November 16th marks the UFC’s return to New York City’s Madison Square Garden for UFC 309. Typically, Dana White and company choose to stack this annual card full of blockbuster names and this year is no different. In the past we’ve been treated to classics like Conor McGregor vs Eddie Alvarez at UFC 205, Michael Bisping vs George St Pierre, Nate Diaz vs Jorge Masvidal and Israel Adesanya vs Alex Pereira 2, amongst a whole host of others.
This time last year, we were all ready to be entertained by Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic, however, the heavyweight champion had to withdraw from the bout with an injury. Miocic decided to sit out and wait for Jones to return and, as it happens Bones is now ready and the two will meet in the main event in this year’s outing to Madison Square Garden.
In the co-main event, the all action Michael Chandler returns after sitting out and waiting for the Conor McGregor fight, however, it won’t be the Irishman stood across from him, it will be his former foe, Charles Oliveira. Do Bronx beat Chandler by TKO in 2021 to capture the vacant lightweight title.
The main event, however, is the fight that will be focussed on today… but it won’t be us that’s doing the hard work, it’s AI. We asked AI who they thought would win the bout, so let’s look into it.
Jones vs Miocic
First things first, let’s look into each man. Last time out, Jones returned after a three-year layoff to move up to heavyweight and take on Ciryl Gane. The Frenchman was an extremely favourable stylistic match-up for the American, who took his opponent down with ease and submitted him in just 2:04. Those couple of minutes are the only minutes of action that Jones has had in over four and a half years, so there’s no denying that he’s going to be rusty in the octagon.
Jones is extremely well-rounded and is practically undefeated. His only loss came at the hands of Matt Hamill. Jones’s 12-6 elbows saw him lose via DQ. With 27 wins to his name, he’s ranked #1 P4P and has a wide range of methods to win the fight, whether it be with strikes or on the ground, Jones is solid everywhere.
If fans are worried about Jones’ ring rust, they must be terrified about Miocic’s. The most successful heavyweight in the history of the company hasn’t fought since March 2021 when he was brutally knocked out by Francis Ngannou. Since July 2018, he’s had just four fights going 2-2. Like Jones, Miocic is well-rounded. He has a solid wrestling base, heavy hands and a high fight IQ, however, at 42 years of age, questions will be asked as to whether father time has caught up with him.
So how does it go?
If you ask AI, it says:
“Jon Jones might be slightly favoured because of his ability to control range, his grappling edge, and his adaptability. But with Miocic’s knockout power and experience, he could definitely pull off an upset, especially if he can pressure Jones early and land significant strikes.
Ultimately, it’s a close fight that could go either way, but the stylistic edge may lean slightly towards Jones.”
On paper, that doesn’t sound like a terrible prediction. Miocic has to use his power to hurt Jones, who has never truly been hit at heavyweight. We know this won’t be easy, however, if the former champion can do it, it’ll pay dividends later in the fight. He must pressure Jones, cut off the cage and look to unload. Body shots for Miocic could work effectively, as they did against Daniel Cormier as we don’t know what Jones’ gas tank is like at heavyweight, however, it’ll be hard to pin him down due to his footwork and his long reach being difficult to get on the inside of.
OH. MY. GOODNESS. 😱
Stipe Miocic TKOs Daniel Cormier after pounding the body!
Incredible! #ANDNEW #UFC241 pic.twitter.com/fpsz5DUkVF
— UFC on TNT Sports (@ufcontnt) August 18, 2019
Overall, however, Jones has the advantage in this one. He can pop-shot Miocic with his prolonged reach, get on the inside when he wants to and attack with elbows and knees in the clinch. Granted, he isn’t much younger than Miocic at 37, however, arguably has far fewer miles on the clock.
Jones via finish is a reasonable pick. As AI suggests he can adapt to the fight as it potentially goes deeper and importantly, can use his range to dictate where the fight takes place.
