The UFC PPV machine returns this weekend in Chicago. The UFC 319 main event features the middleweight champion, Dricus du Plessis and challenger, Khamzat Chimaev, is extremely intriguing. We have the champion, South Africa’s du Plessis, who is enjoying an incredible UFC career thus far. Riding an 11 fight undefeated run, he’s picked off some of the biggest and best names the division has to offer. Former champions Sean Strickland, Robert Whittaker and Israel Adesanya have all fallen to Stillknocks, as have Darren Till, Derek Bruson and Brad Tavares, amongst others.
Chimaev is undefeated at 14-0 with 12 finishes. He’s beaten two former champions in Whittaker and Kamaru Usman, as well as picking off names such as Gilbert Burns and Li Jingliang. There is no doubt about his dominance; however, it’s his activity that has had people questioning his championship ability. After his debut, he featured in three fights in a little over two months. Since then, however, he’s pulled out of four fights and had extended periods of time outside of the octagon.
We take a look at the UFC 319 main event and why, despite being a fascinating fight, it’s so hard to analyse.
UFC 319 Main Event
Styles Make Fights
It’s very clear that styles make fights. du Plessis had a wild style that, on paper, shouldn’t work. He does a lot of things against the textbook. He falls over his front foot a lot when throwing strikes, forcing him to lose his balance. Throwing from the hip with his chin high and shoulders low also leaves him open to counters. On top of this, he fights with his mouth wide open, leaving his jaw exposed for a potentially big shot.
Chimaev is similarly wild with his strikes. He swings wildly when in the pocket and will shoot for the takedown whenever he gets the chance. Often, as he is changing levels so abruptly, it makes fans think that he’s been caught with a big shot, however, this is rarely the case. Due to his reliance on the wrestling game, he, like his UFC 319 opponent, leaves himself open to shots. To land the takedown effectively, he can’t have his hands high, leaving his defence open.
Lack of Tape
Du Plessis has a lot more fights at a high level than Chimaev. He holds a record of 23-2, of which nine have been in the UFC. Before this, he competed for KSW and EFC Africa. He’s only gone the distance three times in his career, twice across five rounds against Strickland. He went into the fourth round against Adesanya when he made his first title defence. This suggests that there is plenty of tape on du Plessis. With that being said, he only averages 13.75 minutes per fight.
Chimaev has only gone the distance twice, against Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman. He’s finished nine fights in the first round. Since October 2023, he’s featured for just 3:34 in the octagon, all of which was dominant against Whittaker. He averages just 6.92 fight time, meaning that for du Plessis, there isn’t a lot of tape to watch on his opponent.
The ‘What if’ Element
Although this is the same for each and every fight that has ever taken place in MMA, the UFC 319 main event poses more questions than most. Of course, we won’t be able to answer these questions until fight night, however, that’s what makes this fight so hard to analyse prior to Bruce Buffer’s introductions.
What if Khamzat Chimaev does everything that he’s predicting? What if he does everything that he has done to each and every other fighter he’s faced? If Khamzat, who has a takedown accuracy of 46% and averages 4.31 takedowns per fight, sprints across the octagon, takes du Plessis down and dominates him on the floor, all pre-fight analysis goes in the bin. That very much could happen; he’s done it to almost everyone else.
If this happens, what is DDP like off his back? Bruson had him in compromising positions and there’s little doubt that Chimaev is a better grappler than Brunson.
But, on the other hand, what if du Plessis drags Chimaev into deep waters? What if he defends Chimaev’s early takedown attempts and is able to keep the fight where he wants it? We’ve only seen Borz go into the third round on two occasions and on both occasions, his gas tank seemed to really fail him.
In an ideal world, Chimaev will be taken into deep waters so we can finally answer the questions that are asked about his conditioning and stamina; however, as of yet, we don’t know whether this will happen. All will be revealed in Chicago with the UFC 319 main event.
