The pay-per-view that has been long awaited by all fight fans is finally here. It doesn’t get much better than two title fights, along with a heavyweight fight that has major implications as a potential number one contender. You’ve seen the countless promo clips of Chris Weidman knocking out Anderson Silva, along with Ronda Rousey flipping off Miesha Tate countless times.
The promos have been beaten like a drum to the point, where the fights have to come to fruition already. Obviously you want to promote a pay-per-view as much as possible, but now I’m saying to myself to let’s get this going already. That’s how excited I am for this event. This is a stacked card from top to bottom, which is why December 28th is essentially Christmas for many fight fans. The headman of MMA Sucka Jeremy Brand joins me to preview the entire main card.
Five questions: UFC 168 Preview
1. With the featherweight division in need of more contenders, does a win for Dustin Poirier or Diego Brandao distance themselves from the pack or is this a fight just to stay relevant in the division?
Strk: In Poirier’s case, it would distance himself with a win. He’s always been on the cusp of being a top five featherweight and then loses the fight that would elevate him into being a top five featherweight. We saw that in his epic fight with Chan Sung Jung, followed by Cub Swanson. Brandao was a hot commodity coming off TUF 14, where he was one of the can’t miss prospects. He hasn’t exactly made a huge splash, despite being 3-1 in the UFC. I’m sure he realizes that and knows that this is the perfect stage to finally make a major impression.
For Brandao if he can connect on his powerful striking combinations, while fighting at a high pace for as long as possible then he’s someone that people can start talking about in the featherweight division. That’s always been the question about him, if he can control his over-aggressive style while not gassing out against top-level opponents. Poirier continues to improve his striking, which was shown in his last victory against Erik Koch. He knocked him down on two occasions in the first round, which is impressive considering how skilled Koch is on his feet. If he can continue to mix up his strikes and use his speed advantage to frustrate Brandao, then will see him finally see him have another fight against a top five opponent.
Brand: About four fights back , we were talking about Dustin Poirier being the next possible contender in the featherweight division. However Chan Sung Jung stepped in and stopped that train in its tracks. Since that fight he has gone 2-1 and hasn’t ever looked the same. A decent outing in his last fight against Erik Koch – picking up a decision victory, but it doesn’t lead me to believe he is the next big thing.
On the other side we have Diego Brandao who is riding a three-fight winning streak and is about as explosive as they come. With a win over Poirier, he does step himself up in to that upper echelon I believe. So while I say that it might not be a huge victory for Poirier, it is for Brandao.
2. Is Fabricio Cameos anything more than just an opponent to feed to Jim Miller? Many people rolled their eyes when this matchup was announced.
Strk: It sure seems that way. This matchup was announced and people had no idea how to respond to it. It was only last year; where Miller was one win away from a title shot. For him to be put in a matchup against someone relatively unknown was a head scratcher. Cameos is very dangerous on the ground and it would be wise for Miller not to get into a jiu-jitsu match with him. He is much better off keeping the fight standing and picking Cameos apart.
Miller knows how to mix up his strikes well followed up by a double leg takedown. You’ll never see him be predictable with his striking, which is why fans love watching him. The only concern for Miller in this fight would have to be on the ground. He loves going for submissions, but Cameos is one of the stronger and more skilled lightweights on the ground. If he gets careless, it won’t take long for Cameos to either take his back or top position. This is a great opportunity for Miller to start a new winning streak, but he needs to be cautious on the ground and time his takedowns properly.
Brand: Jim Miller is a dazzling fighter, as is Fabricio Camoes, however something about this fight does absolutely nothing for me. In terms of your question, I do not see Miller being about to steam roll right through him. Cameos has a decent standup and a slick submission game. Will he win this fight? Yes, but will it be quick? No.
3. Josh Barnett has shown in the past that his way of winning is by his catch wrestling and relentless pace. Can he manhandle Travis Browne in similar fashion to what he did to Frank Mir?
Strk: I’m sure Browne knows what Barnett is going to do, based on Barnett’s past fights. There isn’t anything unpredictable that catches you off guard when you watch a series of Josh Barnett fights. That’s not a knock on him; it just shows how successful he has been by constantly forcing his opponents into fighting his style. When he gets a hold of you, it’s hard to get him off without being taken down or taking significant damage.
While Browne is six foot seven and a tremendous athlete, it was surprising to see how easily Alistair Overeem got him against the cage. Overeem simply forced him into the cage, before using his strength to position himself into landing his patented knees to the body. Barnett may not be as strong as Overeem, but his cardio is outstanding for a heavyweight. You won’t see him fatigue, after one heavy barrage of punches and become vulnerable when the fight is standing.
