UFC Prague Picks and Props

Thiago Santos of Brazil enters the Octagon before facing Anthony Smith in their middleweight bout during the UFC Fight Night event at Mangueirinho Arena on February 03, 2018 in Belem, Brazil.

Normally right about now I would be dropping a DraftKings dream team post right about now in an effort to help everyone make some money. This week it’s UFC Prague picks and props. Why is that? Because I couldn’t in good faith try to pass off making heads or tails of this card in a DraftKings perspective to my grandma let alone the good people of the MMA internet. It takes a big man to admit when they are out of their depth and that’s exactly what I am doing. Even if I did crush the ESPN debut card last weekend. So this week we are going to the books for some straight up betting advice. The best couple plays I got for the weekend. Then next weekend back to your regularly scheduled DraftKings programming with UFC 235.

Thiago Santos vs Jan Blachowicz Over 1.5 rounds (-140)

On paper, I see how it’s easy to look at this as a suckers bet. You see the small round number, a relatively even line, and figure something has to be up. Well, it’s not. This money is just as guaranteed as it appears to be. For as much of a KO threat as Thiago Santos is he hasn’t finished a fight in the first round since fighting Jack Hermansson in 2017. Jan Blachowicz is no better he hasn’t put someone away inside one since he fought Ilir Latifi all the way back in 2014. That’s convincing enough evidence for me to believe this is at least getting out of the first. Then you just have to sweat out another two and a half minutes and we’re going to Sizzler.

If someone is getting finished in this fight it’s because they gas down the stretch, not because they caught with a nuclear missile in the first 60 seconds. Do the smart thing here, take the over.

Gillian Robertson wins by decision (+335)

I don’t think I need to explain too much as to why I think Gillian Robertson is going to win this fight. Veronica Macedo if anything has shown the ability to be taken down and controlled by larger athletic grapplers. Hell, Andrea Lee isn’t even a grappler by trade and she pulled it off. This will be another fight where Macedo is simply not big enough to fend off enough takedowns to win this fight. That said, Macedo is catching far too much disrespect here. For this line to be +335 bookmakers are thinking Robertson is going to go out there bop Macedo once and call it a day. That’s just downright disrespectful. She’s still a competent fighter, not a fan who won a raffle. Too great of value here to ignore even if Robertson has four submission wins.

Gian Villante vs Michal Oleksiejczuk fight goes to a decision (-170)

Is this going to be wholesomely stressful? Yes. Will Gian Villante get rocked and almost finished in a brief moment of action? Probably. But at the end of the day, this man has made a living off relatively uneventful split decisions the past two years. That’s not a trend I see coming to a close any time soon, not against guys like Michal Oleksiejczuk. So long as Villante is still a guy who wants to throw one two’s, throw long kicks at range, circle, and repeat (spoiler alert he’s still very much that guy) this fight goes to a decision 11/10 times.

There you have it. That’s the best I got for UFC Prague picks and props. May the gods of gambling be with you all. Like I said before next week we’ll be back on our regular DraftKings schedule with UFC 235. It’ll be a Jon Jones fight week so once we get through this a little Saturday afternoon action this weekend rest assured nothing controversial will happen at all next week.

All the odds in this post are as featured on bestfightodds.com

 

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