Let’s be honest: Every now and then it’s fun to get down into the nitty-gritty statistics and see if we can’t perform some MMAth. It helps us analyze future fights and make predictions based on previous history. Fans of all sports do it, so why can’t we? It can help us look for potential trends in a fighter as well. So, with thanks to Sherdog and FightMetric.com for the raw data, let’s examine the co-main event of the upcoming UFC Fight Night 38: Alexander Gustafsson vs. Jimi Manuwa.
Stats for Suckas: Alexander Gustafsson vs Jimi Manuwa
Statistics |
Alexander Gustafsson |
Jimi Manuwa |
| Age | 26 | 34 |
| Camp | AllStars/Alliance MMA | Keddles Gym/Nova Forca BJJ |
| Record | 15-2 | 14-0 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Reach | 81.0″ | 79.5″ |
| Win Percentage | 9 (T)KO (60%) 3 Submissions (20%) 3 Decisions (20%) |
13 (T)KOs (93%) 1 Submission (7%) |
| Loss Percentage | 1 Submission (50%) 1 Decision (50%) |
N/A |
| Last (T)KO Victory | Dec. 30th, 2012, over Vladimir Matyushenko | Oct. 26th, 2013, over Ryan Jimmo |
| Last Submission Victory | Feb. 27th, 2011, over James Te Huna | Feb. 7th, 2009, over Jamie Hearn |
| Last Decision Victory | Dec. 08th, 2012, over Mauricio Rua | N/A |
| Last (T)KO Loss | N/A | N/A |
| Last Submission Loss | Apr. 10th, 2010, to Phil Davis | N/A |
| Last Decision Loss | Sep. 21st, 2013, to Jon Jones | N/A |
| Submission Victories by Method | RNC x3 (100%) | Guillotine x1 (100%) |
| Submission Losses by method | Anaconda x1 (100%) | N/A |
| Prior UFC Main Events | 1 | 0 |
| Most Significant Strikes Received in a Fight | 134, vs. Jon Jones, on Sep. 21st, 2013 | 36, vs. Ryan Jimmo, on Oct. 26th, 2013 |
| Decision Victories in the UFC | 2 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.11 | 4.82 |
| Striking Accuracy | 37% | 64% |
| Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute | 3.21 | 2.96 |
| Striking Defense | 49% | 35% |
| Average Takedown Attempts per 15 Min. | 1.98 | 1.82 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 39% | 43% |
| Takedown Defense Percentage | 87% | 78% |
| Average Submission per 15 Min. | 0.9 | 0.61 |
| Average Submission Completion Rate | 40.64% | 36.26% |
| Most Significant Strikes Landed in a Fight | 110, vs. Jon Jones, on Sep. 21st, 2013 | 53, vs. Kyle Kingsbury, on Sep. 29th, 2012 |
| Total Fight Time | 2 hrs, 3 min, 2 sec | 1 hr, 7 min, 49 sec |
First off, this is not a fight that should be headlining an internet-only card. Alexander Gustafsson, after his war with Jon Jones last year, should at the very least be main-carding a UFC on FOX event. However, that didn’t happen, and Gustafsson was given what many consider a “gimme” opponent in Jimi Manuwa. I don’t believe it’s a “gimme,” but it’s close. Manuwa has not faced the level of competition that “The Mauler” has, but with the string of finishes he’s had, and his age, I can see the UFC rushing him along in hopes of building him as an exciting challenger for the Light Heavyweight Champion.
Jimi Manuwa hits hard and is strong as an ox, but outside of heavy low-kicks, I don’t see him having much to deal with the longer Swede. Alexander Gustafsson is a boxer in a world of punchers, and will use that to keep his Nigerian-born, UK-raised foe confounded. “The Mauler” is also a better grappler, too. I expect Gustafsson to continue building on the success he had against Jones, and batter a game “Poster Boy” for the better part of 4 rounds before getting a TKO victory.