This is a fascinating matchup, where the fight can end in so many ways. Both fighters are known for their power, but both have shown their ability to submit their opposition. Barnett could manhandle Browne, especially if it goes to the latter rounds. We haven’t seen Browne get tested in the later rounds against a top-level heavyweight. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Barnett won in similar fashion, although it wouldn’t be as quickly as what Barnett did to Mir. Don’t expect Browne to crumble as quickly as Mir did though, we’ve seen that he can take heavy punishment.
Brand: One day I pick Barnett, the next day I pick Browne. I have a tough time choosing my side in this one. While Barnett is one of my favorite heavyweight fighters, Browne has shown he can beat some top-notch opponents (insert Alistair Overeem.)
I do believe if Barnett gets this fight to the ground and utilizes his catch-wrestling, this will not be a fun night for Browne.
4. Do you buy Miesha Tate’s theory on why she’s going to beat Ronda Rousey? She has constantly repeated herself in several interviews saying how her emotions were the reason for her first loss against Rousey. Do you believe it was actual emotions or a lack of ability and could you see her pulling off the upset?
Strk: I can certainly believe that theory, considering that she’s had so much time to remember that fight and improve as a fighter. There are some fights that you remember, where the loser of the fight realizes that they were careless and let the emotions of wanting to “punch their opponent in the face” get the best of them. The Brock Lesnar-Frank Mir feud was a prime example of that. I’m not saying Tate is going to come in and brutalize Rousey. The theory is that she just kept pushing forward, without respecting her opponent’s ability similar to what Lesnar did in his first fight against Mir. I’m sure she knows and respects Rousey’s ability on the ground now, regardless of the personal animosity.
Now the counter argument for her theory is that I haven’t noticed much of a change in her fighting style. She still tends to push forward, while leaving her face far too open. Even though Rousey’s striking isn’t very good, she is constantly evolving and can land a takedown in an instant moment. Tate needs to pace herself and not get into a wild brawl right away. That would prove that she didn’t learn anything from her first loss and that she’s playing into Rousey’s game plan. The more she can keep the fight standing and frustrate Rousey, the more it’ll better her chances for the monumental upset. I’d lean more towards emotion than her actual fighting ability from her first defeat, but she needs to stop being reckless. Her loss to Cat Zingano proved that she needs to defend herself better.
Brand: I don’t buy the whole emotion card, but I do see this fight being a tad bit different from the first. I also see it being different from any of Rousey’s past fights as well.
Tate has all of the ability to be able to beat Rousey, however it won’t happen for her at UFC 168. Tate will deliver a good beating on Rousey during the first round and be the first fighter to take the champ outside of the first stanza. However the second round will be vintage Rousey and she will win by some sort of submission, after not finishing Tate off with her signature arm bar.
5. Do you see Chris Weidman relying more on his wrestling and ground control? When focused, it doesn’t take Anderson Silva long to rock his opponent and then finish the fight. Silva is simply too dynamic for anyone, while the fight is standing and he remains focused.
Strk: That’s essentially how the fight will play out. Weidman isn’t going to have much success in striking with Silva. I still get goose bumps watching Silva pick apart the likes of Yushin Okami and Forrest Griffin. That was when he was focused and at his best proving to everyone that he is the best fighter in the world. That chip has come back and now he has something to prove. Obviously Weidman is better than the fighters I mentioned, but he still isn’t that good of a striker to defeat Silva standing twice. The whole theory of Weidman can stand and strike with Silva for as long as he wants is silly.
Just like in his win over Demian Maia and in the first round against Mark Munoz, Weidman will rely on his wrestling and look to punish Silva on the ground. When Silva has gotten taken down in the past, you see how quickly he locks in his guard and didn’t allow someone like Chael Sonnen to pass his guard for better positioning. Weidman is more advanced on the ground, which makes it an intriguing chess match if the fight goes to the ground. He’s so confident in his ability that he’ll go for a side control position or a heel hook in a matter of moments.
That’s what puts Weidman into a league of his own because he doesn’t get fazed out by Silva and will look for whatever he feels is necessary to win the fight. You don’t see him be hesitant like Maia or Vitor Belfort did or get reckless like Sonnen did on two occasions. That being said, Ray Longo and Matt Serra are excellent coaches and will realize what’s the best way in defeating Silva. They will realize that Weidman will have to go back to his bread-and-butter in making the fight ugly to retain the title.
Brand: I think if Weidman is going to win this fight, it will be due to his wrestling and ground control. He will have to tire Anderson out and take him down at will, basically the same way Chael Sonnen did in their first fight.
But that is not going to be the case on Saturday night. Silva is going to come out with a fire lit under his ass and finish Weidman within the first two minutes. That is my opinion and I am sticking to it.
You can follow me on twitter at @Allen_Strk & be sure to follow @MMASucka where Jeremy makes sure you are updated with the latest news and updates.
