Analysis

Bellator Champions Series 4 Main Event Breakdown

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On a busy sports Saturday with pennant chase action going on in baseball, week two of the college football season, and international friendlies in the current FIFA window in soccer taking up part of the schedule, fans of MMA have a succulent banquet to partake in. If you ordered competitive violence from San Diego for dinner this Saturday night, Bellator’s chefs have you covered.

For the first time since Bellator 300 last fall, the promotion heads to San Diego, CA and Pechanga Arena for Bellator Champions Series 4. It’s the first half of back-to-back weeks of cards from Bellator.

A week from Saturday, they’ll head to London for Bellator Champions Series 5 from OVO Wembley. More on that event next week.

Lightweight Gold Up For Grabs at Pechanga Arena in Bellator Series 4 Main Event

Live coverage of Bellator Champions Series 4 is exclusive to MAX (formerly known as HBO MAX) inside the United States and DAZN inside the United Kingdom beginning at 8 pm ET/ 5 pm PT Saturday night (3 am London time Sunday morning. Due to a couple of late adjustments, the final version of Bellator Champions Series 4 features 10 MMA bouts.

Highlighting the night’s activities is the final championship fight of the weekend in the Bellator Champions Series 4 main event. Current Bellator MMA Lightweight Champion Usman Nurmagomedov (17-0, 1 NC MMA, 6-0, 1 NC Bellator squares off against challenger Alexander Shabily (24-3 MMA, 5-0 Bellator.)

This fight was to have taken place in Paris during Bellator Champions Series 2 on May 17 of this year but was postponed to this Saturday night due to the champion being sidelined by illness. As with all championship fights in Bellator, the Bellator Champions Series 4 main event is five rounds at five minutes per round to close the show.

Bellator Champions Series 4 Main Event Fighter Comparison and Betting Odds

Heading into the Bellator Champions Series 4 main event on Saturday night, champion Usman Nurmagomedov stands as the taller man at 5-foot-11, compared to the 5-foot-9 frame of challenger Alexander Shabily. Nurmagomedov owns a 1 1/2-inch reach advantage (72 inches even to 70 1/2 inches) over Shabily.

Currently, the oddsmakers have Usman Nurmagomedov installed as a -380 favorite on the money line, with Alexander Shabily countering as a +300 underdog. If you plan on betting on this or any other fight happening this weekend in MMA and/or combat sports, please wager responsibly.

Usman Nurmagomedov’s Fight With Illness Yields to Rescheduled Bout in Bellator Champions Series 4 Main Event

Usman Nurmagomedov has yet to lose in his MMA career. Last year, his bout versus Brent Primus (15-3, 1 NC MMA, 10-3, 1 NC Bellator), originally scored as a unanimous decision win for the former in Bellator 300 on Oct. 7, 2023, was retroactively reversed to a no-contest upon Nurmagomedov returning a positive drug test and subsequently receiving a six-month suspension from the sport, as well as a $50,000 (USD) fine, while still retaining the championship because the positive drug test was caused by medicine he’d been taking.

As previously mentioned, this contest was supposed to have occurred in the spring until it was scrapped. Initial published reports indicated that the champion at 155 lbs. couldn’t make the walk due to an injury.Β  However, Nurmagomedov mentioned in an interview withΒ MMA Junkie’sΒ Mike Bohn that he was sick ahead of the original bout.

“The last time when we were preparing for Paris,” Nurmagomedov said, through his translator, “I was just coming out of the month of Ramadan, when we had to fast and my body was weak. Maybe it was the coronavirus, but there was something [wrong] with my lungs.”

With a clean bill of health, will he get back in the win column on Saturday night?

Shabily Looks to Extend Winning Streak to 10

In the other corner, Alexander Shabily comes into the Bellator Champions Series 4 main event having gone 5-0 in his last five fights. Currently, he’s on a nine-fight winning streak dating back to August of 2017.

Last time out, he scored a unanimous decision victory over Patricky Pitbull [Patricky Freire] (25-14 MMA, 16-10 Bellator) in Bellator 301 back in November in Chicago during the last event from the promotion to air on Showtime. Pitbull has since crossed over to the PFL‘s roster for its 2024 season.

Anybody who’s gone five rounds with a competitor of Pitbull’s caliber and comes out a winner deserves a title shot. On Saturday, he’ll get that opportunity in the Bellator Champions Series 4 main event.

Analysis, Film Study and Prediction

With these two men having combined for 33 wins by stoppage, don’t expect the Bellator Champions Series 4 main event to go the full 25 minutes.

Watch Usman Nurmagomedov’s Ground Game

Roughly one-third of Usman Nurmagomedov’s career victories have been recorded by way of submission. Once he takes a guy down, it could be just a few moments before the fight ends. Chris Gonzalez found this out the hard way a couple of years ago.

During the opening round, Gonzalez put Nurmagomedov in a clinch before the latter landed a shot to the body and executed a brilliant takedown. From there, it was game, set, and match with Nurmagomedov going to work on a front choke and getting the submission.

Look for Usman Nurmagomedov to shoot for the takedown at the earliest opportunity on Saturday. All it takes is one takedown to change the complexion of the fight.

Alexander Shabily Vicious With Strikes

In the other corner, Alexander Shabily subscribes to the gospel according to Lee Corso: “Not so fast, my friend.” He can neutralize Nurmagomedov by throwing and landing the big shots, like he did versus Brent Primus in June of 2022.

Upon absorbing a kick from his adversary, Shabily came right back and landed a brutal right cross to drop Primus before ending the bout with a flurry of ground and pound shots.

If Shabily can counterstrike effectively, he’ll be the new champion.

Analysis, Film Study, and Prediction

This is a great contest on paper. Enjoy it.

Prediction: Usman Nurmagomedov by First-Round Submission.Β 

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Drew Zuhosky has been writing about combat sports since May of 2018, coming to MMASucka after stints at Overtime Heroics and Armchair All-Americans. A graduate of Youngstown State University in Youngstown, OH, Drew is a charter member of the Youngstown Press Club. Prior to beginning his professional career, Drew was a sportswriter for YSU's student-run newspaper, The Jambar, where he supplied Press Box Perspective columns every week.