After their initial encounter this past April at UFC 314, Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes will lock horns for a second time when they meet up next year in the headlining bout at UFC 325. The bout marks the Aussie’s first title defense of his second reign after previously recording five consecutive retentions during his first stint atop the featherweight rankings. Overcoming the odds once more despite his age, “The Great” would regain his strap over the touted Brazilian, becoming the first male fighter over 35 years old from flyweight to lightweight to capture a UFC championship.
The loss to Volkanovski brought Lopes’ momentum to a screeching halt after compiling a staggering five-fight winning streak, which included triumphs over Sodiq Yusuff, Dan Ige and Brian Ortega. While he did manage to down the former title-holder, the precision punching of the Australian proved to be a difficult puzzle to solve, with Lopes losing a close scrap on the cards. Building upon the failures of the past, Lopes got right back to work five months later in the main event of Noche UFC 3, knocking out the soaring Jean Silva in the second round, earning the praise of bettors everywhere, such as at ZoVome.
Although the young and hungry Lopes stands as a dangerous challenger to his seat on the 145-lb throne, Volkanovski has proven time and time again why he is one of the greatest mixed martial artists of all time. Boasting a sizable repertoire of world-class experience and techniques, he possesses all the tools to get the job done in his eighth top-billed pay-per-view contest. If he can get his hand raised at UFC 325, then he can etch his name in the history books as the only two-time featherweight king to successfully defend his belt.
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These are three ways Alexander Volkanovski can defeat Diego Lopes at UFC 325.
1. Volkanovski Can Use Cage to Inflict Damage, Nail Takedowns
Throughout his journey in the UFC, Volkanovski has developed into a competitor that can utilize any part of the Octagon to his advantage. One of these parts happens to be the cage, which the Aussie has used to great effect in his past tilts.
In the opening round of his first tussle with Lopes, he quickly closed the distance to pin his opponent on the cage wall, pelting his adversary with punches and knees while nailing a slick inside trip in the closing seconds of the stanza. For Volkanovski, getting the challenger to the fence could prove to be a valuable part of his gameplan, as it will allow him to not only deal damage, but also wear down the gas tank of the younger athlete.
In his eight bouts with the UFC, Lopes has gone the full distance just four times, with only one of those lasting 25 minutes, which was his clash with Volkanovski at UFC 314. Although he did manage to take serious threats like Ige and Ortega to the cards, in those particular matches, the Brazilian was largely in control from start to finish. The Volkanovski scrap, however, was a much more competitive outing for both individuals, making it one of the few times Lopes had ever actually been tested in his tenure with the promotion.
The champion has made use of the cage to great effect in his other fights as well, such as in his two contests with then lightweight incumbent Islam Makhachev, making the Dagestani carry his weight and score visible damage on him. He also used the wall to prevent his fifth would-be title usurper, Yair Rodríguez, from locking in triangle chokes when Volkanovski wound up inside his guard.
Considering his proficiency in five-round championship appearances, Volkanovski has a battle-tested gas tank that has and will continue to be a problem for Lopes. If “The Great” can keep the Lobo Gym MMA product on the fence, then he can effectively tire him out while putting the hurt on him.
2. Volkanovski Must Be Mindful of Distance Management
Possessing an arm length of 71 1/2 inches, Volkanovski holds a reach advantage over most of the opposition in the featherweight class. Even in his 155-lb battles with the aforementioned Makhachev, the Aussie still held a 1 1/2-inch edge. Opposite Lopes, who has a reach of 72 1/2 inches, the incumbent’s usual lead now becomes a slight disadvantage.
Despite losing the battle of length right out of the gate, Volkanovski has shown a solid ability to gauge the distance between himself and his competition. Against power-punchers like Lopes, Chad Mendes and Ilia Topuria, the New South Wales native dazzled fans by being able to land his strikes while simultaneously avoiding all return fire with superb body and head movement.
In his first meeting with Lopes, Volkanovski was able to get out of the way of most of the highly-damaging shots sent his way, outlanding him 165 blows to the Brazilian’s 71. Granted, he was dropped to the canvas at one point after absorbing a staggering straight in the second round that had him in trouble.
His gauging of the range also failed him in his encounter with Topuria in their title affair in 2024. Allowing the Spaniard to get on the inside, Volkanovski was emphatically starched after receiving a thudding right hook from the now lightweight king.
While he cannot remain perfect for an entire five-round assignment, the champion is going to have to be nearly that, as the hard-hitting Lopes holds an alarming amount of power in his fists. If he can navigate the distance in reach while making sure to not get hit as much as possible, then Volkanovski can take a valuable weapon away from the Brazilian.
3. Volkanovski Can Use Volume Striking to Overwhelm Lopes with Pressure
During his time in the organization, Volkanovski has garnered a plethora of accolades other than his numerous championship defenses. Some that stand out include the highest striking differential in UFC featherweight division history at 3.09 and the third highest significant strike percentage in UFC featherweight division history at 56.5%. Needless to say, the champion tends to throw a lot of blows in his matches, which can be a major advantage in his rematch with Lopes.
In his 17 tilts under the UFC banner, the dominant Aussie has logged more than 100 significant strikes in seven of them, with the most being 214 in his second belt retention against Ortega back in 2021. Keeping a firm handle on the gas pedal for the large portion of his fights, Volkanovski is constantly keeping his opponent’s guard busy with either a precise jab, kick or threatening a takedown.
Because of his tendency to end his trips to the Octagon inside the distance, Lopes has hardly ever thrown more than a 100 blows himself. In fact, he has only ever accomplished this feat just once, dating back to his main card dance with Ortega at UFC 306. Though Volkanovski has been finished three times as a professional, Lopes was not able to get the job done earlier this year at UFC 314, with the older athlete drowning him with non-stop circling attacks and making him pay for every punch he missed.
Stating the obvious, Lopes is the clear stronger competitor in this contest, given he has already floored Volkanovski once before. But, given his ability to see the holes in his foe’s defenses, and his rapid rate of attacks, the champion can really put a strain on the challenger’s cardio and keep his arms occupied if he can have his standup game active the whole fight.
