There aren’t many occurrences, where the UFC puts together a stacked card without any big names. While this card may lack a big drawing name, this card is full of exciting fights that will surely get hardcore fans excited. This Saturday will be a showcase for the welterweight division, which is arguably the best division in the UFC. There are so many top level fighters at 170 pounds, who are capable of fighting for the title. Robbie Lawler will get his opportunity, being on a three fight win streak will take on Johny Hendricks. That fight could either be an instant classic or end in thirty seconds. That’s how dangerous both fighters are. There are many fighters, who possess that power to end a fight in thirty seconds such as Carlos Condit, Tyron Woodley, and Hector Lombard among others. Allen Strk and Suraj Sukumar are here to break down the entire main card through the usual five questions for UFC 171.
This truly is a special card full of unpredictable match-ups. Unlike past pay-per-views, there aren’t any true locks on the main card.
1. Are you concerned about Nikita Krylov’s physical state? He’s moving to a new weight class and taking this fight on short notice.
Strk: What benefits Krylov in this situation is that his last fight was only 26 seconds long. He knocked out Walt Harris and essentially took no damage. It also helps that he weighed in at 217 pounds. Those are two factors that are in his favor. It’s pretty remarkable to see him go from fighting on Fight Pass onto the main card of a pay-per-view. Still there are many red flags for me, when it comes to his physical state.
It was only last August, when he looked absolutely dreadful against Soa Palelei. He was gassed out by the second round and threw some of the sloppiest punches I’ve ever seen in UFC history. Will he be too drained out at 205 pounds, if the fight goes into the second round? Ovince St. Preux is a freak athlete, who fights at a high pace for a light heavyweight. Krylov could surprise everyone again, with a first round finish. I’m still concerned about his physical shape from weight cutting to his overall cardio. His fight against Palelei was so notably embarrassing that it’s still hard to erase it from my memory.
Sukumar; Krylov is an interesting case. He has actually proven himself quite well as a heavyweight but has decided to move down anyway. This has everything to do with getting noticed a lot quicker in the UFC. Furthermore, in his last fight against Walt Harris, Krylov weighed in at just 218 pounds as a heavyweight, which puts him at a weight cut of just about 13 pounds. I don’t believe the weight cut will be as bad as people think, and at just 21 years old, he should have the ability to do it with ease. The only question surrounding this drop in weight is the speed of other fighters. He is not a slow fighter by any means, but fighting in the light heavyweight division is a whole new ball game in comparison to the heavyweights.
Replacing Thiago Silva in a new weight class and on short notice, will give Krylov the opportunity to jump the UFC ranks in a huge way. He is fighting a very capable opponent in Ovince St. Preux, who has only lost to Gegard Mousasi since 2010. This will be a solid test for Krylov at 205 pounds and it could actually be too much of a bump in talent. However, if he were to come away with the win on Saturday, Krylov would almost guarantee himself a spot on the main card in his next bout, especially with another finish.
2. Jake Shields has controlled powerful wrestlers with one punch knockout power before in Dan Henderson and Tyron Woodley? Could you see Hector Lombard being his next victim?
Strk: There isn’t a fight on this card that has two fighters with completely different styles. While they both like to pressure their opponents against the cage, both fighters have different agendas. Shields likes to control and wear you down, while Lombard likes to makes sure his opponent is staring at the ceiling. Many people including myself tend to write off Shields in the past few years. I wrote an article about why he shouldn’t be forgotten in this wide-open welterweight division. His run in the UFC has been somewhat lackluster, after having tremendous success in Strikeforce. While Shields is more than capable of controlling any welterweight, Lombard will be his toughest test yet. Unlike Woodley and Henderson, he doesn’t gas out in the latter rounds.
