One of the most underrated UFC events of the year is finally here. While it may not feature any superstars like Georges St-Pierre or Jon Jones, UFC 164 has one of the best all-around main cards of the year. It features some of the best lightweight fighters in the world, along with a heavyweight matchup that people have been waiting to see for years.
Five questions for UFC 164
Then the long awaited rematch of Benson Henderson and Anthony Pettis is finally here. I’ve labeled UFC 164, as the real fans’ pay-per-view of the year because it’s that good. I’m with Thinesh John, who is going to preview the card with me. He is the Asia correspondent for the site and someone that I’ve been meaning to write with to preview an UFC event.
1. Dustin Poirier and Erik Koch are among the most talented fighters in the UFC that are under 25 years old. Do you see this is as fight of the night and can Poirier finally beat a top ten fighter?
Thinesh: I could not have picked a better bout to kick-start the main card. Both fighters need a win to push them towards title contention. Any match-up with Dustin Poirier in it screams “Fight of the Night”; he’s bound to bring ruptures around arenas. The fact that Poirier fights to finish is testament to the American Top Team native’s ability in the featherweight division.
Although he’s come up short against some of the division’s top contenders in “The Korean Zombie” and Cub Swanson, the fact that he’s still 24 years old is quite remarkable, really. The aforementioned setbacks would have made Poirier a better fighter in my eyes and I won’t be surprised if he squeezes out an unanimous decision victory in this one.
Parallels could be drawn with Erik Koch too. Despite the massive reputation he’s achieved in less than two octagon outings, it’s going to take a while for fans to consider having Koch in the title picture once again. With Ricardo Lamas running rampant over Koch in January, the latter needs to issue a statement that he belongs at the top of the pile.
Poirier matches up really well with Koch, given the clash of styles. While Poirier possess an extensive MMA game, Koch will be looking to get the better of him in the stand-up department. Is this fight of the night? Well, with Pettis versus Henderson as the headliner, anything could happen. That is a tough call.
Allen: I’m expecting this fight to end in a finish, while Pettis and Henderson will likely go to the judges. Therefore I don’t think this will be fight of the night, since most fight of the nights end in a competitive decision. This is a tough matchup for Poirier mainly due to Koch’s striking ability, along with him never being submitted. Koch’s submission defense is superb due to his excellent positioning.
He can still use his ground game to his advantage by using ground-and-pound on Koch. It helps that he’s been very active, while Koch could very well still be rusty even after the lough loss to Ricardo Lamas. This is arguably the toughest fight to predict, due to how similar they are. It may come down to whoever lands the most significant strikes to rock their opponent, although eventually someone will break in this fight. Poirier needs to keep moving to avoid Koch’s high kick or swift jabs. Both fighters are too powerful on their feet and on the ground to leave this to the judges.
2. Brandon Vera has made the move back up to heavyweight. Do you see the transition benefiting him or will he be even more prone to getting knocked out?
Thinesh: Brandon Vera’s tenure with the UFC has been somewhat topsy-turvy. He’s found some success at both Light Heavyweight and Heavyweight, but the one thing that we’ve not been seeing is consistency. Getting results and wins is one thing, but to do that on a constant basis is another. Although his losses have come against top tier opponents like Werdum, Couture and Jones, his performance against “Shogun” in his last UFC appearance was fantastic. I ran out of superlatives for Vera, even though he succumbed to a knockout in the 4th frame.
Is Vera still relevant? That’s the most important question in my eyes. The shuffling between divisions will not help unless he starts stringing good performances together.
The last time Vera fought at heavyweight, Werdum knocked him out. Then five years on, can we see a difference? I hope it’s for the better, though. He’s facing Rothwell will be perfect for him at this point of time. If Vera fails to get a win, I can foresee him being future endeavored soon enough.
Allen: The transition will benefit him until he starts fighting more athletic heavyweights, who are stronger than him. This matchup with Ben Rothwell is perfect for him because he can use his speed and frustrate him with his patent leg kicks. Everyone knows that Rothwell has struggled with cardio in the past. If Vera comes into the fight in great shape and avoids getting caught by Rothwell’s dangerous left hook, then he can use his speed to frustrate him and earn the victory.
