Former roommates and friends turned bitter rivals, Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal will finally have their grudge match in the main event of UFC 272. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Saturday, March 5th, 2022 10 p.m. EST (ESPN+ PPV)
- Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Line: Colby Covington (-320) and Jorge Masvidal (+250); Over 4.5 rounds (-160) and under 4.5 rounds (+130); Covington by decision (-115) and Masvidal by KO/TKO/DQ (+450) odds from Draftkings Sportsbook.
Jorge Masvidal
Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal has been fighting in the UFC since 2013, breaking through as one of the organization’s more visible stars with a spectacular flying knee knockout in 2019 but now is looking to avoid his third straight loss after back-to-back losses to welterweight champion Kamaru Usman.
Masvidal has a two inch reach advantage over Covington, averaging 4.22 significant strikes landed per minute (SLpM) with a 48 percent striking accuracy, 3.01 strikes absorbed per minute (SApM) with 65 percent striking defense, 1.54 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 59 percent takedown accuracy, 75 percent takedown defense and 0.3 submissions per 15 minutes, according to UFC Stats.
Masvidal is coming off of two losses to Kamaru Usman (TKO Rd1, 2021 and UD, 2020), and wins over Nate Diaz (doctor’s stoppage Rd3, 2019), Ben Askren (TKO Rd1, 2019) and Darren Till (TKO Rd2, 2019).
Colby Covington
Colby “Chaos” Covington first fought in the UFC in 2014, only losing once before he won the interim welterweight title in 2018. After having the title stripped due to inactivity, Covington came up short in two more chances at the belt but currently shows no signs of slowing down.
Covington is four years younger than Masvidal and averages 4.14 significant strikes landed per minute (SLpM) with a 38 percent striking accuracy, 3.09 strikes absorbed per minute (SApM) with 55 percent striking defense, 4.10 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 46 percent takedown accuracy, 72 percent takedown defense and 0.1 submissions per 15 minutes, according to UFC Stats.
Covington’s only losses since 2015 were title bouts to Kamaru Usman (UD, 2021 and TKO Rd5, 2019) and has his most recent victories over Tyron Woodley (TKO Rd5, 2020), Robbie Lawler (UD, 2019) and Rafael dos Anjos (UD, 2018).
Covington vs. Masvidal Narratives
The juice on this betting line reflects the narrative that Covington is at a different level than his former training partner Masvidal, likely the second best welterweight in the world who would be wearing the strap if Usman did not exist. Covington backers believe that the pressure, wrestling and cardio will be too much for a 37 year old Masvidal whose iconic knockout of Askren may have led to inflating his market value.
Masvidal backers insist that this line is too wide and that Masvidal’s durability, striking and takedown defense are solid enough to keep the grudge match close and confer value on the underdog.
Covington vs. Masvidal Prediction
As mentioned last week in picking Islam Makhachev to finish Bobby Green, the handicapping process usually gives the advantage to the dominant wrestler over the dominant striker, and in four of Masvidal’s last six losses in the UFC, he was taken down 2-0, 5-0, 4-0 and 3-1. Expect Covington to take down Masvidal multiple times and win the minutes and only wonder whether this fight finishes inside the distance.
While it it not clear how he will respond after being knocked out for the first time in his UFC career, Masvidal has been known for his durability and going the distance in contests that he didn’t finish himself. Covington is not known for his knockout power or submissions, so do not anticipate either occurring in this grudge match.
Pick: Covington by decision (-115)
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