Parlay Friday: UFC Argentina

UFC Argentina Parlay
(Photo by Alexandre Schneider /Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC)

So close, yet so far away to a payout…

With Tenshin vs. Mayweather supposedly back on, I’m pretty sure there’s a prop bet somewhere on how many times this fight will get canceled between now and the end of the year.

I’d rather bet on fights that will actually happen.

Welcome to another edition of Parlay Friday, where I teach you the risks of betting on MMA fights at my own expense. We’ll recap the UFC 25th Anniversary show, make some bets on the upcoming bouts in Argentina, and hopefully make some money.

UFC: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez Recap    

I was in attendance for the UFC 25th anniversary show, and as the beer flowed, my spirits were high. Ashley Yoder had squeaked by with a split decision, Donald Cerrone had put on the exact performance I thought he would, and the “Korean Zombie” was inches from victory in a fight of the year candidate…

And in the blink of an eye, I watched my betting slip become worthless.

In what will be remembered as one of the craziest knockouts of all time, Yair Rodriguez threw a no-look elbow that crumpled the South Korean and gave him a highlight reel finish. Although I lost my money, I have to be honest—I couldn’t care less. The fight, the finish, and all the craziness that came along with it was the reason I fell in love with this sport in the first place.

Bad birthday bet aside, my picks were nearly spot on and I’m bound to hit one sooner rather than later.

Rules Reminder and Disclaimer

Hey, it’s Déjà vu! Here is the same old disclaimer that spells out you shouldn’t take my word as anything close to gospel, and should probably tell me in the comments what I’m doing wrong:

THIS ARTICLE IS FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, MOSTLY THE ENTERTAINMENT OF YOU LAUGHING AT MY LOST MONEY AS THIS SERIES CONTINUES. I AM NOT QUALIFIED TO GIVE ANY BETTING ADVICE WHATSOEVER, SO PLACE BETS AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Since that’s out of the way, here are the rules:

  • All bets must be parlays of 3 or more fights
  • All bets must be at least $5 and not exceed $20
  • All payouts must be at least 5x the original investment (i.e. $5 bet means a payout of $25, etc.)

Got it? Good. Then on to the UFC Argentina picks

UFC Argentina Parlay Bets

The Picks

Cezar Ferreira (-200)

“Mutante” is back to his winning ways after putting together a two-fight win streak against Nate Marquardt and Karl Roberson. Going 5-1 in his last six bouts, Ferreira always seems close to breaking into the rankings but often falters when he faces a step up in competition. Another win here and it’ll be hard to deny him another shot at someone in the top fifteen.

While Ian Heinisch isn’t exactly a top-tier opponent, he’s no slouch either. With a record of 11-1, his lone loss comes in the form of a submission to Markus Perez at LFA 22 for the organization’s vacant middleweight title. Since then he has won three straight all by way of knockout, and steps in for an injured Tom Breese to fight on a week’s notice.

Ferreira’s ground game is as sharp as ever, and with Heinisch’s lone loss being a submission it could be a long night for the UFC newcomer if he doesn’t get a quick knockout. Add that to the fact he’s taking this fight on very short notice and I think it ends up being another notch in Cezar’s belt before the Brazilian gets another shot at breaking out of his role as a gatekeeper.

Michel Prazeres (-190)

You would think that someone on a seven-fight win streak would be more top of mind, but missing weight three out of his last four bouts and a boring style has left Michel Prazeres in No man’s land. With a lone split decision win since moving up to 170lbs., “Tractor” will be looking to make a statement Saturday to boost his standing with the UFC and fans alike, hoping he can make the case for a ranked opponent in his next contest.

Standing in his way will be Bartosz “The Butcher” Fabinski. Coming off a unanimous decision victory against Emil Meek in July, the Polish welterweight is undefeated in the UFC and holds an impressive 14-2 record overall. He will have a six-inch height and an eight-inch reach advantage against Prazeres.

If you’re wondering if I bet on Prazeres simply to make this fight more interesting for me, you’re not entirely wrong. This is bound to be a snoozefest—both men are wrestling machines, Fabinski lays and prays like it’s his job, and Prazeres has been known to lose steam outside of the first round. All that aside, I believe “Tractor” has a large advantage in the striking department and the wrestling skills to keep “The Butcher” from producing any real offense. So long as Prazeres can make it halfway through the fight before gassing, he should have this in the bag.

Darren Elkins (+165)  

After having his improbable six-fight win streak snapped by Alexander Volkanovski, “The Damage” looks to keep his spot in the rankings by fending off former featherweight title contender Ricardo “The Bully” Lamas. Although his style doesn’t generally include the phrase “striking defense”, Elkins is insanely durable and proven himself to never be out of a fight with shocking comeback wins against Mirsad Bektic and Michael Johnson.

“The Bully” is also looking to keep a foothold in the rankings. Suffering a first-round knockout at the hands of Josh Emmet and a split decision defeat to the aforementioned Bektic in his last two, a loss to Elkins would drop his stock considerably and may confirm that the veteran has lost a step. While he’ll give up a 2-inch height advantage to “The Damage”, he’ll have an identical reach.

It wouldn’t be a lotto ticket type bet without increased risk, and there may be no better example than betting on Darren Elkins. Despite the ridiculous amount of punishment he takes Elkins can dole out the offense, and even though Ricardo Lamas is still a force to be reckoned with, he appears to be in the twilight of his illustrious career. Couple that with his durability being questionable as of late and I think you end up with a win for the man known as “The Damage”.

What’s on the line

After a stinging loss last time I’m going to go lower and bet $10 for a $50.67 payout.

Check back to see how I did as well as my TUF 28 Finale picks

Money Spent: $40

Payout: $0

Total Net Gain/Loss: -$40

Think you have better picks than mine? Wanna help a guy out? Leave a comment below and let me know!

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