He may fatigue a bit, but you saw him pushing the pace in the last round against Tim Boetsch and Yushin Okami. Even when it seems like your controlling him, he springs back up and starts throwing wild haymakers. Both fighters are relentless, which will make for a compelling fight regardless for how long it goes. If Shields can avoid being clipped by Lombard’s barrage of punches early on, he should have some success controlling him against the fence or possibly on the ground. If someone as large as Okami couldn’t keep him down for an extended period of time, I doubt Shields can. He better be ready for 15 minutes of non-stop action to continue his winning streak. I don’t like his chances of lasting that long
Sukumar: Jake Shields is a very special fighter. What helps Shields in these fights is his ridiculous chin. In 37 career fights, he has only ever been knocked out twice. In addition, Shields has the ability to control his opponent on the ground and can take damage as well as anyone. He was very impressive in his fight against Demian Maia, who is considered one of the best BJJ fighters on the planet. Both Woodley and Henderson are better wrestlers than Lombard, and potentially better strikers, which is a big factor going into this fight.
Jake Ellenberger was the last striker to get the best of Shields, and prior to that it was Georges St. Pierre’s elite-level wrestling that got the best of him. Outside of those two losses, Shields has proven himself in the octagon time and time again. He may not be the most exciting fighter, but he knows how to grind out wins as good as anyone in the UFC. The real question is, does Hector Lombard possess the level of striking to finish,or the wrestling to out-grind, Jake Shields? I do not believe he does.
3. What impresses you the most about Myles Jury? He’s been constantly overlooked over the past year or so.
Strk: Jury’s timing has really impressed me the most out of all his attributes. Of course, his ground game and how well he transitions to a better position has prompted to four straight wins in the UFC. I’d still label his success towards his timing. In his fight against Michael Johnson, he had so much success with his takedowns. It wasn’t from constant pressure, his instincts took over and took advantage of Johnson leaving himself open while on the attack. Whether it was catching a leg kick to create a trip or double legging him, Jury’s timing was excellent. Then in his highlight reel knockout of Ramsey Nijem, he timed the over hand right perfectly as Nijem was coming in throwing a wild combination. His fight with Diego Sanchez is being overlooked because the card is so stacked of great match-ups. I’m really compelled by this matchup based on both fighters’ styles. Jury was criticized for being too passive in his last victory over Mike Ricci. There is no secret that Sanchez will be constantly pushing forward for fifteen minutes. While his timing is important and could very well be the trick to winning on Saturday, Jury needs to be more aggressive otherwise he’ll get overwhelmed.
Sukumar: I am actually quite excited to see Jury in action. With any undefeated fighter, you always want to see who it will take to stop him, or if he can take that record all the way to a title shot. I don’t know if he has been overlooked in the past, but more so groomed to do well in the UFC. He has gradually fought tougher opponents, but may have deserved a stronger candidate after the Michael Johnson victory. He went on to win two more fights and is not in the toughest battle of his MMA career. One great factor of Jury’s game is his all-around ability. He has shown strong striking and a good ground game throughout his career, but will need to work harder as a UFC fighter to come away with similar victories.
Speaking of which, the most impressive factor of Jury’s game to date is his finishing ability. He was able to finish his first 10 fight in the first round, including his UFC debut. He then went on to defeat a very strong opponent in Johnson via unanimous decision. I believe he has not been truly tested in his UFC career and will finally get an elite level veteran to prove himself against. If he can finish Diego Sanchez, let alone beat him, it will be interesting to see what the UFC has in store for Jury moving forward.
4. Is it inevitable that Tyron Woodley will have to consistently look for takedowns to defeat Carlos Condit?
Strk: This isn’t a knock on Woodley because he’s trying to stand out in a crowded division. You have to respect that he wants to fight against the best welterweights in the world. It’s just hard to believe him, when he’s talking about fighting to always finish and how Condit is a point striker. In his fights against Tarec Saffiedine and Paul Daley, Woodley was mostly looking to clinch and follow it up with a double leg or a trip. In the third round against Daley, he was hanging on to Daley for dear life so he wouldn’t have to stand with him. It was the right strategy against someone as dangerous as Daley and he should be applauded for fighting a smart fight. I’m just puzzled by his recent interviews about how he fights to always finish just because he has two knockouts in the UFC. When he fights top-level strikers, he’s looking to hold them down to steal points and win those rounds.
