Let’s be honest: Every now and then it’s fun to get down into the nitty-gritty statistics and see if we can’t perform some MMAth. It helps us analyze future fights and make predictions based on previous history. Fans of all sports do it, so why can’t we? It can help us look for potential trends in a fighter as well. So, with thanks to Sherdog and FightMetric.com for the raw data, let’s examine the main event of the upcoming UFC Fight Night 26: Chael Sonnen vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua.
Chael Sonnen
|
Stats
|
Mauricio Rua
|
| 36 |
Age |
31 |
| Team Quest/Reign TC |
Camp |
Universidade da Luta |
| 27-13-1 |
Record |
21-7 |
| Southpaw |
Stance |
Orthodox |
| 74.0″ |
Reach |
76.0″ |
|
|
|
| 7 (T)KO (26%) |
Win Percentage |
18 (T)KO 86% |
| 4 Submissions (15%) |
|
1 Submission (4%) |
| 16 Decisions (59%) |
|
2 Decisions (10%) |
| 4 (T)KO (31%) |
Loss Percentage |
2 (T)KO (28.5%) |
| 8 Submissions (62%) |
|
2 Submissions (28.5%) |
| 1 Decision (8%) |
|
3 Decisions (43%) |
| Oct. 27th, 2006, over |
Last (T)KO Victory |
Aug. 4th, 2012, over |
| Kyacey Uscola |
|
Brandon Vera |
| Oct. 8th, 2011, over |
Last Submission Victory |
Oct. 21st, 2006, over |
| Brian Stann |
|
Kevin Randleman |
| Jan. 28th, 2012, over |
Last Decision Victory |
Dec. 31st, 2006, over |
| Michael Bisping |
|
Kazuhiro Nakamura |
| Apr. 27th, 2013, to |
Last (T)KO Loss |
Mar. 19th, 2011, to |
| Jon Jones |
|
Jon Jones |
| Aug. 7th, 2010, to |
Last Submission Loss |
Sep. 22nd, 2007, to |
| Anderson Silva |
|
Forest Griffin |
| July 5th, 2004, to |
Last Decision Loss |
Dec. 8th, 2012, to |
| Keiichiro Yamamiya |
|
Alexander Gustafsson |
| Forearm Choke x1 (25%) |
Submission Victories |
Kneebar x1 (100%) |
| Arm-Triangle x1 (25%) |
by Method |
|
| Punches x1 (25%) |
|
|
| Brabo Choke x1 (25%) |
|
|
| Triangle x4 (50%) |
Submission Losses |
RNC x1 (50%) |
| Armbar x3 (37.5%) |
by Method |
Guillotine x1 (50%) |
| Guillotine x1 (12.5%) |
|
|
| 7 |
Most TDs in a fight |
8 |
| 4 |
Most times taken down |
7 |
|
in a fight |
|
| 5 |
Decision Victories |
0 |
|
in the UFC |
|
| 3.19 |
Significant Strikes |
3.62 |
|
Landed Per Minute |
|
| 44% |
Striking Accuracy |
51% |
| 1.05 |
Significant Strikes |
2.34 |
|
Absorbed Per Minute |
|
| 65% |
Striking Defense |
54% |
| 3.83 |
Average Takedown |
2.38 |
|
Attempts per 15 Min. |
|
| 60% |
Takedown Accuracy |
49% |
| 67% |
Takedown Defense |
44% |
|
Percentage |
|
| 0.26 |
Average Submission |
1.07 |
|
Attempts Per 15 Min. |
|
| 60.06% |
Average Submission |
5.40% |
|
Completion Rate |
|
| 91, vs. Yushin Okami on |
Most Significant Strikes |
96, vs. Dan Henderson |
| Oct. 24th, 2009 |
Landed in a Fight |
on Nov. 19th, 2011 |
| 6 hrs, 24 min, 14 sec |
Total Fight Time |
4 hrs, 19 min, 47 sec |
Now, let’s look at this objectively. Not only has Mauricio Rua struggled with wrestlers in the past, he’s also never won a decision in the UFC. His opponent, Chael Sonnen, has seldom struggled in taking opponents down, and has 5 decision victories in the UFC. Sonnen also has a better idea of when to attempt a submission than Rua, and has the top control ability necessary to completely shut down “Shogun’s” much-vaunted half-guard game. “The Gangster from West Linn” takes this by unanimous decision, and don’t be shocked if there’s a 10-8 round in there somewhere.
