Episode 3 was just as eventful as episode 2, as Miesha Tate worked to get under Ronda Rousey’s skin, Julianna Pena turned the majority of house against her with her behavior, and Chris Holdsworth soundly defeated Chris Beal to help Team Cupcake keep control. So, now we have Team Tate’s second pick, “The Happy Warrior” Roxanne Modafferi taking on Team Armbar’s “Ragin'” Jessica Rakoczy. So, with that in mind, let’s take a look at what we might expect from this week’s episode.
TUF 18 Report: Episode 4 Preview
Overcome: Breaking down Rakoczy vs. Modafferi
“Ragin'” Jessica Rakoczy (1-3, 1 N/C) has not had the easiest MMA career to date. Having essentially been thrown to the wolves at the start due to her boxing pedigree, the natural flyweight from Hamilton, ON would fall to Michelle Ould, Zoila Frausto-Gurgel, and Felice Herrig in her first 3 fights. Both Ould (#3) and Frausto-Gurgel (#8) are among the strongest grapplers in the flyweight division, and both were able to finish “Ragin'” in the second round. Felice Herrig (Currently ranked #6 at strawweight) is a high level Muay Thai practitioner, and took Rakoczy to a decision. Things started appeared to turn around in 2010 when the single mother put such a heavy beatdown on Jennifer Scott that the Scott threw in the towel at the end of the 2nd round. This however, would not remain, as Rakoczy tested positive for a banned painkiller and had the win turned into a no contest. After taking her punishment, Rakoczy would return in 2012 and notch her first official win with a KO victory over Kristen Gatz. The former 33-3 boxer, who held lightweight championships for the WIBA, NABA, NABF, WBC, and IBF, is a powerful puncher with a good ability to work the body. While she has struggled with grapplers in the past, Rakoczy acquitted herself well in her preliminary bout with Revelina Berto, getting the win over the talented submission grappler with an armbar variant that has been mistakenly labelled an omoplata.
“The Happy Warrior” Roxanne Modafferi (15-10) is easily the most experienced member of her team, with 11 more fights than even own coach, Miesha Tate. In fact, the only woman involved with the competition who comes close is Team Rousey’s Shayna Baszler, with 23 fights to her name. That said, the gutsy grappler did not have the best of luck in the lead-up to this season of The Ultimate Fighter. Starting with a slam KO loss to former Strikeforce Women’s Champion and current UFC competitor Sarah Kaufman, Modafferi went on 5 fight losing streak that included a disastrous attempt at making a flyweight run. This can be blamed on a combination of poor weight-cutting techniques in her adopted homeland of Japan, injuries, and her attempts to balance training with her full-time job as an English teacher. Prior to that run though, “The Happy Warrior” would garner wins over name fighters like Marloes Coenen, Vanessa Porto, and Tara LaRosa. While the Roxy’s bread and butter is her strong positional grappling game, she is active off her back, and can occasionally land strikes with enough power to rock durable fighters like the aforementioned LaRosa.
I suppose the point I’m trying to make here is that the records of both women do not necessarily represent their abilities. It certainly lends insight into how one can game plan in order to deal with each of them, though. For Jessica Rakoczy to advance, she’s going to want to keep the fight on the feet. She has the power in her punches to finish just about anybody in the competition, and is one of the few fighters on the show who can actually claim to have championship-level striking. The opposite is the case for Roxanne Modafferi, who will ideally want to drag the fight to the ground and use her positional dominance to smother her Team Rousey opponent en route to either a submission or decision victory. This is certainly a more pure example of “striker vs. grappler” than the drubbing that Chris Holdsworth put on Chris Beal last week. It’s also going to be a lot closer, in my mind. Still, I have to go with the grappler Modafferi, whose only knockout loss came at the hands of a powerbomb from Sarah Kaufman. Her striking defense is adequate enough that she should be survive Rakoczy’s boxing assault en route to gaining the takedown and top position. “The Happy Warrior” is not the bundle of energy that Revelina Berto was, and should be able to maintain both position and a level head en route to a decision victory.
Justin’s Pick: Roxanne Modafferi def. Jessica Rakoczy via Unanimous Decision
Tattered On My Sleeve: Non-Fight Speculation and Analysis
So, last week we saw the side of Miesha Tate I was expecting, starting a back and forth with Rousey to try and get her angry while the cast was enjoying the TUF: Brazil 2 finale in a lounge. Again, Ronda didn’t handle it as well as she could have, but it’s nice to see that my theory about neither party being innocent in this whole issue is starting look correct. Both women are wearing their bile on their sleeves, and Ronda’s got her heart on the other, which isn’t helping matters in terms of audience sympathy.
Also not gaining any sympathy for herself is Julianna Pena, who apparently did not read “How to Make Friends and Influence People” before going into the house. Whether it’s an inability to take criticism, deflecting blame when accused of being a rat, or acting above the majority of the house, it appears her only friend at the moment is Chris Holdsworth. How long this lasts is anyone’s guess, but it will be interesting to see if anything changes.
The previews have also shown further drama between members of the coaching staffs of Team Rousey and Team Tate, with one interesting snippet showing Ronda Rousey going nose to nose with a much larger member of Team Tate’s staff in an argument. We also see Edmond Taverdyan yelling at someone. Will the assisting coaches end up scrapping before their fighters do? When you put the Armenian Mafia of MMA into a situation where a great deal of smack is talked, there’s always a chance.
The Ultimate Fighter Season 18 airs Wednesdays at 6pm PT/9pm ET on FOX Sports 1, and at 7pm PT/10pm ET on Sportsnet360. Stay tuned to MMASucka.com for more on the show and other MMA happenings.
