MMASucka Staff Predictions: UFC 181
As always the staff at MMASucka.com will make their predictions for the entire main card. As you can see from our overall running scores, some of us are much better than others. But without further ado, check out the MMASucka Staff Predictions.
Below are the scores after our UFC 180 picks.
Jeremy – 62-37
Justin – 61-40
Allen – 56-32
Suraj – 54-24
Thinesh – 23-15
Mike – 24-19
Nick – 24-20
MMASucka Staff Predictions: UFC 181
Johny Hendricks vs. Robbie Lawler
Jeremy: This fight will likely play out much like the first — very close. Both Hendricks and Lawler are one punch away from finishing anybody and this fight will be no different. I am a huge fan of both guys and don’t really know who to pick. Hendricks should be able to do enough to keep the gold around his waist, but it will be tough. Johny Hendricks via Unanimous Decision.
Nick: I’m ridiculously excited for this rematch. A rematch of a ‘Fight of the Year’ contender, between two of the best welterweights in the world, how can you get much better? I wasn’t able to catch their first fight so I can’t wait to see these guys back in the Octagon together. Hendricks had difficulties taking Lawler down in the first fight with a torn bicep, but ended up getting one in anyways closer to the end. I think Hendricks’ wrestling could come into play here, but I still see the fight mostly on the feet. I suspect it to be close, but I think we see a new champion. Robbie Lawler via Unanimous Decision.
Mike: I am so pumped for this rematch. Just as much as I was for their first contest. The first fight was extremely close, but was won in the final minutes of the final round when Hendricks secured an important takedown. I see this fight playing out somewhat the same, meaning it will be close. But I don’t think Lawler makes the same mistake twice. He has underrated wrestling ability, both offensively and defensively, and has been winning and improving while Johny has been on the sidelines. I expect this to be a back and forth contest, with Lawler starting to pull away in the 3rd and 4th rounds, much like the first fight, only this time, I think Robbie Lawler give the judges the night off. Robbie Lawler via Round 4 TKO.
Justin: A tough call, given what happened in the first fight. I recall scoring it for Lawler at the time, but having a healthier Johny Hendricks this time around just makes this future all the murkier to see. So, I’m going to flip a coin and… Okay, the coin says Johny Hendricks and his forgotten wrestling. Johny Hendricks via Unanimous Decision.
Allen: There aren’t many fighters that are more well rounded than Robbie Lawler. His striking couldn’t be more technical, along with having devastating knockout power. His takedown defense has improved drastically over the past four years. He’s become the complete package, while you can argue that Hendricks remains a bit flawed. If you look back to his incredible fight against Carlos Condit, his pace tends to decline considerably in each round. That was one of the main reasons why he “lost” to Georges St. Pierre and got picked apart by Lawler in the fourth round. Will Hendricks lean towards his wrestling more compared to trying to stand-and-trade with Lawler? That would be a wise decision. He tends to not land much damage from getting top position on the ground either. That may not mean much from the judges point of view, due to their possible incompetence. This is a tough pick to make, since the champion is usually favored in a close decision. Lawler will land more significant strikes and do just enough damage to finish off his incredible comeback story. Robbie Lawler via unanimous Decision
Suraj: Likely one of my personal favorites, Johny Hendricks took the welterweight division by storm and was able to breeze through the competition as he made his way to the top. Now champion, Hendricks will look to defend his title against one of the most exciting fighters in the game, Robbie Lawler. The thing about Lawler is we’ve seen him rocked, but we can’t say the same about Hendricks. However, what we can say about Lawler is he has fought some of the best competition the world has to offer, and has only been defeated by some of the best. On top of that, we’ve only seen him actually lose by TKO/KO once, to none other than Nick Diaz. With that said, it’s hard to see this fight going any different unless more wrestling is used or more power shots are thrown earlier in the fight. If the fight goes to a fourth and fifth round, you can expect both fighters to be exhausted again, as their pace and level of compete is simply through the roof. While a part of me wants to see one of the greatest MMA stories end with a championship, I don’t think Saturday will be the night for Lawler. Johny Hendricks via Unanimous Decision.
Anthony Pettis vs. Gilbert Melendez
Jeremy: The champ is the favorite in this bout, but how can you count out Melendez, who is the former Strikeforce Lightweight Champion and is as durable as they come in the division. The Cesar Gracie product has had some wars inside the cage, but keeps coming forward. Stylistically this fight is going to be amazing, with Pettis utilizing his flashy striking, while Melendez will use his crisp and accurate boxing. Much like the main event, I think it is a tough fight to pick, but again the champ will likely retain his strap. Anthony Pettis via Unanimous Decision.
