Betting Tips

UFC 284 Betting Tips and Picks

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The blockbuster UFC 284 card goes down this weekend live from Perth, Australia. Headlining the card will be a clash for P4P greatness when the #1 P4P fighter in the world and featherweight champion, Alexander Volkanovski, moves up in weight to take on #2 P4P fighter in the world, Islam Makhachev in a quest to become a two-weight world champion and take Makhachev’s lightweight belt away from him.

UFC 284 - ESPN+

In the co-main event, Yair Rodriguez and Josh Emmett meet for the chance to become the interim featherweight champion. The two-top featherweights are fighting in both of their first title opportunities.

Elsewhere, we have the homecoming of Jack Della Maddalena. After a huge 2022 where he recorded three straight knockout victories, all of which took place in the first round, Maddalena will hope to take this form into 2023. He takes on the always game, Randy Brown.

We take a look at some of the best bets from the entire UFC 284 card. All odds are correct at the time of writing from Draftking sports.

UFC 284 Betting Tips

Bilder vs. Young – Under 2.5 rounds (+100)

Both Blake Bilder and Shane Young are both all action scrappers. Bilder will be making his UFC debut and be looking to make a statement. He’s finished his last four straight bouts and is undefeated professionally at 7-0-0-1. Although Young has only been finished once during his career, he often leaves himself open. He’s recorded five finish victories himself and will be looking to get straight back to work after having almost a year out. +100 money isn’t bad for these two to not see the final bell.

Rodriguez vs. Emmett – Over 4.5 rounds (-175)

At -175 to go over 4.5 rounds is pretty logical for the co-main event. Both men have been out for a prolonged period of time. We haven’t seen Rodriguez since his victory over Brian Ortega back in July. Prior to that, he competed in the previous November. Before this, he’d had over two years out of the sport and even got cut from the UFC. Emmett last competed in June of last year but prior to that, he hadn’t competed since the December of the year before.

Despite both having power, flashy strikes (on Rodriguez’s side) and both having impressive gas tanks, neither man is a prolific finisher. Emmett hasn’t finished a fight since 2019 when he knocked out Mirsad Bektic. Since then, he’s gone to decision on his last three occasions, last time over 25 minutes. Rodriguez last finished an opponent (intentionally) in 2018 (if you could call the Chan Sung Jung finish as intentional. Yes, he finished Ortega last time out but this was as a result of an injury.

Over 4.5 rounds makes a lot of sense in this one because each man knows that their opponent has the ability to knock them out so won’t rush into things but look to point score for the majority of the fight. Emmett failed to pull the trigger last time out so despite having the heavier hands, doesn’t always use them.

Islam Makhachev via submission in round 3- (+1100)

This one is far more of an ‘out-there’ pick. We know what Islam Makhachev wants to do, despite what he says. He wants to get his hands on Volkanovski, take him down and look to work a submission. He’s finished his last five fights, four of which have come via submission. We know he has that Dagestani wrestling style and working control, followed by submission is what he wants to do.

Although Alexander Volkanovski is a phenom, this fight is going to be tough. Although size shouldn’t be a huge issue, he’s not great at defending takedowns. He’s got a percentage of 73%, meaning he gets taken down on average one in every four attempts. This isn’t great for Volkanovski against Makhachev. The lightweight champion is relentless. Against Arman Tsaryukan, Makhachev attempted nine takedowns, proving just how relentless he is in the pursuit of getting the fight to the ground.

Even if Volkanovski is able to keep Makhachev off for a while, he’s likely to be taken down at least once. Round three is a fair bet for him to get caught with something. He’s never had to deal with wrestling-based adversity in the UFC thus far and this fight will present him with that. By round three, Volkanovski could get reckless and make a split-second mistake, something that we know that Islam Makhachev will take advantage of.

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Frazer Krohn has been with MMASucka for nearly 5 years. He is the host of the MMASucka podcast, which is released every Monday. He's the author of a series of six books about MMA, which were published in 2023.

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