UFC 309 Best Bets and Picks

The annual UFC show from New York City’s famous Madison Square Garden is again upon us with UFC 309! The card is headlined by a heavyweight title fight one year in the making between one of the greatest fighters to grace the octagon, Jon Jones and the most successful heavyweight in UFC history, Stipe Miocic.

The co-main event sees a five-round rematch at lightweight between the former champion, Charles Oliveira and the all action, Michael Chandler. Elsewhere, top 10 flyweights Karine Silva and Viviane Araujo clash in a fight between potential stars. Another potential star in Bo Nickal returns for the toughest test of his career as he clashes with veteran, Paul Craig. Throughout the card, there’s a whole host of recognisable names, some of whom will feature in our best bets!

UFC 309 Best Bets

Jon Jones via finish

Jon Jones clashes with Stipe Miocic which is largely seen as a retirement fight for both men. With Tom Aspinall waiting in the wings for the winner, regardless of the result, we will likely see two pairs of gloves laid down in the octagon. Jones has the edge in this one, despite coming off an injury. Miocic will certainly be struggling with ring rust, having been out of action since March 2021 when he was brutally knocked out by Francis Ngannou. He’s without a win since 2020 and at 42 years old, has been given the opportunity based on previous accolades. To say there are better options for Jones’ first title defence (such as the interim title holder) is an understatement.

Jones has more weapons to his game and despite his only heavyweight fight being a very favourable match-up, he’s got some of the best well-rounded skills in the division. Expect Jones to mix in his wrestling to nullify Miocic’s power and likely get it done by ground and pound, similar to how he dealt with Alexander Gustaffson in their rematch.

Oliveira via finish

One of the most entertaining fights of 2021 saw Charles Oliveria and Michael Chandler clash for the vacant lightweight title. In a back-and-forth battle, Oliveira caught Chandler in the second and was able to finish things, capturing the belt. Since then, the Brazilian has gone 3-2, only losing to the champion and the next title challenger. Chandler has gone 1-2, beating Tony Ferguson via brutal front kick knockout.

Oliveira has been more active, having competed, albeit in a loss at UFC 300, whereas Chandler hasn’t been in action since November 2022 in a losing effort to Dustin Poirier. He has been sat out, dancing to the tune of Conor McGregor and waiting for that fight which hasn’t materialised.

The edge in this one goes to Oliveria. He knows he can finish Chandler, who has been badly hurt in almost every fight of his UFC career thusfar. Yes, he’s in phenomenal shape, however, having been out of action for so long, we have to ask the question whether he’s ‘battle ready’? Oliveira seemed to let the fight against Arman Tsarukyan get away from him at UFC 300, however, the most dangerous finisher in UFC history will have two more rounds to get his work done at UFC 309. Expect a finish by any means necessary for Do Bronx, possibly late on.

Other bets to look out for:

Craig via decision

Some outlets have Paul Craig as high as a +650 underdog. Yes, he’s the underdog, but what does he try to do in each and every fight? Ground his opponent and look to work his submission game. What does his opponent, Bo Nickal always look to do? Ground his opponent to work his wrestling game.

Nickal must be extremely careful when he mixes it up on the ground with Craig because as the Scot says, if he gets a hold of an opponent, it’s either ‘tap, snap or nap’!

Elliott via decision

The Welsh Gangster is back in action for his third UFC bout, however, will be unlikely to get the finish that he so desperately desires. After six straight decisions, we’ll likely see him go 15 minutes once again due to the toughness of his opponent, Basil Hafez. The Habibi has never been finished and went the full 15 minutes with Jack Della Maddalena on short notice. Elliott via decision, back it.