Analysis

Vergil Ortiz Jr. vs. Fredrick Lawson Breakdown

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Old Man Winter is knocking on the door for parts of the United States this opening weekend of 2024. Contingent upon where you are in relation to the storm’s path, you might be snowbound on Saturday night.

Ordinarily, being stuck at home in the middle of a snowstorm could be cause for concern and despair, but not here. While some will be homebound trying to figure out how to spend a winter’s night, you won’t be one of them.

After all, you’ve got plans on Saturday. Although some might choose to turn on ESPN or their local ABC affiliate to watch the Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts game in a special Saturday night edition of Monday Night Football,  others will fire up their computer, gaming console, or mobile device to turn on DAZN.

This weekend, the sweet science of boxing takes center stage on the subscription-based streaming platform, and it does so live from the center of the combat sports universe. Virgin Hotels is the host venue for Oscar de la Hoya’s Golden Boy Boxing lid-lifter.

Ortiz Collides With Lawson in Boxing’s First Main Event of 2024

Live coverage of the event begins Saturday at 8 pm ET/ 5 pm PT on DAZN. Absent of any postponements or cancellations to the slate, seven matches will be held to kick off the new year in the squared circle.

Your first main event in the sport for 2024 is a whopper of a fight, at least on paper. Undefeated Vergil Ortiz Jr. (19-0, 19 KOs) seeks to obtain his 20th consecutive win to start his career as a pugilist when he meets up with Fredrick Lawson (30-3, 22 KOs) in the headlining bout at super-welterweight.

This bout is an advertised maximum of 12 rounds at three minutes per round to close out the night’s activities.

Vergil Ortiz Jr. vs. Fredrick Lawson Fighter Comparison and Betting Odds

Heading into Saturday night’s main event, Vergil Ortiz stands as the taller man at 5-foot-10, compared to the 5-foot-9 frame of Fredrick Lawson. Both of these men have identical 70-inch reaches.

As of Wednesday afternoon, the oddsmakers have Vergil Ortiz Jr. installed as a -2500 favorite on the money line, while Fredrick Lawson counters as a +1200 underdog. If you plan on betting on this or any other fight happening this weekend, please wager responsibly.

Vergil Ortiz Moving Up to Super-Welterweight for Saturday’s Fight After Medical Issues

Vergil Ortiz Jr. has yet to lose so far in his professional boxing career, defeating 19 straight opponents by way of knockout. It’s been a while since he stepped inside the ring, however.

To find his last fight, you’d have to go back to Aug. 6, 2022. That night, he scored a ninth-round TKO (body shot) of Michael McKinson (26-1, 4 KOs) on DAZN for the WBO International Welterweight Championship.

After, Ortiz was slated to meet Eimantas Stanionis (14-0, 9 KOs) for the WBA Welterweight Championship on April 29 and again on July 8. Both scheduled dates were cancelled amid Ortiz dealing with medical issues before fight night, including hospitalization due to a fainting spell ahead of the makeup in July.

He had been battling rhabdomyolysis, a condition which causes muscle tissue to bring electrolytes into a person’s blood and potentially yield to kidney failure. In a recent interview, Ortiz told Dan Rafael that he’s ready to make a return.

“I feel great,” Ortiz began. “This kind of feeling that I’m feeling right now, it’s familiar. This reminds me of when I was at my best. It’s kind of funny thinking about it because I was like ‘Man, I haven’t felt like this in a long time.’ I have a really good feeling about this [fight].”

Vergil Ortiz Jr. had to take time off from the fights in the ring so that he could win the fight of his life. Can he score his 20th straight win inside the squared circle on Saturday?

Fredrick Lawson Returns After Eight Months Away

In the other corner, Fredrick Lawson has posted a record of 4-1 in his last five fights. Most recently, he bested Estevan Villalobos (16-2-1, 12 KOs) on April 29 of last year (unanimous decision) after 10 rounds in Arlington, TX.

Like Vergil Ortiz Jr., Fredrick Lawson comes in after a layoff of his own, though the latter’s layoff isn’t nearly as long. Saturday’s bout marks Lawson’s first in a little over eight months’ time, and the questions are there for him, as well:

How much ring rust does he have leading into a fight against an opponent of Ortiz’ ilk? Tune in and find out.

Analysis, Film Study, and Prediction

You’ll have a fight matching two competitors with orthodox stances against one another on Saturday night. This main event will be up for grabs with no clear-cut stylistic advantage here.

Watch for Vergil Ortiz to Work the Body

With Vergil Ortiz Jr. owning a perfect stoppage rate, it stands to reason that it may very well continue here. He can strike from anywhere at any moment, but a body shot can put a guy down and out, like Ortiz did against Michael McKinson in 2022.

In the ninth round of a scheduled 12, he executed a perfect punch to McKinson’s midsection right after the command to fight, crumpling him like a piece of paper within a few seconds. Although McKinson got back to his feet and Ortiz continued to land a few punches afterward, the corner threw in the towel, ending the fight just 27 seconds into the round.

All it will take Vergil Ortiz Jr. to win his debut at 154 lbs. is a crisp punch right on the button. He has the right stuff, and now he’s got to show it once again.

Don’t Discount Fredrick Lawson’s Skills

In the other corner, Fredrick Lawson can also bring the heat when the situation calls for it, as was the case in his fight last year vs. Collinson Korley. During the first round of an advertised eight, the two men stalked each other as Lawson continually landed a flurry of shots.

After a minute and 37 seconds, Korley’s body folded on him. He was down and out at that very moment, leaving the referee no choice but to wave off the contest after administering the count.

Look for Fredrick Lawson to try and catch Vergil Ortiz napping in this main event. If he can knock Ortiz off his gameplan, Lawson will score a stunning upset.

Final Thoughts

Even though this fight has no championship stakes attached to it, it’s still going to be a cracking affair in Sin City on Saturday night. Be sure to get back from the fridge before the first round starts. You might not have a chance to go to the fridge once the bell rings.

Prediction: Vergil Ortiz Jr. by 10th-Round Knockout. 

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Drew Zuhosky has been writing about combat sports since May of 2018, coming to MMASucka after stints at Overtime Heroics and Armchair All-Americans. A graduate of Youngstown State University in Youngstown, OH, Drew is a charter member of the Youngstown Press Club. Prior to beginning his professional career, Drew was a sportswriter for YSU's student-run newspaper, The Jambar, where he supplied Press Box Perspective columns every week.

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