Has Sergei Pavlovich Lost His Finishing Edge?
Hank Strandberg looks at why Sergei Pavlovich may have lost his power.
In the not-so-distant past, Russian power-puncher Sergei Pavlovich was regarded as the scariest finisher in the entire UFC, but after suffering a shocking knockout defeat to Tom Aspinall in 2023, has he lost his killer instinct?
Sergei Pavlovich Was Once Bane of Entire Heavyweight Class
Gaining entrance into the company in 2018, the undefeated Pavlovich had built himself up as a prime young European prospect after winning the Fight Night Global 265-lb title in 2017 after besting Belarusian kickboxing world champion Alexei Kudin. Making one defense of his throne, he proceeded to take his talents to the biggest stage in mixed martial arts, accepting a co-main event bout at UFC Fight Night 141, taking on the much more experienced Alistair Overeem. The gap between the two men showed itself almost immediately, with Overeem handing Pavlovich his first ever loss, finishing him in four minutes.
The defeat, while devastating for the young Pavlovich, serves as the springboard that would propel him nearly to the top of the heavyweight rankings. Following his starching at the hands of Overeem, the Moscow fighter went on to win his next six bouts in a row.
What’s more, he ended each and every one of them in the first round, taking out other fellow heavy-handed individuals such as Derrick Lewis, Tai Tuivasa, and Curtis Blaydes. This long succession of victories netted Pavlovich the historical accolade of the longest first round knockout win streak in UFC history.
Now a true force of nature in the organization, Sergei Pavlovich earned his most high-profile fight booking to date when he was selected to face English competitor Tom Aspinall at UFC 295 for the interim heavyweight championship. Although he did hold a sizable six-inch reach advantage, Pavlovich was ultimately knocked out by Aspinall after he landed a masterful one-two combination to the side of his head, making it his first defeat in five years.
Has Sergei Pavlovich Lost Ability to Stop Opponents?
Suffering another heart-breaking loss in his first-and-only UFC title match to date, Sergei Pavlovich returned after a seven month lay off to battle former teammate Alexander Volkov at UFC on ABC 6. While many fans of the one-time championship challenger were hoping to see him get back to his winning ways with another highlight reel stoppage, he looked surprisingly flat-footed and reserved in comparison to his past UFC contests. Combined with Volkov’s immaculate footwork to avoid his foe’s power blows, Pavlovich just couldn’t put together any meaningful offense, leading to a lackluster decision loss after getting outstruck almost two to one.
This same level of tentativeness followed Pavlovich into his next scrap against Jairzinho Rozenstruik that next February at UFC on ESPN+ 108. Although on paper this was expected to be a fun striking duel between two fantastic heavyweight boxers, the Russian again showed an unwillingness to engage in a head on firefight like during his legendary win streak, choosing instead to take Rozenstruik down and control him.
In fact, he was able to garner six minutes of control time with what were the only takedowns in his UFC journey so far, taking him the decision victory.
Though he did finally manage to snap his losing skid, it appeared Pavlovich had lost his edge when it came to finishing his opposition, deciding to adopt a more conservative stand up game that relied more on selective shot selection rather than wide swings laced with killer intent. This style of fighting also allowed him to collect another triumph in his next tilt against Waldo Cortes-Acosta last year at UFC Shanghai, where Pavlovich again won on the cards.
Sergei Pavlovich with Critical Test in UFC Macau Saturday
From an athlete’s standpoint, Pavlovich’s two-fight win streak stands as a superb return to form, with him having tightened up his boxing and wrestling to a much higher degree. However, his recent victories have led to some questioning if he still has the same drive to take out his prey inside the distance, as he had failed to both knockdown or visibly wobble his foes, and didn’t seem intent on doing so at all.
With the fear of being knocked out himself still seeminlgy fresh in his mind after his run in with Aspinall, Pavlovich looks dead set on avoiding as much damage as possible while being content with getting the job done via the judge's scorecards.
Coming up this weekend, Pavlovich locks horns with the young and physically towering Tallison Teixeira on the main card of UFC Macau. For the Russian phenom, a win is of the utmost necessity to remain relevant in the 265-lb upper echelon. A finish, though, could be all that he needs to put him on the short list of contenders in line for a championship opportunity.
Whether he can return to his roots as a taker of consciousnesses remains to be seen, but if Pavlovich can starch the Brazilian wrecking ball in amazing fashion, the gap between him and UFC gold could shrink exponentially.
