Let’s be honest: Every now and then it’s fun to get down into the nitty-gritty statistics and see if we can’t perform some MMAth. It helps us analyze future fights and make predictions based on previous history. Fans of all sports do it, so why can’t we? It can help us look for potential trends in a fighter as well. So, with thanks to Sherdog and FightMetric.com for the raw data, let’s examine the main event of the upcoming UFC Fight Night 31: Tim Kennedy vs. Rafael Natal.
Tim Kennedy vs Rafael Natal
|
Tim Kennedy |
Rafael Natal |
| Age | 34 | 30 |
| Camp | Jackson’s MMA | Gracie Fusion |
| Record | 16-4 | 17-4-1 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Reach | 73″ | 70″ |
| Win Percentage | 5 (T)KO (31%) 8 Submissions (50%) 3 Decisions (19%) |
3 (T)KO (18%) 8 Submissions (47%) 6 Decisions (35%) |
| Loss Percentage | 1 (T)KO (25%) 3 Decisions (75%) |
3 (T)KO (75%) 1 Decision (25%) |
| Last (T)KO Victory | Dec. 29th, 2007, over Elias Rivera | May 21st, 2010, over Travis Lutter |
| Last Submission Victory | Jan. 12th, 2013, over Trevor Smith | Jan. 26th, 2013, over Sean Spencer |
| Last Decision Victory | July 6th, 2013, over Roger Gracie | Sep. 4th, 2013, over Tor Troeng |
| Last (T)KO Loss | Aug. 31st, 2001, to Scott Smith | July 11th, 2012, to Andrew Craig |
| Last Submission Loss | N/A | N/A |
| Last Decision Loss | July 14th, 2012, to Luke Rockhold | Sep. 15th, 2010, to Rich Attonito |
| Submission Victories by Method | Guillotine 2x (25%) RNC 2x (25%) Punches 2x (25%) N/S Choke (12.5%) Forearm Choke (12.5%) |
RNC 4x (50%) Guillotine 1x (12.5%) Arm Triangle 1x (12.5%) Armbar 1x (12.5%) Keylock (12.5%) |
| Submission Losses by method | N/A | N/A |
| Highest Military Rank | Staff Sergeant | N/A |
| Current Winning Streak | 2 fights | 3 fights |
| Decision Victories in the UFC | 1 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| Striking Accuracy | 51% | 49% |
| Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute | 1.36 | 1.6 |
| Striking Defense | 66% | 64% |
| Average Takedown Attempts per 15 Min. | 2.6 | 2.68 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 36% | 41% |
| Takedown Defense Percentage | 77% | 78% |
| Average Submission per 15 Min. | 0.91 | 0.94 |
| Average Submission Completion Rate | 55.80% | 66.50% |
| Most Significant Strikes Landed in a Fight | 69, on Aug. 21st 2010, against Ronaldo Souza | 73, on July 11th, 2010, against Andrew Craig |
| Total Fight Time | 2 hrs, 57 min, 20 sec | 3 hrs, 11 min, 32 sec |
This fight looks a lot closer on paper than it sounds just talking about it, doesn’t it? The stats of both men are remarkably similar, right down to the fact that their highest strikes in a single fight both came in losses. With that said, Natal has been stopped with strikes 3 times to Kennedy’s 1, and his loss to Andrew Craig shows that he can get caught when he is overly aggressive. So, when you combine that detail with the tremendous submission defense that Kennedy demonstrated in his recent victory over Roger Gracie, you can start to see just who has the edge in this bout. Expect Kennedy to take this, either by late (T)KO or decision.
