Analysis

2024 PFL 9 Main Event Breakdown

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In Washington, DC, it’s another summer where the status quo is in full effect. As usual, people in the capital city of the United States of America can’t seem to make up their minds. This Friday, however, politics takes a back seat to competitive violence.

On the night after the Democratic National Convention ends in Chicago, the White House won’t be a top tourist attraction in DC. For one night, The Anthem is the hottest venue in town. After two playoff cards, the PFL’s championship picture will be fully crystalized this weekend during PFL 9.

Live coverage of PFL 9 begins at 7 pm ET/ 4 pm PT on ESPN+ before moving over to ESPN proper at 10 pm ET/ 7 pm PT. All told, barring any late adjustments between now and Friday night, counting showcase fights and playoff contests in the featherweight and welterweight classes, the final version of PFL 9 features 11 MMA bouts.

Last Championship Berth on the Line in PFL 9 Main Event

Highlighting the night’s activities is a contest at 145 lbs. in the PFL 9 main event. No. 1 seed Brendan Loughnane (29-5 MMA, 2-0 2024 PFL) meets up with No. 4 seed Kai Kamaka III (14-5-1 MMA, 2-0 2024 PFL) for the last spot on the championship card this November.

Its winner will advance to face off against the victor of the 2 vs. 3 matchup between Gabriel Braga (14-1 MMA, 2-0 2024 PFL) and Timur Khizriev (16-0 MMA, 2-0 2024 PFL) in the fall for the title. The PFL 9 main event is an advertised maximum of three rounds at five minutes per round to close the show.

2024 PFL 9 Main Event Fighter Comparison and Betting Odds

Heading into the PFL 9 main event on Friday night, Brendan Loughnane stands as the taller combatant at 5-foot-9, compared to the 5-foot-7 frame of Kai Kamaka III. Loughnane owns a two-inch reach advantage (71 inches to 69 inches) over Kamaka, while the latter owns a one-inch leg reach advantage (38 inches to 37 inches) over the former.

Currently, the oddsmakers have Brendan Loughnane installed as a -345 favorite on the money line, while Kai Kamaka counters as a +275 underdog. If you plan on betting on this or any other fight in MMA and/or combat sports happening this weekend, please wager responsibly.

2022 Champion Loughnane Looks for Third Straight Victory and Another Shot at Gold

Brendan Loughnane, the 2022 PFL Featherweight Champion, has posted a record of 4-1 in his last five MMA bouts dating back to the 2023 PFL season. Currently, he’s on a two-fight winning streak, with both of those victories coming by way of knockout.

Last time out, he scored a second-round TKO due to a doctor’s stoppage over Justin Gonzales (14-5 MMA, 0-2 2024 PFL) during PFL 6 at the end of June. This victory gave him 11 points in the regular season standings and, by extension, the No. 1 seed in the bracket by night’s end.

After the fight, Loughnane talked to Sean O’Connell about how his efforts in the cage that evening were affected by already having sewn up a playoff berth earlier in the show.

“Last year, I slipped up and ended up going home,” Loughnane began. “I don’t like watching the fights before [mine] to know ‘Oh, if you win by one point, you’re going to be…’, I hate all that. So, today, I tried to switch off from that, and then, I heard ‘You’re through [to the playoffs] anyway, so let’s be patient, Brendan’, trying to be patient, maybe a little too patient.”

This is a man who sipped the celebratory champagne two years ago upon winning the championship. Now, he’s 15 minutes (or less) away from getting back to the title fight for the second time in three years.

Kai Kamaka Poised to Run Winning Streak to Six

In the other corner, Kai Kamaka III has posted a perfect 5-0 record in his last five MMA fights dating back to October of 2022. A crossover from Bellator MMA following the PFL’s purchase of the latter promotion last November, he scored a unanimous decision victory over Pedro Carvalho (13-10, 0-2 PFL) on June 28 in Sioux Falls, SD.

The result eliminated Carvalho from any playoff possibilities this year. Kamaka hasn’t lost since sustaining a defeat in his home state of Hawaii in April of 2022 and he’s hungry to bring a $1 million check back to the island.

He has to get past a tough customer in the form of Brendan Loughnane on Friday. Will he be able to rise to the occasion and score an important victory?

Analysis, Film Study, and Prediction

Friday’s PFL 9 main event is another classic strength vs. strength matchup. Who will emerge victorious?

Loughnane Has Vicious Knees

If you haven’t seen how good Brendan Loughnane’s striking game is, just take a look at his June fight against Gonzales. During the second round of a scheduled three, after Loughnane received a cut over his eye in round one, the fighters went into the clinch. Upon Loughnane breaking free, they stalked one another, while Loughnane absorbed a left-handed shot.

Midway through the period, Loughnane connected on a nasty knee to the head, giving Gonzales a nasty vertical cut. The fight was paused to allow the doctor to take a look, and on the advice of the physician, ended after the cut was found to be too severe to permit the contest to resume.

If Brendan Loughnane can land a vicious shot to the head in the PFL 9 main event, he’ll be title fight-bound again this year.

Look for Kamaka to Use Kicks to Set Up Punches

In the other corner, there are times in MMA where a varied attack can get the job done. One need look no further than Kamaka’s fight vs. Kevin Boehm in 2022.

During the second round, Kai Kamaka scored with calf kicks to wobble Boehm. As the round progressed, Kamaka took Boehm down and worked from top mount, softening him up with ground and pound shots. Round three saw Boehm coming out like a house on fire with a leg kick, but Kamaka returned the favor with a kick to the liver.

About a minute into the final round, Kamaka scored with a kick to the leg to wobble Boehm. Smelling blood in the water, he started teeing off with a barrage of punches, including a flurry of ground and pound, to put Boehm away.

Kai Kamaka III’s key: Varying his strikes. If he can mix up his shots, he’ll score an upset.

Final Thoughts

The playoff drama reaches an exciting conclusion on Friday night. Don’t miss the PFL 9 main event.

Prediction: Brendan Loughnane by Second-Round TKO. 

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Drew Zuhosky has been writing about combat sports since May of 2018, coming to MMASucka after stints at Overtime Heroics and Armchair All-Americans. A graduate of Youngstown State University in Youngstown, OH, Drew is a charter member of the Youngstown Press Club. Prior to beginning his professional career, Drew was a sportswriter for YSU's student-run newspaper, The Jambar, where he supplied Press Box Perspective columns every week.