Khamzat Chimaev vs Robert Whittaker, co-main event across five rounds, UFC 308 and high stakes.
Originally booked for June, Chimaev had to pull out of the bout due to illness, a theme that has become all too apparent throughout his UFC career. Whether it is his fault or not, the undefeated Borz has had six cancelled fights and just seven fights that have gone ahead. Unfortunately, three of those seven came in a three month period, meaning that he has been extremely inactive as of late. Of course, illness can’t be helped, however, having pulled out in June, has allowed Whittaker to gain far more confidence.
Not one to turn down anyone, the former middleweight champion stayed on the card and took on Ikram Aliskerov on short notice, only to blow him away in just 1:49 of their bout. This marked his first finish victory since 2017 and it will naturally give him a tonne of confidence heading into the Chimaev fight… not good for Borz.
How Might it Play Out?
On paper, this one is two well-rounded mixed-marital artists meeting in the octagon for a #1 contenders bout. Whittaker is far more experienced, with more UFC fights than Chimaev has professional outings. With that being said, Chimaev doesn’t know what it’s like to taste defeat. He’s beaten every opponent he’s faced thus far, largely through a relentless wrestling approach (with the exception of Gerlad Meerschart, whom he blitzed in just 17 seconds).
Chimaev averages 3.99 takedowns per 15 minutes, however, struggles to achieve the takedown later in the fight. Against Kamaru Usman, he landed just one takedown in the final round, despite attempting four. It’s worth noting that Usman took the fight on extremely short notice. He does seem to suffer fatigue towards the end of fights, which is evident again against Usman, but was also evident against Gilbert Burns earlier in his career.
If Chimaev were to wrestle against Whittaker, he’d likely have success. He’s a big middleweight, but more than that, he times his takedowns extremely well. More often than not, he’ll duck under a big strike from an opponent, get the body lock and drag them to the matt with him.
With that being said, Whittaker isn’t an easy man to take down. He’s got an 82% takedown defence and hasn’t touched the mat more than once in a fight since 2018. The Australian isn’t usually one to over-swing on his shots, however, when he faced Israel Adesanaya in their first bout, he was guilty of doing so and paid for it. If he is to have any success keeping his back off the canvas, he needs to keep his shots tight, limit the high kicks that he throws and constantly be on the move.
WHITTAKER vs CHIMAEV! #UFC308 is LIVE SATURDAY on @ESPNPlus PPV at 2pmET!#InAbuDhabi @VisitAbuDhabi @InAbuDhabi pic.twitter.com/OWDN5zIMmK
— danawhite (@danawhite) October 24, 2024
That brings us to the jab of Whittaker. The Reaper has one of the best jabs in the game and constantly makes opponents pay for coming into his range with sloppy attacks or lazy footwork. If he can keep knocking Chimaev off his rhythm, it’ll make the takedown threat far easier to combat.
If it does hit the mat, it’s anyone’s fight. Chimaev controlled Usman for 4:35 of the first round in their clash, however, did very little damage. He preferred to maintain the dominant position, rather than go in search of a ground-and-pound finish or a submission. Whittaker is more than competent should the fight hit the floor, however, we haven’t much of his defensive ground game. He was almost caught in a d’arce by now champion, Dricus du Plessis, however, did enough to get away.
Some Picks to Look out for
Chimaev via Round 2 TKO +750
Chimaev via Round 2 submission +1000
Whittaker via decision +650
