Aside from the main event, the most intriguing fight this weekend is Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Carlston Harris. This incredibly hard-to-pick fight could come down to inches and attrition in a classic super-prospect vs. super-prospect battle. Let’s get right into a breakdown of each competitor’s strengths and weakness, and project who could emerge the winner in this Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Carlston Harris preview.
Shavkat Rakhmonov (14-0)
Rakhmonov is at the tip of the spear of incredible fighters booming from Kazakhstan. One of the most talked-about prospects in all of MMA, his fight with Harris is a wild prospect vs. prospect fight that could easily be high up on a PPV in a few years’ time.
Undefeated with his prime still ahead of him, Rakhmonov has many long years to terrorize the welterweight division. Shavkat is a lifelong martial artist who built a base around combat sambo and rounded out his game with boxing. Park Jun Yong and Faridun Odilov were just two of Rakhmonov’s fourteen victims, all of which he’s finished before reaching the end of time limits.
In a tough UFC debut against Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira at UFC 254, Rakhmonov showed off his adaptability as he found himself unable to get space from Oliveira against the cage. As Oliveira dropped for a double leg takedown, Rakhmonov secured an arm-in guillotine choke and pulled guard. What was impressive about the eventual finish was his ability to close off space by compressing around the neck with his chest, getting the quick tap by application of technique and not simply by muscle.
His sophomore appearance against the bulldozing Michel Prazeres saw him chip away at the hulking Brazilian en route to a second-round rear naked choke submission. Although he was able to trip Prazeres to the canvas in round one, he struggled passing the guard in two occasions to leverage a effective ground and pound attack. In the second round, Rakhmonov adjusted by cutting his opponent down on the feet to greater success on the ground.
What stands out on Rakhmonov’s strategy is how little movement he wastes, from his body movement and footwork to his high striking accuracy. Although it’s never been fully tested over three full rounds, apparently his cardio is one of his strongest suits, aided in how efficient he is. His second round against Prazeres was an absolute tempest of pain, effortlessly landing massive knees and boxing combinations. His eventual finish wasn’t even fully positionally locked in, but Prazeres was broken enough to tap out quickly from all of the damage.
Carlston Harris (17-4)
In January of last year, Dana White attended a UAE Warriors show in hopes of scouting talent such as Khabib Nurmagomedov training partner Saygid Izagakhmaev. When Izagakhmaev ended up tapping to a D’Arce choke from his opponent, White ended up handing out a UFC contract to Saygid’s opponent- Guyana’s Carlston Harris.
Carlston comes from a boxing background, and only started training MMA at age 24, hence the late entrance to the UFC at 33. Before the UFC, Harris’ enjoyed a successful MMA career with wins over Wellington Turman, Joilton Lutterbach, and Michel Pereira. Claiming the UAE Warriors title at the January 2021 show ended a chapter of his fighting tenure that has prompted several to draw comparisons to welterweight version of Yoel Romero.
Harris, like Rakhmonov, has had a pretty easy walk through two UFC appearances thus far. His frame is exceptionally long, and channels the full power of his core down to the end of his punches, throwing 1-2 combinations with the intention of ending fights, not just scoring points. His right hand can get a little loopy as he often throws it from a fairly low position, however. He threw that 1-2 combo over and over in his last fight against Impa Kasanganay, which quickly wore Kasanganay down to score a first-round TKO finish.
In his UFC debut fight against Christian Aguilera, his quick reflexes, wrestling, and instinctive BJJ skills were on display. After sniping Aguilera at range, Aguilera turned to the takedown to attempt to change the pace of the fight. Harris deftly sprawled and instantly locked in an anaconda choke, leading to another first-round finish.
Harris is dangerous everywhere, explosive, and often fires from odd angles. Rakhmonov’s boxing against Harris’ could turn into a high-paced gunfight, so let’s look at how the two match up.
The Breakdown
Practically identical in their reach metrics, a striking battle could end up being highly entertaining. Harris would be wise to reign it in a little bit early, holding back some of the explosive combinations and working the leg kicks. Rakhmonov’s boxing stance means that he’s heavy on the front leg, and Harris throws pretty sharp leg kicks. Harris has to be aware that Rakhmonov will be able to outlast him in a drawn-out slugfest, so he has to be cognizant of how he stewards his efforts.
In the clinch, Harris typically goes straight for the body lock takedown to drag opponents to the ground, but Rakhmonov’s sambo background should nullify Harris’ efforts, especially later in the fight. Early in the contest, do not be surprised if Harris is able to out-muscle Rakhmonov in a couple positions, but Shavkat should have the clear cardio advantage over the long haul. After a feeling-out process where Harris picks and chooses his shots, he could attempt to win the second two rounds by working the clinch against Rakhmonov and mixing in strikes.
Rakhmonov’s attack should center on pressure striking to put Harris on his back foot and catch him in combinations. If he wants to reduce Carlston Harris’ options, he needs to either slip or check the legs that Harris’ is undoubtedly try to land. Since Harris will not have the usual reach advantage, that means that his distance striking will put in range to be countered by Rakhmonov. The left hook is going to be an important weapon for him, as he slips in as Harris comes in swinging.
Both men are sure to have their moments as well as weaknesses exposed, and this fight will tell us a lot about the long-term value of each fighters as a future contender. Both will probably be ranked someday soon, but Rakhmonov’s endurance and tighter control of technique will likely pull him ahead in this fight, earning him a late TKO as Harris weathers, or a potentially Rakhmonov’s first employment of judges.
Prediction: Shavkat Rakhmonov def. Carlston Harris via Split Decision.
How to Watch: Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Carlston Harris is the fourth fight on the UFC Vegas 46 main card, which airs on ESPN+ at 7pm EST / 4pm PST on February 5th.
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