Nick: This second championship fight is similar to the main event — very close. Melendez performs the best in wars, like when he fought Diego Sanchez last year, but Anthony Pettis is too smart to brawl with the No. 1 contender. Instead, the Lightweight Champion will stand back, land hard shots, throw some flashy strikes, do what he always does. Melendez is still a highly skilled fighter, and I’m far from counting him out, but I think we ultimately hear “and still!” from Bruce Buffer at the end of the night. Anthony Pettis via Unanimous Decision.
Mike: Well, this might be a first; I’m predicting we have two new champions at the end of the night. Anthony Pettis is an incredible fighter with some of the best striking, kicks in particular, that we have ever seen. With that being said, Gilbert Melendez is no slouch. He has slick boxing technique and knows how to drag guys who don’t want to be in brawls into brawls. Pettis is flashy and will look to kick a lot, but I believe it will be hard to get anything off with a guy like Gilbert Melendez constantly pressuring you. He has the cardio to hold that pace for five rounds as well. Also; I’m talking as if this is a kickboxing contest — it isn’t. Melendez has the edge in wrestling and I expect him to mix the wrestling with his strikes to win this fight. Pettis has a high level submission game, but Melendez trains with an excellent team and has showed to have some stellar submission defense in the past. Albeit, it is very hard to confidently predict such a close fight, but I truly believe we see Gilbert Melendez rise to the occasion and become the UFC lightweight champion. Gilbert Melendez via Split Decision.
Justin: Pettis is coming back from injuries, while Melendez has simply been waiting for his turn. In addition, “El Nino” has also not had to worry about his gym coming under fire for questionable practices like “Showtime” has. So, with a mental edge, I’m going to go ahead and say that Gilbert Melendez will grind out a victory and become the new UFC Lightweight Champion. Gilbert Melendez via Unanimous Decision.
Allen: The toughest fight to pick on the card. Melendez is so well-rounded and fights at such an outstanding pace. His fight IQ is top notch, while his championship experience is so valuable in these circumstances. Can he close the distance effectively though? Pettis movement and ability to use his range is exceptional. Melendez isn’t that great of a wrestler either. The unpredictability and explosiveness that Pettis possesses is a scary combination to have. Pettis has those attributes in becoming one of the most lethal strikers in MMA today. This fight may start off slow, due to both fighters shaking off ring rust. Eventually the fight will pick up and Pettis striking will begin to take over. Melendez doesn’t possess significant power nor uses many kicks in his arsenal. Look for Pettis to catch him with a counter head kick to add another knockout to his respective highlight reel. It’s hard to keep going forward and managing to survive from Pettis’ striking. Anthony Pettis via Round 4 TKO
Suraj: Man, the fact that this is the second last fight automatically tells you we’re in for an epic night of fights. I am a HUGE fan of Melendez’s camp and can honestly say they’re all animals in their own way. Melendez has proven to be one of the best lightweights in the world and is very deserving of another shot at UFC gold. Breaking down the division, I don’t think there is a better fight than this at lightweight and it will be nice to see a good challenge for Pettis, who is one of the most explosive, quick, and dynamic fighters in the UFC today. Both fighters have only lost by decision, so a finish here would mean the very first experience for either fighter. Can one of these guys finish the other? I think Pettis has the technical strikes down but his power could be questionable against such a strong-chinned fighter. Similarily, Melendez punches for bunches, but his 11 TKO/KO victories suggest there’s a chance to finish the fight while standing. Pettis has a strong submission game but this would be the ultimate shock of all, as Melendez’s camp is extremely well-versed in BJJ and tapping out is simply not in their vocabulary. I think this will be a long and grueling fight, with the contender doing just enough to break this ‘champion must win the decision’ routine. Gilbert Melendez via Unanimous Decision
Travis Browne vs. Brendan Schaub
Jeremy: Similar to the rest of my team, it seems very difficult to steer away from such an obvious choice. Travis Browne has proven to be an elite fighter whereas Schaub is a borderline top-10 gatekeeper. He has the skill to finish a lot of people by submission or grind out the decision, but this isn’t Matt Mitrione or Lavar Johnson. Though Browne has lost twice in the UFC, it was against much tougher competition than Schaub, and I think he comes away with another impressive victory. Travis Browne via Round 1 TKO.
Nick: Travis Browne is simply on another level than Brendan Schaub. ‘Big Brown’ is known for not having the best chin in the world, and Browne is a heavy hitter in the division. The only chance I give Schaub is if Browne gasses and Schaub out points him in a very boring fight. That’s not going to happen, though. Travis Browne via Round 1 TKO.
