Analysis

UFC 308 Main Event Breakdown

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Halloween is a time for tricks and treats. Next Thursday (or perhaps earlier if your community is one that holds its trick or treat window ahead of the actual holiday,) ghosts and goblins will be knocking on your door begging for candy while wearing various costumes.

If you’re the one in your household tasked with buying those fun size bags of candy, make sure to take your phone with you to the market, especially if you’re buying the candy on Saturday afternoon. MMA‘s top promotion, the UFC, is offering a pre-Halloween treat to fans of competitive violence all over North America.

This weekend, the October slate for the UFC closes out with its second pay-per-view event of the month, UFC 308, taking place at Etihad Arena on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Due to the eight-hour time difference between the UAE and the United States, Saturday’s premium card takes place a little earlier than normal.

Live coverage begins at 10 am ET/ 7 am PT on ESPN+ with the prelims. Main card action follows at 2 pm ET/ 11 am PT on ESPN+ pay-per-view.

Topuria Takes on Holloway for Featherweight Gold

All told, the final version of UFC 308 features a full 13-fight card. Highlighting the day’s activities will be the battle for the UFC Featherweight Championship in the UFC 308 main event.

Incumbent 145-lb. champion Ilia Topuria (15-0 MMA, 7-0 UFC) meets challenger and No. 2 contender, former featherweight titleholder Max Holloway (26-7 MMA, 22-7 UFC) for the belt. As with all UFC championship bouts, this one is an advertised maximum of five rounds at five minutes per round to cap the show.

UFC 308 Main Event Fighter Comparison and Betting Odds

Heading into the UFC 308 main event on Saturday night, challenger Max Holloway stands as the taller man at 5-foot-11, compared to the 5-foot-7 frame of Ilia Topuria. While both the champion and the challenger hold identical 69-inch reach advantages, Holloway owns a five-inch reach advantage (42 inches to 37 inches) over Topuria.

Currently, the oddsmakers have Ilia Topuria as a -250 betting favorite on the money line, while Max Holloway counters as a +205 underdog. If you plan on betting on this or any other fight this weekend in MMA or combat sports, please wager responsibly.

Topuria Looks to Make First Defense of Title a Successful One

Ilia Topuria enters the UFC 308 main event having yet to lose thus far in his MMA career. Most recently, he scored a second-round knockout with a right hook against Alexander Volkanovski (26-4 MMA, 13-3 UFC) on Feb. 17 during UFC 298’s main event in Anaheim from Honda Center to take the title.

Recently, Topuria talked to ESPN’s Brett Okamoto, revealing that he filmed a motion picture.

“The idea behind the movie was that we didn’t have any Georgian or Spanish world champions,” he began. “I always knew that I was about to become a world champion. I always had that self-belief, so we start with the idea of ‘I want to show to the world that it doesn’t matter where you come from. If you know where you’re going, you have a clear imagination in your head, you can achieve anything in this life.'”

Topuria has had his close-ups, both inside the Octagon and for the movie cameras. Will his next close-up for the camera feature him holding the UFC Featherweight Championship for the second time?

Can Holloway Reclaim the Title?

In the other corner, Max Holloway has posted a mark of 4-1 in his last five fights. At present, the former champion has won three contests in a row.

Back on April 13, Holloway scored a fifth-round knockout with one second remaining on the clock versus Justin Gaethje (25-5 MMA, 8-5 UFC) during UFC 300 to claim the BMF Championship in a lightweight bout. The one nicknamed “Blessed” has quite the championship pedigree.

He’s previously staked claim to the featherweight title, having defended it four times from June of 2017 until July of 2019 after unifying it against Jose Aldo. Holloway currently sports a 5-2 record in divisional championship bouts during his time in the UFC, and a 6-2 record in title fights when factoring in the BMF contest this past April.

This is a man who’s been down this road many times before. Will he drive to victory lane on Saturday night in the UFC 308 main event?

Analysis, Film Study, and Prediction

Stylistically, the UFC 308 main event looks to favor Ilia Topuria, a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, compared to Max Holloway’s brown belt in BJJ.

Look For Topuria to Vary His Strikes

Ilia Topuria is a well-rounded fighter, something that was on display during the second round of his fight vs. Alexander Volkanovski in February, where he hit his opponent with combinations, including shots to the body before Volkanovski retreated to the clinch. He timed his shots pretty well, also, peppering Volkanovski with leg kicks to give him a welt to his calf in the process.

With about 90 seconds to go in the round, Topuria moved in on Volkanovski to unload with a barrage of shots, punctuated by ground and pound, to end the contest. If Ilia Topuria can keep Max Holloway guessing in the UFC 308 main event, he can knock the challenger off of his gameplan.

Holloway Can End This With One Blow

In the other corner, Max Holloway has scored half of his wins by knockout. One need look no further than his fight in August of last year against Chan Sung Jung, the latter’s retirement bout.

Right after the command to fight was given to begin round three, “The Korean Zombie” unloaded on a barrage of shots, but Max Holloway fired back with a nasty right hook to knock Jung out and send him into retirement. All Holloway needs to do is find a home for as little as one punch square and true.

Final Thoughts

Clear some time from your schedule on Saturday for the UFC 308 main event. This could get interesting in a hurry.

Prediction: Ilia Topuria by Second-Round Knockout. 

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Drew Zuhosky has been writing about combat sports since May of 2018, coming to MMASucka after stints at Overtime Heroics and Armchair All-Americans. A graduate of Youngstown State University in Youngstown, OH, Drew is a charter member of the Youngstown Press Club. Prior to beginning his professional career, Drew was a sportswriter for YSU's student-run newspaper, The Jambar, where he supplied Press Box Perspective columns every week.