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UFC Vegas 33: Uriah Hall vs Sean Strickland betting odds and pick

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Uriah Hall vs Sean Strickland is set to headline UFC Vegas 33. Strickland, a rising contender, will take on his toughest middleweight challenge to date when he faces the powerful striking of Hall.

Here we discuss the betting odds, analysis and pick for Uriah Hall vs Sean Strickland.

  • When: Saturday July 31st, 2021 at 9 p.m. EST (ESPN)
  • Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Line: Uriah Hall (+180) and Sean Strickland (-220); Over 3.5 rounds (-115) and Under 3.5 (-115); Fight does distance (+130) and does not go distance (-175); Hall by KO/TKO/DQ (+350) and Strickland by KO/TKO/DQ (+150); Hall by decision (+550) and Strickland by decision (+225); odds from DraftKings sportsbook.

Uriah Hall

Uriah “Prime Time” Hall earned a TKO in 17 seconds without throwing a single strike at UFC 261 in April, so it’s not surprising to see him making the quick turnaround to get back in the Octagon just three months later.

Hall has a three-inch reach advantage over Strickland and will be 37 years old when he steps into the Octagon on Saturday evening. He averages 3.34 strikes (significant) landed per minute (SLpM) with 51 percent striking accuracy, with 3.54 strikes absorbed per minute (SApM) with 53 percent striking defense, 0.67 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 38 percent takedown accuracy and 69 percent takedown defense, according to UFC stats.

Uriah has won four in a row and of his last five, including three wins by TKO over Chris Weidman (TKO Rd 1, 2021), Anderson Silva (TKO Rd 4, 2020), Bevon Lewis (TKO Rd 3, 2018) and a decision win over Antonio Carlos Junior (SD, 2019), and a TKO loss to Paulo Costa (Rd 2, 2018)

Sean Strickland

Sean “Tarzan” Strickland has not lost since returning from a motorcycle accident and moving up from welterweight but he will be facing his toughest middleweight opponent to date and first five-round main event in the UFC on Saturday night.

Strickland has a one-inch height advantage and is six years younger than Hall. He averages 5.14 SLpM with 39 percent striking accuracy and 3.64 SApM with 67 percent striking defense, 1.14 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 60 percent takedown accuracy and 82 percent takedown defense.

Sean is also riding a four-fight winning streak, winning four of his last five, including wins at middleweight over Krzysztof Jotko (UD, 2021), Brendan Allen (TKO Rd 2, 2020), Jack Marshman (UD, 2020), and a win over Nordine Taleb (TKO Rd 2, 2018) and loss to Elizeu Zaleski (TKO Rd 1, 2018) at welterweight.

Uriah Hall vs. Sean Strickland – The Narratives

Many believe that Strickland’s youth, superior takedown ability, higher output, striking differential and confidence will lead to a win over an aging Hall who has shown lower output, tentativeness at times and a tendency to shell up against the pressure of power strikers such as Paulo Costa and Derek Brunson.

Uriah Hall vs Sean Strickland Prediction

The odds and narrative suggest that Strickland should win fairly handily against Hall on Saturday evening, and while this could certainly come to fruition, we see this contest as much closer than the odds indicate and have questions about Strickland’s fight strategy and the quality of middleweight opponents that Sean has faced.

While Hall has recently beaten two former, while admittedly older, UFC middleweight champions in Weidman and Silva, Strickland went to decision against Marshman and Jotko, the latter of whom was knocked out by Hall in 2017. And while Marshman’s poor takedown defense might call for a wrestling-heavy game plan against him, Sean chose to stand and bang against Marshman and recent interviews indicate that Strickland plans to “chop away” at Hall, a strategy that could be more favorable to Hall than one that might include wrestling.

Hall has indeed been pummeled into submission by power punches from Costa, Brunson and Mousasi but we perceive Strickland to have a more calculated boxing approach that might allow Hall to hang around long enough to get his feel for the fight and set up his own knockout.

Sean stands fairly upright with his hands near his chest, often pressing forward with one-twos and an occasional left hook or overhand right. But his plan to stand and bang, upright boxing stance and striking defense might make him susceptible to spinning kicks and counter strikes from Uriah Hall.

We see Strickland applying the pressure and landing his jabs for the first two rounds of the fight as Hall does his best to dodge Sean’s punches and pressure. If Uriah is able to weather the initial storm, then we expect Hall to begin landing kicks and counters that might shift the fight in his favor and set up a knockout.

While “Tarzan” could very well win this fight by knockout, we actually see him respecting Hall’s power and more likely winning a unanimous decision by out-boxing Hall for five rounds. But Uriah Hall might be feeling it on his birthday on Saturday night and he will be the most powerful striker that Sean has faced in the middleweight division.

Since we perceive this line as too wide and this match-up much closer than anticipated for us to consider making a play on Strickland, we believe the betting value is on Uriah Hall, making it a dog or pass situation. And if Hall wins, he most likely wins by KO/TKO.

Pick: Hall by KO/TKO/DQ +350

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