Mike: Though I think Brendan Schaub is highly underrated compared to Browne being highly overrated, this was an easy fight for me to predict. Browne is powerful, especially in the first round, and Schaub does not have the best chin. Schaub winning here would not surprise me at all, but.. Travis Browne via Round 1 TKO.
Justin: While I disagree with Mike on the matter of Brendan Schaub being underrated, I do agree with him in terms of predicted result. Travis Browne via Round 1 TKO.
Allen: The questions about Browne’s new head coach Edmond Tarverdyan have led to some buzz about a potential upset for Schaub. While his cardio and grappling is superb, Schaub tends to leave himself too open. He can be careless in unloading combinations, particularly in his loss to Ben Rothwell. Browne has a history of making desperate fighters pay through being flustered by his reach advantage. Josh Barnett was his biggest victim, who was easily caught by trying to go for a single leg takedown. If Schaub can’t close the distance effectively, he could very well get impatient if Browne begins to utilize his reach. As long as Browne’s cardio is on par, this is his fight to lose. His striking is too dynamic for someone, who is susceptible to not being able to withstand punishment like Schaub. A nice bounce back win for Browne in proving that he’s refined his unpredictable striking. Travis Browne via Round 1 TKO
Suraj: This is an easy one, both on a personal and professional level. Personally, I think Schaub is overrated and talks too much. Professionally, I think Schaub is overrated and talks too much. Travis Browne is Tim Sylvia 2.0 and brings a lot more technique and speed to the heavyweight division. In his last fight, Browne went the distance with the now interim heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum. What that tells me is, at the very least, Browne deserves to be fighting the very best fighters in the world. Sorry, but Schaub is not that. He is 2-3 in his last five fights and has shown very little signs of improving. Since making the jump to the UFC his striking has been borderline invisible and I doubt Browne lets this fight hit the ground. If it stays standing, it will be a very short night for Schaub, not that he isn’t used to it already. Travis Browne via Round 1 TKO.
Todd Duffee vs. Anthony Hamilton
Jeremy: There are no more ‘Knockout of the Night’ honors, which is too bad, because this fight has a knockout written all over it. Duffee has been a professional fighter since 2007, but only has 10 fights. He has gone through some rough patches, at one point, he wasn’t sure whether he would be able to continue fighting due to health reasons. Hamilton has amassed quite the record, 13-3, since 2010, but has not fought the same type of competition as Duffee. Will the two-year layoff affect Duffee? Only time will tell. Todd Duffee via Round 1 Knockout.
Nick: Todd Duffee is coming off a two-year layoff, this is a heavyweight fight, and he doesn’t have the best chin. These are hints that Hamilton will pickup a stoppage win. Anthony Hamilton via Round 2 TKO.
Mike: Ahh, Todd Duffee. Another guy whom I think may get a bit more credit than he deserves. I don’t expect a finish here like most people, nor do I expect either guy to dominate the fight. I think Duffee gets it done in his return fight, but I don’t see him finishing Anthony Hamilton. Todd Duffee via Unanimous Decision.
Justin: So, will Todd Duffee be able to make a triumphant comeback to the UFC against Anthony Hamilton? We’ll have to see, but heavyweights can get hit hard by ring rust. Anthony Hamilton via Unanimous Decision.
Allen: This matchup is such a cluster. It’s hard to rate Hamilton as a UFC level fighter. His victory over Ruan Potts was so forgettable and ugly. Duffee’s layoff is obviously concerning, but his experience can’t be ignored. We’ve also seen Hamilton have issues with conditioning, as the fight goes on. It could be an ugly slugfest that will give snarky posters loads of material. In the end, Duffee will eventually wear him down in earning a convincing victory. Todd Duffee via Round 2 TKO
Suraj: This could be the toughest matchup to call on the entire for a few reasons. Not only are both these guys monstrous in size, they come from very experienced backgrounds and are training at two of the top gyms in the world. While Duffee trains out of American Kickboxing Academy, Anthony Hamilton is a product of the Jackson-Wink MMA team. For Duffee, this will be his first time back in the octagon since 2012, which is an extremely long lay off in such a demanding sport. Can he come back in top shape? Well, would that even matter if Hamilton shows no rust? Duffee is a talented fighter and has very good potential at just 28 years old. I think training at AKA helped him figure stuff out. Todd Duffee via Round 1 TKO.
