Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia Breakdown

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It’s finally here. On Saturday night, if you’re not a Star Wars fan marathoning the original trilogy, you might be watching combat sports. While UFC 301 is in progress in Brazil, one of boxing‘s biggest events so far this year will be taking place. We’ve already outlined the fact that fans have a choice to make this weekend.

Live coverage of this card begins at 8 pm ET/ 5 pm PT on pay-per-view over DAZN, Amazon Prime Video and for a cost of $89.99 (USD). All told, absent of any late postponements or cancellations between now and Saturday night, the main card will feature four title fights under the Premier Boxing Champions signature.

As is often the case, Las Vegas is the center of the combat sports universe this weekend. T-Mobile Arena is the site for the most-anticipated skirmish of 2024.

Supremacy at 168 lbs. At Stake Saturday Night in Vegas

Undisputed Super-Middleweight Champion of the World Saul Alvarez (60-2-2, 39 KOs), otherwise known as Canelo, will put his titles at risk when he meets challenger and WBC Silver Super-Middleweight Champion Jaime Munguia (43-0, 34 KOs.)

Given that this is a championship fight, this one is an advertised maximum of 12 rounds at three minutes per round to close the show.

Canelo vs. Munguia Fighter Comparison and Betting Odds

Heading into Saturday night’s headliner, challenger Jaime Munguia stands as the taller man at six feet even, compared to Canelo Alvarez’ 5-foot-8 frame. Munguia owns a 1 1/2-inch reach advantage (72 inches even to 70 1/2 inches) over Canelo.

Currently, the oddsmakers have Canelo Alvarez installed as a -500 favorite on the money line, with Jaime Munguia countering as a +400 dog. A prop bet indicates that Canelo has +188 odds to win by either knockout, TKO or technical decision, with the favored prop being Canelo retaining by a judges’ decision (-125.)

If you plan on betting on this or any other fight happening this weekend in combat sports, please wager responsibly.

Canelo and Oscar de la Hoya Exchange Barbs at Final Press Conference

Champion Canelo Alvarez has posted a record of 4-1 in his last five fights. At present, he’s on a three-fight winning streak. Back in September of last year, he scored a unanimous decision after 12 rounds against Jermell Charlo (35-2, 19 KOs) to retain the championship.

A particularly juicy storyline stems from the fact that this is the first time that Canelo has fought on a card promoted by Oscar de la Hoya after he left Golden Boy in late 2020. Wednesday’s final press conference nearly got out of hand after the latter made reference to Alvarez’ past issues with steroid tests, and the former returned fire.

“This idiot, this [guy] here to my left. try not to forget that I was already ‘Canelo’ when I came to the United States and that he only profited from my name,” Alvarez told the crowd. “He never lost a single cent, but instead made money. Have you already paid Golovkin what you want to steal from him?”

In light of Alvarez’ comments, De la Hoya mentioned after the press junket that he’ll file a defamation lawsuit. The war of words is over, so can Alvarez turn his remarks into aggression?

Munguia Looking to Score the Upset of the Year

In the other corner, Jaime Munguia has yet to lose in his professional career. On Jan. 27, he made a successful defense of the WBC Silver Super-Middleweight Championship against John Ryder (32-7, 18 KOs) with a ninth-round TKO.

Recently, Munguia was interviewed for the DAZN YouTube channel, where he succinctly outlined his gameplan: Seek and destroy.

“I am undefeated. I’ve faced 43 men and knocked 34 of them out,” Munguia said, through onscreen subtitles. “I am undefeated. I am coming for my titles. As I always say, we want to fight the best in the division and Canelo is in this division. So we are ready, ready to fight the best. We are both going to be under equal circumstances. There will be no advantages. We will be under the same circumstances and 100 percent ready.”

Analysis, Film Study, and Prediction

Both of these men have orthodox fighting stances, thus this one is a toss-up.

Watch for Canelo’s Uppercuts

Unless you’ve been comatose for a long time, you know that Canelo Alvarez has one-punch power. Caleb Plant found this out the hard way in November of 2021.

During round 11, after not getting knocked down at any point as a professional, Plant absorbed a left hook, followed by an uppercut. Although Plant managed to rise, Canelo landed crisp shots against a now-wobbly Plant, knocking him down and out against the ring ropes.

If Canelo can land the uppercut, it’ll be game, set, and match on Saturday night.

Munguia Can Counter With a Right-Hand

In the other corner, Munguia’s right-handed punch is a key weapon in his arsenal. Just watch the tape of his last fight vs. John Ryder from January. During the second round of the fight, Jaime Munguia landed a nice combination, punctuated by a straight right-hand to put him down, followed by another knockdown in round four.

Advancing to the ninth round, Munguia knocked Ryder down with an overhand right before dropping him again with another combination, culminating in Ryder’s cornermen resigning from the fight. Munguia’s key: Land the right with regularity. If he scores with the right hand, the upset will be complete.

Final Thoughts

This one looks to be a fight for the ages. If you haven’t preordered the pay-per-view already, do it.

Prediction: Jaime Munguia by Ninth-Round KO. 

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Drew Zuhosky has been writing about combat sports since May of 2018, coming to MMASucka after stints at Overtime Heroics and Armchair All-Americans. A graduate of Youngstown State University in Youngstown, OH, Drew is a charter member of the Youngstown Press Club. Prior to beginning his professional career, Drew was a sportswriter for YSU's student-run newspaper, The Jambar, where he supplied Press Box Perspective columns every week.

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