Guest post by David Klonsky

If McGregor is to pull off the upset, it will largely be due to his advantages in size, youth, fight-film availability, unorthodox boxing stance, and ring rust.

It is the greatest fight in the history of combat sports, or a laughable spectacle, depending on who you ask. Regardless, millions will watch on August 26, 2017 when UFC champion Conor McGregor takes on boxing’s undefeated, 15-time champion Floyd Mayweather Jr. in a boxing rules fight.

McGregor’s Advantages are Many

Most fight experts believe The Notorious One’s chances are somewhere between small (see famed boxing trainer Freddie Roach) to none (see boxing analyst Max Kelleman). Betting odds agree: McGregor is the heavy underdog. These opinions and odds make perfect sense. McGregor has never fought a boxing rules fight, and his first attempt will be against perhaps the greatest boxer of all time.

And make no mistake, MMA-rules striking does not translate well to the boxing ring. Boxing takes place at a difference range, with larger gloves, and no concerns about kicks or takedowns (or elbows or knees). As a result, boxing entails far different defensive considerations than MMA, and boxers utilize angles and offensive setups that McGregor has only begun to fathom. In the words of Firas Zahabi, Mayweather will be “light years” ahead of McGregor in boxing range. McGregor is not only like to lose, but to look silly and helpless.

And yet, we are talking about Conor McGregor. We are discussing a man who has achieved every unlikely feat he said he would achieve, including becoming a dominant UFC champion in two weight classes. Many suggest that Conor’s mentality is his wild-card, that he has a unique ability to win through sheer visualization, and that we therefore cannot count him out against Mayweather. This is a strong argument, yet a difficult one to debate. Who is to say that Floyd Mayweather – an undefeated champion in five weight divisions – is not McGregor’s equal when it comes to mentality?

More to the point, I believe that McGregor’s mentality can become a distraction when it comes to assessing McGregor’s advantages, because McGregor has some important and tangible advantages that are receiving less attention. If an upset is in the cards, it will happen largely because McGregor has advantages in the following five domains: 1. size, 2. youth, 3. fight-tape availability, 4. style, and 5. ring rust.

1. Size Matters

McGregor is bigger than Mayweather. The fight will take place at 154 pounds, which is perfect for McGregor, who dominated at the 145 and 155 pound weight classes in the UFC. In contrast, the majority of Mayweather’s fights have been at weights between 130 and 147. Sure, Mayweather has fought a few times at 154, but Conor has fought as high as 170. And if you think the size difference is not important, just look at the difference between Conor at 145/155, where he was a dominant two-division champion, compared to Conor at 170, where he is 1-1 with one submission loss and one close decision win.

2. Youth Matters

McGregor is younger than Mayweather. In fact, it is fair to say that McGregor is in his fighting prime (age 29), whereas Mayweather is old (age 40). Consider how some of the greatest boxing champions in Mayweather’s weight classes fared before vs. after age 40. Sugar Ray Robinson won 92% of his fights before age 40, compared to 70% after. Here are the comparable figures for Roberto Duran (90% vs. 72%), Roy Jones Jr. (91% vs. 76%), and Shane Moseley (85% vs. 50%). Sugar Ray Leonard, who has a 36-3-1 lifetime record, had only one fight after age 40: a TKO loss, the only stoppage loss of his career.

With the above knowledge in mind, let us return to the fight at hand: storied champion Floyd Mayweather will be fighting for the first time after age 40. As great as he is and was, there can be no doubt his skills are not what they used to be, and that his chances of winning are lower.

3. Fight Film Matters

Game-planning is a major part of combat sports. Both Conor McGregor and Floyd Mayweather are known to carefully analyze opponents and train and game-plan accordingly. As a result, Mayweather is at a tremendous disadvantage for the upcoming fight.

There is literally zero useful tape of McGregor boxing. McGregor has never fought in a boxing match. Mayweather has nothing to study. He can surmise that Conor will try to use his powerful straight left, but that is about all. Only those close to Conor, who are part of his fight camp, know the tactics that Conor is practicing. (Granted, there have been some leaks and speculation that Conor is planning a physical, clinch-heavy, borderline illegal approach to roughing up Floyd when the distance closes).

In contrast, Floyd has 49 fights, which translates to hours of tape for Conor and his coaches to watch, analyze, and plan against. Game-planning and tailored strategies are a huge part of Conor’s camp, this cannot be understated. Conor’s win in his rematch against Nate Diaz is a testament to his ability to assimilate new information (i.e., what happened in the first fight against Diaz), and train and plan accordingly.

In short, Conor has so much tape on Floyd that he knows exactly what to expect come August 26. In contrast, Floyd can only guess what Conor has in store. This is a tremendous advantage in McGregor’s favor.

4. Style Matters

McGregor also has the advantage of having a unique style. He fights from a further distance than most boxers and with a longer, more sideways karate-style stance. This is not necessarily a style recommended for boxing generally speaking, but in the context of a single boxing match, there is an advantage to being the fighter who has the less traditional style. In short, Mayweather has little if any experience sparring or fighting someone who utilizes McGregor’s range and stance, whereas McGregor has often sparred and fought against the traditional boxing stance and distance. When Conor’s unique style is considered alongside with the absence of boxing fight tape on McGregor, the disadvantage for Mayweather is clear. Mayweather cannot know what to expect, and will have to discern and adapt to McGregor’s style on the fly.

One might also note here that McGregor is a southpaw, and that Mayweather supposedly has greater difficulty against southpaws compared to orthodox fighters. However, Mayweather recently beat one of the best southpaws of all time, Manny Pacquiao. He did so in part through a fight-camp dedicated to adapting his style for a southpaw opponent, even enlisting the help of former southpaw opponent Zab Judah. Therefore, McGregor’s southpaw stance is not likely to be the issue; his unique distance and long-stance are likely to present the more novel challenges for Mayweather to solve.

5. Ring Rust (Probably) Matters

Whether ring rust is real depends on who you ask. Dominik Cruz insists it is not, whereas George St-Pierre insists that it is. What about boxing’s most dominant middleweight champion of all time, Marvelous Marvin Hagler, what does he think? “I know that when a fighter is out of the ring for more than two years, when he comes back he isn’t the same anymore.” Floyd Mayweather has not fought in two years.

Boxer Floyd Mayweather meets mixed martial-artist Conor McGregor on August 26 in Paradise, Nevada. While Mayweather has the advantage of being the better boxer, every other advantage will be in the corner of Conor McGregor.

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