Analysis

UFC Vegas 100 Main Event Breakdown

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Saturday marks the end of an era, at least temporarily, in Enterprise, NV. One week removed from a visit to Edmonton, MMA‘s top promotion, the UFC, returns to its Apex facility for the last time in 2024. Earlier reports indicated that after the Nov. 9 UFC Fight Night card, the venue would shutter its doors until late spring for renovations at a cost of $25 million (USD).

While the renovations will still be going on after UFC Vegas 100 this weekend, the schedule of events for the new year indicate that the promotion will now return to the Apex for its first UFC Fight Night of 2025 on Saturday, Jan. 11. That night’s card has yet to have its main event finalized at this time.

Back to the immediate future: This Saturday night, the last UFC Fight Night at the Apex before the calendar switches over to the new year begins at 4 pm ET/ 1 pm PT on ESPN+ inside the United States with the prelims before main card action follows at 7 pm ET/ 4 pm PT on the Disney-owned subscription-based streaming platform.

Welterweights Take The Stage in UFC Vegas 100 Main Event

All told, absent of any late postponements or cancellations ahead of the event, the final version of UFC Vegas 100 will feature a full 12-fight card. Highlighting the night’s activities is a contest at 170 lbs. in the UFC Vegas 100 main event.

No. 15 contender Neil Magny (29-12 MMA, 22-11 UFC)  fights to stay in the rankings against 26-fight veteran, unranked Carlos Prates (20-6 MMA, 3-0 UFC) in the headliner. As with all UFC main events, this one is an advertised maximum of five rounds at five minutes per round.

UFC Vegas 100 Main Event Fighter Comparison and Betting Odds

Heading into the UFC Vegas 100 main event on Saturday night, Neil Magny stands as the taller competitor at 6-foot-3, compared to the 6-foot-1 frame of Carlos Prates. Magny owns a two-inch reach advantage (80 inches to 78 inches) and a 1 1/2-inch leg reach advantage (45 inches even to 43 1/2 inches) over Prates.

Currently, the oddsmakers have Carlos Prates installed as a -750 betting favorite on the money line, while Neil Magny counters as a +550 underdog. If you plan on betting on this or any other fight in MMA or combat sports this weekend, please wager responsibly.

Magny Ready To Go for UFC Vegas 100 Main Event Saturday Night

Neil Magny enters the UFC Vegas 100 main event this weekend having posted a record of 2-3 in his last five fights. Most recently, he sustained a first-round knockout (ground and pound shots) at the hands of Michael Morales (17-0 MMA, 5-0 UFC) on Aug. 24 during UFC Vegas 96 on ESPN from the Apex facility in Enterprise.

Saturday’s UFC Vegas 100 main event marks Neil Magny’s 41st MMA appearance across all promotions and his 34th since joining the UFC. Wednesday afternoon, he met with the media and offered up some glowing words about Carlos Prates.

“Knowing the camp that he trades at and his background, I know he’s no slouch,” Magny told the press during the pre-fight media junket. “Though I know he’s predominantly a striker, I know he’s going to have pretty good wrestling defense and things like that, as well. I know I have a tough test ahead of me and I can’t wait to go out there and deliver.”

The time for talk is just about over. Can Neil Magny get back in the win column in the UFC Vegas 100 main event?

Carlos Prates in First UFC Main Event Saturday Night

In the other corner, Carlos Prates has gone 5-0 in his last five fights. An alumnus of the LFA and ONE Championship, he’s currently on a 10-fight winning streak dating back to 2019.

Last time out, he scored a second-round knockout (left hook) of Li Jingliang (19-9 MMA, 11-7 UFC) during UFC 305 on Aug. 17. In so doing, Prates won his third consecutive Performance of The Night Award and pocketed $50,000 (USD) award.

Less than three months ago, Prates was opening up the main card in his third promotional fight. A year ago, he hadn’t even so much as made his UFC debut in the aftermath of securing his deal by way of his victory on Contender Series. While Carlos Prates is only three fights into his tenure in Dana White‘s promotion, he’s a seasoned veteran in this sport.

This is a man who’s clearly earned the main event spot on Saturday night. Only time will tell if Prates is able to capitalize on the spotlight.

Analysis, Film Study, and Prediction

Stylistically, the UFC Vegas 100 main event looks to favor Neil Magny, a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, compared to Carlos Prates’ background as a striker.

Magny Slick With Subs

While Neil Magny has only finished four of his opponents by way of submission, when it does happen, it can be something to behold, like it was in Broomfield, CO on Valentine’s Day of 2015 versus Kiichi Kunimoto. During the third and final round, after nearly getting the stoppage in the second round, Magny dropped Kunimoto and hunted for a submission.

Upon taking back mount and scoring with ground and pound shots, Kunimoto was spent. Magny applied the torque to lock up the rear-naked choke in under 90 seconds’ time. If Neil Magny can drop Carlos Prates in the UFC Vegas 100 main event, he can make him pay.

Look for Prates to Go Upstairs if Need Be

In the other corner, Carlos Prates is a vicious fighter. Don’t blink or look away from your monitors once he enters the cage, because if you do, you might end up missing the fight ending sequence.

A textbook example of his power can be found in his second LFA fight from March of 2023 versus Eduardo Ramon. Round one saw Prates being put in the clinch and withstanding a takedown effort from his opponent. Upon breaking away, Prates landed a head kick followed by some punches to drop Ramon to the mat.

Ramon got up, only to absorb another kick to the head from Prates, this one putting him down and out to stay. All Carlos Prates has to do is land one clean head kick and he’ll be in the rankings come Sunday morning.

Final Thoughts

At the core, the UFC Vegas 100 main event is a story of two fighters at a crossroads in their respective careers. Who will emerge victorious?

Prediction: Carlos Prates by First-Round Knockout. 

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Drew Zuhosky has been writing about combat sports since May of 2018, coming to MMASucka after stints at Overtime Heroics and Armchair All-Americans. A graduate of Youngstown State University in Youngstown, OH, Drew is a charter member of the Youngstown Press Club. Prior to beginning his professional career, Drew was a sportswriter for YSU's student-run newspaper, The Jambar, where he supplied Press Box Perspective columns every week.