I’m expecting him to do the same here. Woodley is more than capable of ending the fight on the feet; nobody can deny his punching power. His issue will be trying to actually connect with his punches. Condit is so quick and knows how to utilize angles like no other welterweight. He’s so versatile with his striking, which is going to make Woodley reevaluate any ideas of trying to stand and trade with him for long periods of time. Everyone knows that Condit’s one glaring weakness is his takedown defense. It’ll be up to Woodley to use his wrestling to control Condit and his endurance. He doesn’t want to make the same mistake that Martin Kampmann made by gassing himself out by attempting five takedowns in the first round. Woodley has had cardio issues in the past, so it’ll be up to him to pace himself properly and try to smother Condit as much as possible.
Sukumar: Yes, I believe so. If he goes into this fight thinking he can out-strike Carlos Condit he may have already lost. When we consider Condit’s unbelievable streak of not being knocked out, it would be some feat for Woodley to finish him via strikes. However, the way I see it, if Johny Hendricks can’t knock him out, it’s probably a good assumption that very few people can, and I don’t believe Woodley will have the striking power to finish Condit.
Another thing against Woodley is Condit’s great ability to get up after a takedown. Very few fighters have similar ground games and he seems unbelievably comfortable on his back. Let us also remember that Condit’s BJJ will be oceans apart from Woodley’s, which should keep him safe even if he gets taken down. With that said, it seems like Woodley’s only chance of victory is to take Condit down and hold him there, but after the loss to Hendricks, you would hope Condit put extra work into his takedown defense, as it seems to be his only weakness as a fighter.
5. In his past two fights, Johny Hendricks pace has slowed down in latter rounds. Do you believe that his cardio is the only hinderance as a fighter?
Strk: In terms of weaknesses, that would be his only hindrance as a fighter. If you want to dissect certain areas, of course there is room for improvement. I’d like to see his striking be more fluid rather than relying on wild flurries. His straight left has proven to be devastating, but I’d like to see his striking more refined. It would also be nice to see him use more leg kicks. We saw in his fight against St. Pierre that he knows how to use elbows and knees effectively. Those elbows against the fence in the first round busted St. Pierre up. While it didn’t deliver the finishing blow like Travis Browne did to Gabriel Gonzaga and Josh Barnett, it forced St. Pierre to think twice about shooting in for a double near the fence. If he can use leg kicks to be more unpredictable, that would make him even more dangerous.Those are only minor critiques for Hendricks because he’s been that special. Besides the third round against Carlos Condit, you’ve never seen him in trouble. That’s how dominant he’s been over the past few years. If he can be more versatile with his striking and learn how to pace himself better, then he could go on a historic run as champion. I’m aware that he’s a massive welterweight, who cuts about 35 pounds to make 170. He still needs to find a way to be more active in the latter rounds, if that situation occurs again. Robbie Lawler doesn’t go away and will constantly look to stalk Hendricks before attacking him, as long as the fight is standing.
Sukumar: When you throw that many power punches in a fight, especially in five rounds, there is definitely going to be some downfall. Not to mention, having to wrestle as much as he did against Condit and GSP, there is another added factor in losing some energy as the fight progresses. The pace slowing down has everything to do with chasing the highlight reel knockouts early in the fight. If he were to pace himself throughout the bout and not look for such damaging finishes early, I do not believe we will see him look a step behind in the later rounds.
Is it a hindrance? I don’t think so. If he can go three rounds with Carlos Condit and lose a controversial split decision to GSP, it would be safe to assume that Hendricks maintains solid endurance and cardio. Knowing how good his striking and wrestling is, it is important for him to improve his tank to stay aggressive for the whole fight. I do not think he has bad cardio, but I think he has such an energy-sucking style that he needs to find ways of increasing his gas tank. Not to mention, his fight against GSP was his first five round fight, so improving his cardio for the next bout was probably the most important part of his training camp.
Jeremy Brand is an experienced MMA writer and columnist. He is the founder of MMASucka.com, and has represented the company with media credentials at many mixed martial arts fights. Jeremy is also a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, training in BC, Canada.
