Analysis

Kamaru Usman’s Keys to Victory at UFC 294

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One of the biggest stories of the year dropped last week as we learnt that Kamaru Usman will be stepping in to face undefeated phenom, Khamzat ChimaevBorz was set to clash with Paulo Costa, however, the Brazilian had to withdraw from the bout due to injury.

Usman will be making the move up to middleweight for the first time in his career, off the back of two straight losses and taking on a huge task with Chimaev. With that being said, it’s not as if he hasn’t looked at Chimaev before, having discussed a potential match-up in May this year.

It’ll go down in Abu Dhabi at UFC 294 and we take a look at Kamaru Usman’s keys to victory.

How does Usman get the better of Chimaev?

Don’t get overwhelmed

Chimaev has a tendency to start extremely fast in fights. He looks to meet his opponent in the centre of the octagon, throw wild strikes, land a takedown and overwhelm his opponents. It’s happened countless times during his short UFC career thus far.

His strike differential is one of the best that the UFC has ever seen, often not receiving a single strike during fights. Of his six UFC bouts, Chimaev has been landed on 120 times. 119 of those strikes were landed by Gilbert Burns in a single fight, showing just how overwhelming his style can be.

Usman will likely be the slightly smaller man in the octagon on fight night, but he can’t allow the moment or the overwhelming nature of Chimaev’s game to get the better of him. He has to stay calm under pressure, something that he’s sometimes struggled with. Against Colby Covington in their first fight, Usman saw himself in a gunfight with his bitter rival, something he would benefit from not doing with Chimaev.

He has to take the beginning of the fight slow, measured and be hyper-aware of the takedown threat. He must use his footwork and be switched on throughout.

Don’t be afraid to grapple

Chimaev is a phenomenal grappler, offensively. He’s taken down every opponent he’s faced (apart from Gerald Meerschaert whom he knocked out in 17 seconds) and holds a takedown accuracy of 57%. For Chimaev, it often only takes one takedown for him to dominate his opponents, once he gets his hands on an opponent, it’s usually a short night for them.

He’s notably got a 100% takedown defence too. Gilbert Burns attempted five takedowns, however, was unsuccessful on all attempts. With that being said, Usman is a phenomenal offensive (and defensive) wrestler. He’s only been taken down once in his career, boasting a 97% takedown defensive record.

He, prior to linking up with Jason Wittman, had an extremely wrestling heavy style. It would benefit him to try and wear on Chimaev as we’ve seen him fade in the only fight he’s had that’s gone late. He could do this by using his offensive wrestling. Also, if the takedown threat is there, he can keep Chimaev guessing, leading to more successes.

Hook off the Clinch

Due to Usman’s ability to defend the takedown, we can expect large proportions of this fight to be contested in the clinch and on the inside. Usman should be preparing for a gritty fight and be working on his striking in the clinch as well as his clinch defence.

The time in his career that Chimaev has been in the most danger is against Burns when Burns caught and rocked him with a huge hook on the inside. He wasn’t able to step back, create distance and punish Borz, however.

Usman would benefit from drilling the hook off the clinch or on the inside of the clinch. If the hook off the clinch doesn’t work, the former 170lbs king can mix in his takedowns but it’s certainly a technique that is worth attempting. We’ve seen Usman look to hook off the clinch multiple times, especially against Edwards, so we know that it’s a technique that he has in his arsenal.

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Frazer Krohn has been with MMASucka for nearly 5 years. He is the host of the MMASucka podcast, which is released every Monday. He's the author of a series of six books about MMA, which were published in 2023.

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