Let’s be honest: Every now and then it’s fun to get down into the nitty-gritty statistics and see if we can’t perform some MMAth. It helps us analyze future fights and make predictions based on previous history. Fans of all sports do it, so why can’t we? It can help us look for potential trends in a fighter as well. So, with thanks to Sherdog and FightMetric.com for the raw data, let’s examine the main event of the upcoming UFC Fight Night 28: Glover Teixeira vs. Ryan Bader.
Stats for Suckas: Teixeira vs Bader
Glover Teixeira |
Stats |
Ryan Bader |
| 33 | Age | 30 |
| The Pit | Camp | Power MMA Team |
| 21-2 | Record | 15-3 |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 76″ | Reach | 74″ |
| 12 (T)KO (57%) | Win Percentage | 6 (T)KO (40%) |
| 6 Submissions (29%) | 4 Submissions (27%) | |
| 3 Decisions (14%) | 5 Decisions (33%) | |
| 1 (T)KO (50%) | Loss Percentage | 1 (T)KO (33%) |
| 1 Decisions (50%) | 2 Submissions (67%) | |
| Oct. 13th, 2012, over | Last (T)KO Victory | Nov. 19th, 2011, over |
| Fabio Maldonado | Jason Brilz | |
| May 25th, 2013, over | Last Submission Victory | Jan. 26th, 2013, over |
| James Te Huna | Vladimir Matyushenko | |
| Jan 26th, 2013, over | Last Decision Victory | Feb. 26th, 2012, over |
| Quinton Jackson | Quinton Jackson | |
| June 7th, 2002, to | Last (T)KO Loss | Aug. 4th, 2012, to |
| Eric Schwartz | Lyoto Machida | |
| N/A | Last Submission Loss | July 2nd, 2011, to |
| Tito Ortiz | ||
| Mar. 26th, 2005, to | Last Decision Loss | N/A |
| Ed Herman | ||
| Guillotine 2x (33.3%) | Submission Victories | Guillotine 1x (25%) |
| RNC 2x (33.3%) | by Method | Choke 1x (25%) |
| Arm-Triangle 1x (16.7%) | Arm Triangle 1x (25%) | |
| Punches x1 (16.7%) | Punches 1x (25%) | |
| N/A | Submission Losses | Guillotine x2 (100%) |
| by Method | ||
| 2 | Fights won via Doctor’s | 0 |
| or Corner Stoppage | ||
| 15 | First Round Finishes | 8 |
| 1 | Decision Victories | 4 |
| in the UFC | ||
| 4.69 | Significant Strikes | 2.56 |
| Landed Per Minute | ||
| 47% | Striking Accuracy | 38% |
| 1.96 | Significant Strikes | 1.54 |
| Absorbed Per Minute | ||
| 58% | Striking Defense | 72% |
| 3.12 | Average Takedown | 3.18 |
| Attempts per 15 Min. | ||
| 75% | Takedown Accuracy | 43% |
| 100%* | Takedown Defense | 50% |
| Percentage | ||
| 1.04 | Average Submission | 0.48 |
| Attempts Per 15 Min. | ||
| 68.1% | Average Submission | 100% |
| Completion Rate | ||
| 85, vs. Fabio Maldonado | Most Significant Strikes | 55, vs. Quinton Jackson |
| on Oct. 13th, 2012 | Landed in a Fight | on Feb. 25th, 2012 |
| 2 hrs, 7 min, 1 sec | Total Fight Time | 2hrs, 1 min, 2 sec |
Even going by the limited FightMetric data available for Glover Teixeira, it’s hard to see how – based on killer instinct, striking volume, steady pace of submission attempts, and willingness to go for takedowns – he could lose this fight. In fact, I think this is actually a very bad match-up for poor Ryan Bader. His takedown accuracy does not appear to be match for Teixeira, nor does his defense, and both this striking pace and accuracy are well below the Brazilian murder machine’s. I predict that Glover Teixeira will win this by TKO in the first round.
* Statistics only include fights analyzed by FightMetric, in WEC and UFC.
