within the last minute, similar to his loss against Jake Ellenberger. The trendy reviews of each fighter’s recent performance doesn’t make any sense to me. Jury’s grappling and ground control should prove to be a great test for Sanchez, who if you saw on the countdown show has been working on his wrestling more extensively. This is the toughest fight to predict on the card. I’m leaning towards the fighter who is more dangerous and well-rounded. Diego Sanchez via Unanimous Decision
Callum Leslie: I expect a fight here that looks a lot like the Diaz/Condit fight: Sanchez will look for crazy offense, but Jury will avoid being drawn in and counter strike effectively. Sanchez doesn’t have a lot to offer beyond that and when his game is neutralised, it will not be the most entertaining fight but Jury will get the job done. Myles Jury by unanimous decision
Hector Lombard vs. Jake Shields
Jeremy Brand: Could power be the difference in this fight? I don’t necessarily think so. Shields will look to utilize his grappling prowess, which we’ve seen in the past, but Lombard has the judo base that could cause him some trouble. The Cesar Gracie fighter hasn’t fought since October of last year, but is riding a three-fight winning streak. Lombard is also coming off a win in October against Nate Marquardt and will look to continue on that. I am going to go out on a limb with this one, my pick is Jake Shields via Unanimous Decision.
Justin Pierrot: If Jake Shields can survive Dan Henderson’s “H-Bomb” and still win a fight, I don’t see what Hector Lombard has for him that should make me believe the Cuban-Australian judoka is going to win. In fact, I’m going to say that you should expect this to be a 3 round redux of Shields vs. Henderson. Jake Shields via Unanimous Decision.
Allen Strk: On Tuesday, I wrote about how Jake Shields has been constantly overlooked over the past year. His performances against one-punch knockout power fighters, who were bigger than him are noteworthy. The difference with Hector Lombard is that he won’t gas out like Dan Henderson and Tyron Woodley did. Lombard may fatigue, but he’ll always push the pace and knows how to work inside the clinch. Shields has shown countless times that he can out-grapple and control almost all welterweights. Lombard is on a different level as a welterweight. I’m buying into this hype train, who has scary power and can withstand being held against the fence. If Yushin Okami couldn’t hold Lombard down for an extended period of time, I doubt Shields can. Then you have to consider that their won’t be much of a height discrepancy, unlike Lombard’s fight against Okami. This will end in highlight reel fashion. Hector Lombard via 1st round KO
Callum Leslie: I’m a fan of Jake Shields. He’s proven that he can hang with the best of them, and even Demian Maia couldn’t beat him on the ground. How ridiculous is it that Shields beat Woodley in June, but now Woodley is one fight away from the title and Shields is being fed to the cash black hole that is Hector Lombard? Hopefully he wins here and gets some respect for a change! Jake Shields by Unanimous Decision
Nikita Krylov vs. Ovince St. Preux
Jeremy Brand: This is one where I am going to toss a coin and keep it as simple as that. Ovince St. Preux via Round 1 TKO.
Justin Pierrot: Nikita Krylov is 50/50 in the UFC, in terms of record and exciting performances. Based on his previous performance, though, I believe the cut down to 205 will be nothing but beneficial for the young grappling ace. The man’s got a metric butt-load of different submission victories to his name, and demonstrated some serious KO power in his win against Walt Harris. OSP is good, and a testament to the old Strikeforce Challengers developmental system, but I just can’t help but pick “The Al Capone” here. Nikita Krylov via Round 3 Submission.
Allen Strk: Krylov went from being the main punchline in the heavyweight division to being on the main card of a UFC pay-per-view. All it takes is one knockout and taking a fight on short notice to get some credence apparently. I’m still skeptical of his cardio based off that dreadful fight against Soa Palelei. He could blame it on the octagon jitters all he wants, but he was clearly gassed by the middle of the second round. St. Preux is an intriguing specimen, who knows how to utilize his reach and stay composed. Unless Krylov can make this fight ugly and try to dirty box him, this is St. Preux’s fight too lose. His pace is pretty outstanding for a light heavyweight, which is a bad recipe for a slow heavyweight with endurance issues. By the second round, he’ll overwhelm Krylov with his relentless pace and quick movement. Ovince St. Preux via 2nd round TKO
Callum Leslie: Krylov is a monster. He was injured in his first fight against Paleilei but I’m excited to see what he can do at light heavyweight. Krylov has a typical Eastern European record (ie. inflated with quick wins against people who’s career records still stand at 0-1), but I think he’s the real deal. Nikita Krylov via 1st round TKO.
