Analysis

UFC 305 Main Event Breakdown

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This coming Saturday is the last weekend without at least one team-competitive college football game until the end of January. While your favorite school’s marching band is currently sweating it out under the hot August sun rehearsing the fight song or halftime routines, the action inside the MMA cage is even hotter.

After holding the first episode of this season of Contender Series this past Tuesday night, UFC CEO Dana White and his staff have headed to the Southern Hemisphere for a return visit to Perth, Australia. RAC Arena is the host site for UFC 305 this Saturday night.

Live coverage begins at 6:30 pm ET/ 3:30 pm PT on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass with the early prelims. Late prelims immediately follow at 8 pm ET/ 5 pm PT on ESPN and ESPN+. The night ends with the five-fight main card at 10 pm ET/ 7 pm PT on ESPN+ pay-per-view.

Middleweight Gold at Stake in UFC 305 Main Event Saturday Night

All told, barring any 11th-hour cancellations, the final version of UFC 305 features a full 12-fight card. Highlighting the night’s activities is the battle for the UFC Middleweight Championship in the UFC 305 main event.

Incumbent champion Dricus Du Plessis (21-2 MMA, 7-0 UFC) faces off against challenger and No. 2 contender Israel Adesanya (24-3 MMA, 13-3 UFC). Like all UFC championship fights, this main event is an advertised five rounds at five minutes per round to close the show. Pending its outcome, the UFC 305 main event will have ramifications on what the promotion’s future itinerary will look like.

During the Contender Series post-fight press conference on Tuesday night, Dana White mentioned that should Dricus Du Plessis successfully defend his title this weekend, the UFC would hold a future card in DDP’s home country of South Africa.

“You have one of these situations where [for] both guys, everything is on the line, especially because they dislike each other so much,” White told the press. “And if [Du Plessis] can beat Izzy and bring that belt to South Africa, obviously we’ll do an event there.”

UFC 305 Main Event Fighter Comparison and Betting Odds

Heading into the UFC 305 main event on Saturday night, challenger Israel Adesanya stands as the taller man at 6-foot-4, compared to the 6-foot-1 frame of champion Dricus Du Plessis. Adesanya owns a four-inch reach advantage (80 inches to 76 inches) over Du Plessis, as well as a 1 1/2-inch leg reach (44 1/2 inches to 43 inches even) over Du Plessis.

Currently, the oddsmakers have Israel Adesanya installed as a -120 favorite on the money line, while Dricus Du Plessis counters as a +100 underdog. If you plan on betting on this or any other fight happening this weekend in MMA or combat sports, please wager responsibly.

DDP Ready to Make First Defense of Title

Dricus Du Plessis has posted a 5-0 record in his last five fights. Currently, he’s on a nine-fight winning streak. Last time out, he scored a split decision victory after five rounds over Sean Strickland (28-6 MMA, 16-6 UFC) to unseat the latter as 185-lb. champion during UFC 297 back in January.

On Thursday, Du Plessis met with the media to discuss exploiting the weaknesses in Adesanya’s fighting acumen.

“At this level, you don’t see the holes, these clear holes, in people’s games,” Du Plessis began. “You just don’t see it, because that’s why we’re at the top of the game. You do see places where they get uncomfortable. They don’t necessarily make the mistakes, but there’s places to force them to make mistakes. That’s what I feel we did in the [Robert] Whittaker fight and that’s what we’re going to do in this fight.”

Will he be able to force Adesanya off of his gameplan? Tune into the UFC 305 main event and find out.

Adesanya Returns After Almost a Year

In the other corner, Israel Adesanya has posted a 3-2 mark in his last five fights. He enters this fight looking to reclaim the belt that he lost at the end of last summer to the aforementioned Sean Strickland in the UFC 293 main event.

A month after that fight, he revealed that he’d be taking an indefinite hiatus from competition. Earlier this year, “The Last Stylebender” took to YouTube to reveal that he’d be ending his sabbatical from the sport.

“How excited am I to get back in the Octagon?”, Adesanya asked himself in the video. “I’m excited. I’m excited, it’s been almost a year, like 11 months, by the time I get back in the Octagon. People are always like ‘I hope you get the belt back. I hope you get the belt back.’ I have belts. I don’t need any more belts. I’m coming for heads. That’s what I want to do.”

His confidence has increased in recent times. Adesanya’s hungry to get the belt back, even though he says the title is of secondary concern. Can he get back in the win column? Only time will tell.

Analysis, Film Study, and Prediction

This one looks like a toss-up. While both men are kickboxers by trade, Du Plessis is a second-degree black belt, compared to Adesanya’s purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

DDP Can Pour on the Punches

Statistically speaking, Dricus Du Plessis has won nine fights by knockout. During October of 2020, his current winning streak was extended on Fight Island vs. Markus Perez.

Round one of the fight saw the contestants trade strikes, with Du Plessis compromising his opponent’s leg due to kicks. While Perez backed DDP up to the cage fence, the latter returned fire with a punch to wobble Perez and drop him. A flurry of punches from back mount ended the contest.

If Dricus Du Plessis lands the first big blow of the UFC 305 main event, it could spell the end of the night.

Watch Adesanya’s Varied Strikes

Given that Israel Adesanya is a former challenger for the Glory Kickboxing Middleweight Championship, it stands to reason that he’ll try to mix up his shots set up the victory. One need look no further than his fifth career MMA fight vs. Qing Gele. After Qing tried to dump Adesanya in the first round with a single-leg takedown, he peppered Qing with a leg kick.

Throughout the fight, it was clear that this contest would be a prime example of one-way traffic, Upon connecting on a shot to Qing’s ribcage, rather than land ground and pound, he instead opted to let him back up to his feet. This display continued in the second round, when Adesanya landed another strike to the body before ending the contest with elbow shots on the ground.

Israel Adesanya has to establish control of the UFC 305 main event early and not let Dricus Du Plessis get comfortable. It starts with a varied attack.

Final Thoughts

The UFC 305 main event could be the fight of the year in MMA by the time the calendar turns over. Don’t miss it.

Prediction: Dricus Du Plessis by First-Round Knockout. 

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Drew Zuhosky has been writing about combat sports since May of 2018, coming to MMASucka after stints at Overtime Heroics and Armchair All-Americans. A graduate of Youngstown State University in Youngstown, OH, Drew is a charter member of the Youngstown Press Club. Prior to beginning his professional career, Drew was a sportswriter for YSU's student-run newspaper, The Jambar, where he supplied Press Box Perspective columns every week.