The issue with the move to heavyweight is that the division has changed dramatically. A lot of heavyweights are very athletic and aren’t slow-plodding like they were when Vera was a heavyweight. The division has heavyweights like Brendan Schaub, Matt Mitirone, and Travis Browne who are extremely athletic and still powerful enough to take you down or knock you out. It’ll be up to Vera to continue to get stronger and evolve as a fighter, if he wants to last in the heavyweight division. The crop of fighters are far more talented at heavyweight than at light heavyweight in the UFC right now.
3. Many people believe Clay Guida hasn’t been himself in the past two fights. He has been too busy running to avoid his opponents’ strikes and not looking to push the pace like he used to. With Chad Mendes on a three fight winning streak and always looking for a knockout finish, can he force Guida back to his old ways of brawling and making this an exciting fight?
Thinesh: Some people call it running while others say it’s just mad-like footwork with intent. However you see it, Chad “Money” Mendes is no slouch. If Guida thinks about putting on a performance similar to his encounter with Gray Maynard, he’s going to be under more heat than ever.
I like Mendes, a Team Alpha male native with a good balance of striking and wrestling. Then you have Guida, out of the famed Greg Jackson’s camp involved with the subject of controversies because of this style.
By knowing Greg Jackson and his cautious approach to fights, we may see Guida running around the octagon again. But how does Chad Mendes handle that? He could always shoot for a power double and force Guida to fight his game. Then again, let’s not forget that the latter’s is pretty decent at ground-and-pound & top control.
I’d reckon that we see this in two ways: Clay Guida knows he’s under intense scrutiny for the way he fights and that may actually force him to revert back to his old brawling ways. Either that, or he sticks to his current style but engages more.
Allen: Whenever you watch Chad Mendes fight, he’s hard to avoid. He is constantly aggressive and pushes the pace whether it’s with punches or grappling. Even when he fought Jose Aldo, it was constant pressure from him. If he’s not going for the knockout blow, he’ll look for the takedown. Clay Guida couldn’t have asked for a better test right now in his career.
It seems to be that he’s at a crossroads in his career, despite coming off a win against Hatsu Hioki. His standup has always been sloppy and Hioki picked him apart. Even though Guida can take punishment, Mendes has been on a knockout spree ever since his loss to Aldo. Mendes has stated he wants to be the first fighter to ever knock Guida out, so I’m sure his iron chin will be tested throughout the fight. That will lead to him going for takedowns frequently in this fight and try to use his dominant ground control on top.
Many people are counting Guida out going into this fight. If he manages to make this fight into an ugly grappling match, he could very well earn a decision victory. I’m not going to make any guarantee that this fight will be exciting, but we won’t see a repeat of Guida’s performance against Maynard. Mendes doesn’t allow much space, when you’re against him in the octagon. It’s a tough matchup, but it’ll prove if Guida can be a contender in the featherweight division. He would be much better off wrestling with Mendes rather than trying to go punch for punch.
4. Everyone has been waiting to see Frank Mir versus Josh Barnett for years now. Mir struggles with wrestlers, but Barnett lacks knockout power unlike the people that have beaten Mir that were wrestlers like Shane Carwin and Brock Lesnar. Do you see this fight ending on the ground like most people are expecting?
Thinesh: Josh Barnett would be foolish to stand and trade with Frank Mir, given the former’s credentials on the canvas and the number of submission wins he has on his resume. The jackpot’s been hit with this one because it is a question to ponder. Does Barnett have knockout power? I don’t think so. Besides, his bread and butter lies with grappling and I am expecting him to take the fight down and work with ground-and-pound.
As for Frank Mir, well, his stand-up game isn’t all that fancy either but what I can say is his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game is second to none in the heavyweight division. I’m predicting an initial stand-up battle for Mir; anticipate Barnett’s takedown, and then work off his back for a submission.
Both fighters are great grapplers but often times the clash of similar styles result in something entirely different. The thing is, I just can’t see both these guys standing and trading with each other. One or the other will resort to a takedown as the rounds go by.
