UFC on ESPN+ 13 is likely not the most exciting card of the year on paper. Despite this, there are still plenty of opportunities to make money this weekend with some intelligent betting. Here are some UFC on ESPN+ 13 betting tips in order to ensure that you do.
UFC on ESPN+ 13 Betting Tips
1. Marvin Vettori (-150) vs. Cezar Ferreira (+130)
Last week’s top UFC 239 pick was underdog Jorge Masvidal over Ben Askren. We all know how that played out. Similarly, this week’s top pick is another underdog in Cezar Ferreira (13-7).
It is incredibly surprising that Ferreira is the underdog in this bout. Ferreira has won 5 of his last 7 bouts including wins over top contenders Jack Hermansson and Anthony Smith. This is in stark contrast to Marvin Vettori (12-4-1) who has only won one in his last 4 bouts.
Ferreira has beaten some of the top fighters on the roster, whilst Vettori has only won twice in the UFC. Both of Vettori’s wins have come against opponents with incredibly poor wrestling, which have given the Italian easy paths to victory. Vettori’s best UFC performance is arguably his split decision loss to interim middleweight champion Israel Adesanya. Although Vettori tested Adesanya on the feet in the fight, it was obvious that Adesanya was nowhere near his best and Vettori’s performance was simply not that impressive.
Vettori has a large significant strike landed p/min advantage in this bout, with 3.4 landed per minute as opposed to Ferreira’s 1.8. Vettori’s best chance is to keep the fight off the mat. Despite this, Ferreira has a four-inch reach advantage and combining this with his slick submission skills the Brazilian should have little issue dispatching of Vettori.
Pick – Cezar Ferreira
2. Ryan Hall (-115) vs. Darren Elkins (-105)
Ryan Hall (7-1) may just be the most frustrating opponent for any fighter on this planet. Flopping to his back at any opportunity in an attempt to goad his opponents into his truly world-class submissions is a hallmark of any Hall performance. Darren Elkins (24-7) will be the latest man to have the the opportunity to attempt knock the jiu jitsu ace out.
No matter what you think of Ryan Hall his skills on the mat are undeniable. After losing his MMA debut in 2006 Hall only returned to the sport in 2012 after sharpening his skills. In his last UFC appearance Hall handed MMA legend BJ Penn his first submission loss with an expertly executed heel hook, the second of his career.
Darren Elkins is one tough customer. His win over Mirsad Bektic at UFC 209 is often cited as one of the greatest comebacks of all time. Elkins may not have one-punch knockout power, but he packs enough force to reasonably win the fight in this way. Hall will continuously fall to the mat and if Elkins follows, Hall will likely win the fight. Elkins will do his best but will most likely fail to land any strikes of significance against Hall, allowing Hall to eek his way to a very tight decision victory at the very least.
Pick – Ryan Hall
3. Brianna Van Buren (-125) vs. Livinha Souza (+105)
Brianna Van Buren (8-2) recently won the Invicta FC strawweight title after winning three fights in one night at Invicta FC: Pheonix Rising 1. Two of these victories came against ex-UFC fighters in Juliana Lima and Kailin Curran. However, despite being ex-UFC fighters, both Lima and Curran do not match up to the high-level Invicta opponents that Livinha Souza (13-1) has faced.
Souza is another good underdog pick this weekend. The Brazillian is the better grappler and possesses more power in her hands. Van Buren is stepping in for Cynthia Calvillo on short notice, and it is likely that taking on Souza without adequate preparation will prove too much for her.
Pick – Livinha Souza
4. Ricky Simon (-345) vs. Urijah Faber (+285)
MMA legend Urijah Faber (34-10) makes a surprise return to the octagon this weekend against young prospect Ricky Simon (15-1).
Ricky Simon is coming off a unanimous decision victory over veteran Rani Yahya at UFC 234. Simon will likely have every physical advantage over Faber, perhaps even the better gas tank. This means that Simon will probably be able to push the pace this weekend whilst handling Faber’s wrestling.
However, as such a large underdog, Faber may be worth a bet for punters suffering from nostalgia. Faber is incredibly octagon savvy and has huge amounts of experience against truly world-class opponents. Simon did not look overly impressive against Yahya, another fighter who many would see as far past their prime and physically washed out. There is a genuine chance ‘The California Kid’ can outsmart Simon in his hometown Sacramento and therefore is certainly a viable underdog pick.
Pick – Urijah Faber
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