"Merab Can't Control Him": Umar Nurmagomedov Offers Cold Take on Yan vs. Dvalishvili 3
Umar Nurmagomedov just gave his prediction for the trilogy bout between Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan with the title on the line.
Top bantamweight contender Umar Nurmagomedov is offering an ice-cold breakdown of the upcoming trilogy bout between bantamweight champion Petr Yan and former titlist Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 333, predicting that "No Mercy" will retain his crown.
Nurmagomedov Points to Takedown Control as the Deciding Factor
The rivalry between Yan and Dvalishvili stands balanced at one victory apiece heading into their high-stakes rubber match. Dvalishvili famously dominated their first encounter in March 2023, overwhelming Yan with a relentless pace and firing off a record-setting 49 takedown attempts.
However, Yan flipped the script in December 2025 at UFC 323, delivering a masterclass in takedown defense and heavy body striking to secure a unanimous decision, dethrone "The Machine," and reclaim the UFC bantamweight championship.
Speaking to Red Corner MMA regarding how the upcoming third chapter will play out, Nurmagomedov made it clear that Yan holds the fundamental style advantage over Dvalishvili, specifically when it comes to controlling action on the mat.
"Based on their skill sets, Petr has good boxing, Merab has wrestling, but he can't control opponents on the ground the way Aljamain Sterling did," Nurmagomedov said. "Merab might take Petr down, but he will get up."
Nurmagomedov's analysis highlights a crucial tactical distinction in Dvalishvili's wrestling style. While Dvalishvili possesses unmatched wrestling cardio, averaging 6.36 takedowns per 15 minutes inside the Octagon with a staggering 21-5 overall MMA record, he relies primarily on volume chain wrestling and rapid resets rather than heavy top control or submission threats.
In contrast, Sterling utilized suffocating back-taking ability and heavy top pressure to secure a split-decision victory over Yan at UFC 273 back in 2022. According to Nurmagomedov, because Dvalishvili lacks that specific brand of positional control, a healthy Yan will continuously scramble back to his feet and enforce his elite striking output.
Yan enters the trilogy sporting a 20-5 record inside the Octagon, bolstered by signature striking wins over José Aldo and Cory Sandhagen. After neutralizing Dvalishvili's offensive bursts at UFC 323, the Russian champion proved he possesses the turnover defense needed to negate "The Machine's" non-stop engine.
With both fighters set to settle the score at UFC 333, Nurmagomedov expects Yan's superior striking, sharp boxing combinations, and scramble ability to prove decisive once again, leaving Dvalishvili unable to hold the champion down.
