With UFC 301 tonight, it’s hard not to get excited. Every matchup of the 14 lined up has the potential for excitement and violence, and fans should expect many finishes.
One of those 14 fights features a clash of lightweights, as Brazilian native Elvis Brener faces off against Kyrgyzstan’s Myktybek Oralbai.
This is easily one of the most exciting fights on the card as both fighters are hot prospects many expect to be title contenders in the future. So far, Brener is 3-0 in the UFC, beating both Guram Kutateladze and Zubaira Tukhugov as a significant underdog. Now he’s an underdog once again against the 12-1 Oralbai who is coming off of his promotional debut win over Uros Medic.
Elves Brenner vs Myktybek Oralbai Official Fight Breakdown
At first glance, this is a relatively binary fight where Oralbai is primarily a wrestler, and Brener, since entering the UFC, has mainly done all of his work in the standup. However, the more you look at it, the more you realize this isn’t a binary fight. While Oralbai is an incredibly effective wrestler, his striking is also excellent, with six wins coming by knockout. While Brener has primarily been using his striking to win in the UFC, before his promotional debut, he won most of his fights using his grappling and scoring 11 wins by submission. This will make the fight much more interesting as neither seems to have a significant advantage anywhere.
Striking
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Starting with the striking, I believe it is close, but Brener will have a slight edge on the feet. Oralbai has shown that he isn’t just a wrestler, scoring 6 KO wins and a beautiful uppercut KO against Hayward Charles shortly before entering the UFC. His striking is clean, with most of his strikes being straight down the pipe. He has an intelligent jab, clean 1-2, and nice counters. However, his striking defense leaves some to be desired, and he has been hurt and wobbled in previous fights against lesser competition.
On the other hand, Brener doesn’t throw as straight, but his striking is also clean, and he has more weapons on the feet. His bodywork is very nice and effective, and he is good at mixing elbows and knees into his combinations. He has sound output and uses his forward pressure to suffocate his opponents and make it easier for him to land big shots.
When these two are standing, I expect fireworks, but I do think Brener will get the better of the exchanges and land the more damaging shots. If Oralbai chooses to stand with him the entire fight, I think Brener has a great shot at finding the finish.
Grappling
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When it comes to grappling, you have to give Oralbai the edge here. Brener has shown excellent TDD thus far, and his offensive wrestling is solid. He is also a high-level BJJ practitioner, with 11 wins by submission. However, Oralbai’s wrestling is on a different level. His timing on the level changes is fantastic. He has an excellent ability to chain wrestle, and once it’s on the ground, he does all of the right things to maintain control. You can see him constantly looking to control the wrists and ankles, and he quickly takes the back.
Because Brener has a high-level BJJ, I don’t think Oralbai will submit him. However, Oralbai can get the takedowns and grind Brener out, landing damaging ground and pound to score on the judge’s scorecards.
Prediction & Bet
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Putting everything together, the most likely outcome here is Oralbai by decision. It comes down to the gap in the offensive grappling being more comprehensive than the gap in the striking. While Brener will succeed more on the feet, Oralbai should be able to hang with him there and use his hands to set up the takedowns. Brener may be able to stuff some of the early shots, but as the fight goes on, Oralbai will land more and more takedowns, which he will use to win the fight.
But when it comes to a bet, always play the numbers. Oralbai is currently a -255 favorite at the time of writing, with Brener as the +215 underdog. This means the Bookies are giving Oralbai an implied probability of about 70% to win the fight. Another way to put it is if these two fought ten times, the Sportsbooks think Oralbai would win 7/10 times. This is a bit wide, and this fight will play out closer than that, so its hard to put money on the Oralbai Moneyline.
However you choose to play it, this should be an incredible war of a fight.
The Verdict
Prediction: Myktybek Oralbai by Decision
Mike’s Bet: Elvis Brener by KO/TKO +1400 0.1 units ($10 to win $140)
Other Worthy Plays: Myktybek Oralbai by Decision +130 – +150
