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Stats for Suckas: Alexander Gustafsson vs Jimi Manuwa

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Let’s be honest: Every now and then it’s fun to get down into the nitty-gritty statistics and see if we can’t perform some MMAth. It helps us analyze future fights and make predictions based on previous history. Fans of all sports do it, so why can’t we? It can help us look for potential trends in a fighter as well. So, with thanks to Sherdog and FightMetric.com for the raw data, let’s examine the co-main event of the upcoming UFC Fight Night 38: Alexander Gustafsson vs. Jimi Manuwa.

Stats for Suckas: Alexander Gustafsson vs Jimi Manuwa


Statistics

Alexander Gustafsson

Jimi Manuwa

Age 26 34
Camp AllStars/Alliance MMA Keddles Gym/Nova Forca BJJ
Record 15-2 14-0
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Reach 81.0″ 79.5″
Win Percentage 9 (T)KO (60%)
3 Submissions (20%)
3 Decisions (20%)
13 (T)KOs (93%)
1 Submission (7%)
Loss Percentage 1 Submission (50%)
1 Decision (50%)
N/A
Last (T)KO Victory Dec. 30th, 2012, over Vladimir Matyushenko Oct. 26th, 2013, over Ryan Jimmo
Last Submission Victory Feb. 27th, 2011, over James Te Huna Feb. 7th, 2009, over Jamie Hearn
Last Decision Victory Dec. 08th, 2012, over Mauricio Rua N/A
Last (T)KO Loss N/A N/A
Last Submission Loss Apr. 10th, 2010, to Phil Davis N/A
Last Decision Loss Sep. 21st, 2013, to Jon Jones N/A
Submission Victories by Method RNC x3 (100%) Guillotine x1 (100%)
Submission Losses by method Anaconda x1 (100%) N/A
Prior UFC Main Events 1 0
Most Significant Strikes Received in a Fight 134, vs. Jon Jones, on Sep. 21st, 2013 36, vs. Ryan Jimmo, on Oct. 26th, 2013
Decision Victories in the UFC 2 0
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.11 4.82
Striking Accuracy 37% 64%
Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute 3.21 2.96
Striking Defense 49% 35%
Average Takedown Attempts per 15 Min. 1.98 1.82
Takedown Accuracy 39% 43%
Takedown Defense Percentage 87% 78%
Average Submission per 15 Min. 0.9 0.61
Average Submission Completion Rate 40.64% 36.26%
Most Significant Strikes Landed in a Fight 110, vs. Jon Jones, on Sep. 21st, 2013 53, vs. Kyle Kingsbury, on Sep. 29th, 2012
Total Fight Time 2 hrs, 3 min, 2 sec 1 hr, 7 min, 49 sec

First off, this is not a fight that should be headlining an internet-only card. Alexander Gustafsson, after his war with Jon Jones last year, should at the very least be main-carding a UFC on FOX event. However, that didn’t happen, and Gustafsson was given what many consider a “gimme” opponent in Jimi Manuwa. I don’t believe it’s a “gimme,” but it’s close. Manuwa has not faced the level of competition that “The Mauler” has, but with the string of finishes he’s had, and his age, I can see the UFC rushing him along in hopes of building him as an exciting challenger for the Light Heavyweight Champion.

Jimi Manuwa hits hard and is strong as an ox, but outside of heavy low-kicks, I don’t see him having much to deal with the longer Swede. Alexander Gustafsson is a boxer in a world of punchers, and will use that to keep his Nigerian-born, UK-raised foe confounded. “The Mauler” is also a better grappler, too. I expect Gustafsson to continue building on the success he had against Jones, and batter a game “Poster Boy” for the better part of 4 rounds before getting a TKO victory.

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Justin Pierrot is MMASucka.com's resident musicologist and TUF aficionado. When not looking after his family or writing his weekly pieces, he's making music as Stormland or building Gundam models.

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