Allen: I’ve always felt Mir’s grappling was under appreciated. Even though Daniel Cormier embarrassed him in his last fight, he is an Olympic wrestler who has mastered in controlling his opponent. You rarely see Mir get dominated like that against the cage, it’s usually getting overpowered by punches when he’s defeated. Even though his knees haven’t been the same since the motorcycle accident, which hinders his explosiveness for takedowns. He put on a clinic against Roy Nelson and took him down at will.
Josh Barnett won’t allow that, but I’m not expecting him to control Mir against the cage like Cormier did. Also don’t forget that Barnett is always confident and doesn’t feel threatened by Mir, even if the fight goes to the ground. Both fighters seem extremely confident going into this fight and have no problem going anywhere in this fight. It may start off standing, but it’ll only take a minute or two before it goes against the cage or on the ground.
I’m sure the fight will end on the ground in some way, shape, or form. Barnett is always looking to go for the takedown followed by side control or mount to setup a flurry of punches or a choke. That will be his game plan, while Mir has no problem fighting off his back and using his ability to transition to get top position. I’ll be shocked if there is an actual knockout, since Barnett can take massive punishment, although he’s too predictable when it comes to his boxing. You’ll feel the crowd’s energy when the fight goes to the ground because something special could happen, before they erupt in roars when the fight ends on the ground.
5. Speaking of fights that have finally been made, Benson Henderson versus Anthony Pettis is the fight that fans have been clamoring for. It seems to be that Pettis is the trendy pick, after his consecutive first round knockout victories. Will this fight go five rounds and can Pettis withstand Hendrerson’s takedowns?
Thinesh: Pettis has evolved so much as a fighter, since his defeat to Clay Guida where he was literally out-grappled for three rounds. He’s showcased some much-improved wrestling and takedown defense since then. Pettis’ striking though, stands out from most fighters. He finds creative ways to pick his opponents apart and I can see that happening against Henderson in their championship tilt.
In the meantime, Henderson is on a tear with consecutive decision victories, which leads me to believe that his bout with Pettis might end up the same too. Henderson is definitely varied from Pettis’ array of strikes, which may probably prompt him to go for a takedown or two? I won’t be surprised if that happens. Moreover, it’ll be worth noticing how Pettis fares against a guy of Henderson’s ability on the canvas.
It’s a guaranteed slobber-knocker and I can foresee a five-round entertaining war.
Allen: Pettis’ wrestling has improved, but my concern with him is what I have for just about every lightweight when they fight Benson Henderson. Can he withstand Henderson’s size advantage, along with his athleticism and reach? He is such an enigma, when it comes to his style and how unpredictable he can be. It seems like he’s ready to engage by throwing a quick jab and consecutive leg kicks, then he’ll simply double leg his opponent for an instant takedown. For all the criticism he gets due to most of his fights ending in close decisions, Henderson is truly one of best pound for pounds fighters in the world.
This fight will be on its feet a lot before Henderson starts to realize Pettis’ getting comfortable. Everyone knows about the variety of highlight-reel kicks that Pettis’ likes to throw at his opponents. If Henderson sees a moment to take his back or capitalize on a reckless kick, you’ll see him go for a takedown.
Despite the improved wrestling, Pettis won’t be able to snuff many takedown attempts from Henderson. His coach Duke Roufous can make any claim about Henderson’s striking, you still have to be wary of it. When he fought a top-notch boxer in Nate Diaz, he picked him apart especially in the first two rounds with leg kicks and powerful hooks. Pettis is very good off his back and can get back to his feet, which is huge against a wrestler of Henderson’s caliber. This will be a five round classic, where a few extra takedowns may be the difference in the judges’ mind although Pettis has the knockout power to change that from happening.
For everyone that wants to see actual picks, the staff will be making predictions for the main card fights this Friday. It will be posted on the site that morning and you’ll get to see everyone’s true prediction on each fight. This is just a preview article and it will stay like that. I’m still conflicted on a few picks, which is rare these days. This is truly one of the most unpredictable UFC events I’ve seen in ages and I’m really looking forward to the card on Saturday.
You can follow me on twitter at @Allen_Strk and Thinesh at @ThineshJohnMMA for our latest articles and tweets during each UFC event.