Tony Ferguson vs. Abel Trujillo
Jeremy: Abel Trujillo looked good in his fight against Jamie Varner but it could be a really tough night for him. Tony Ferguson has an unorthodox style with immense heart. It’s very difficult to finish him and he has a way of making you work for your shots. Trujillo proved to have some power in his hands, but Ferguson has yet to be put to sleep by punches or kicks. Both fighters will keep a really good pace which should keep us on the edge of our seat. Nevertheless, Ferguson’s BJJ skills are on a completely different level, and I think that’s what will ultimately decide this fight. Tony Ferguson via Round 2 Submission.
Nick: I’m looking forward to this fight, for sure. Abel Trujillo has had an inactive 2014, with only one fight in February. He’s been setup for about four other fights but his opponents have pulled out, and when he was setup to face Ross Pearson he got injured himself. He’s a very entertaining fighter and completely throws bombs, while Tony Ferguson is more of a technical fighter, with a sneaky ground game and good striking. He’s a tough guy to beat, but I think Trujillo can get the job done. Abel Trujillo via Round 2 TKO.
Mike: Wasn’t much back and forth from me when it came to picking this one. I expect Tony Ferguson to pick Trujillo apart on the feet and I think he is too crafty for him if it gets to the ground. I think Trujillo will have his moments, but Ferguson won’t get reckless like Jamie Varner did. Tony Ferguson via Unanimous Decision.
Justin: This should be a fun war, since both Ferguson and Trujillo are known to bring it. So, who will get the better? I suspect that Ferguson will continue his rise. Tony Ferguson via Unanimous Decision.
Allen: One of the better openers in recent memory for a pay-per-view. Two exciting fighters that know how to finish fights on a consistent basis. Ferguson’s striking continues to improve to go along with his wicked ground game. Only Carols Condit has managed to fluster his opponents through short elbows at the bottom. It was one of the main reasons why he narrowly defeated Danny Castillo. Trujillo’s injuries are concerning, but his freakish power won’t go away. We’ve seen him leave his opponents unconsciousness. It would be wise for Ferguson to take this fight to the ground. He’s not much of a wrestler though. For him to stand-and-trade for Trujillo through long periods of time could be costly. I’m expecting that to happen, which will lead to Trujillo’s explosiveness being unleashed. His boxing combinations are predictable, yet land on a high ratio. Abel Trujillo via Round 2 TKO
Suraj: Ever since his Ultimate Fighter appearance, I can’t help but feel there’s something about Tony Ferguson’s style that makes you want more. He is an unpredictable and exciting fighter, and while that might make his chances of winning lower, it will always be an entertaining fight. On the flip side, Abel Trujillo is a tank of a man and has incredible knockout power in his fists. If this fight stays standing, it’s pretty much Ferguson’s heart against Trujillo’s power, and I don’t really know which quality is superior. For me, experience and all-around skill are the defining factors, and I can’t help but give the edge to Ferguson. He has nine TKO/KO victories and, other than his loss to Michael Johnson, Ferguson is undefeated since 2009. If that’s not enough, he has also never been knocked out and is the far superior ground specialist, at least prior to this fight. Unless Trujillo can truly battle Ferguson’s versatility, I don’t see this being a favorable matchup. Tony Ferguson via Round 3 TKO.
Urijah Faber vs. Francisco Rivera
Jeremy: Urijah Faber
Nick: Urijah Faber
Mike: Urijah Faber
Justin: Urijah Faber
Allen: Urijah Faber
Suraj: Urijah Faber
Eddie Gordon vs. Josh Samman
Jeremy: Eddie Gordon
Nick: Eddie Gordon
Mike: Eddie Gordon
Justin: Eddie Gordon
Allen: Eddie Gordon
Suraj: Eddie Gordon
Corey Anderson vs. Justin Jones
Jeremy: Corey Anderson
Nick: Corey Anderson
Mike: Corey Anderson
Justin: Corey Anderson
Allen: Corey Anderson
Suraj: Corey Anderson
Ashlee Evans-Smith vs. Raquel Pennington
Jeremy: Raquel Pennington
Nick: Raquel Pennington
Mike: Ashlee Evans-Smith
Justin: Ashlee Evans-Smith
Allen: Ashlee Evans-Smith
Suraj: Ashlee Evans-Smith
Matt Hobar vs. Sergio Pettis
Jeremy: Sergio Pettis
Nick: Sergio Pettis
Mike: Matt Hobar
Justin: Sergio Pettis
Allen: Sergio Pettis
Suraj: Sergio Pettis
Clay Collard vs. Alex White
Jeremy: Clay Collard
Nick: Alex White
Mike: Alex White
Justin: Alex White
Allen: Alex White
Suraj: Alex White
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