Marvin Vettori and the curse of an overachiever

Marvin Vettori is set to make his octagon return at UFC 332 on Oct. 3. He takes on Ismail Naurdiev in a middleweight bout that he cannot afford to lose. Part of that is because he's on the worst rough patch of his career, but also because he's held to standards that were never realistic for what he's always been: an overachiever.

The real Marvin Vettori: A journeyman

The truth is that Marvin Vettori is often judged by a brief purple patch that isn't a reflection of his abilities as a fighter. He's similar to the likes of Jorge Masvidal and Anthony Smith, both of whom are well-rounded and tough, but still journeymen who spent most of their careers winning some and losing some, before a flash in the pan moment elevated them, at least briefly, beyond their actual skill cap. As a fighter, Vettori isn't highly skilled, nor does he possess any above-average physical attributes besides an unbreakable chin. The fact that the most astonishing takeaway from his career is that he's never been knocked out, or even dropped, is telling.

In the cage, he is a decent striker, decent wrestler, and decent grappler. Unfortunately, he lacks finishing ability, and has no punching power. He has just two finishes in 18 UFC fights, and of those 18 fights, only 9 are wins, while 8 are losses, and one is a draw. His initial claim to fame was a close fight with future two-time UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya, to whom he lost a split-decision at UFC on Fox 29 back in 2018. The loss was a bitter one for Vettori, as he was adamant that he had done enough to win the fight. He'd get the chance to right this perceived wrong years later, but he first needed to bounce back from defeat. Fortunately for him, he more than bounced back, stringing together five straight wins.

This earned him a long-awaited rematch with Adesanya at UFC 263. Only this time, the fight was for the middleweight belt. While Vettori's win streak deserved praise, it also revealed a curious detail. He had only beaten one top five middleweight, Jack Hermansson, who he beat via unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 16 and was ranked #4 at the time. Kevin Holland, who he beat next, also via unanimous decision, at UFC Vegas 23, was nowhere near the top five at #10, and the other three fighters Vettori had beaten weren't even ranked, so he had just two ranked wins in his entire UFC career at that point.

To make matters worse for Vettori, Holland was an undersized ex-welterweight coming off a unanimous decision loss to Derek Brunson at UFC Vegas 22, before stepping in against him on short-notice to replace an injured Darren Till. So, while he had a five-fight win streak, only two wins were against ranked competition, and only one was against a true, top five middleweight coming off a win with a full training camp. Adesanya even brought up the nature of his win streak at the UFC 263 pre-fight press conference, for which Vettori had no answer, and in the end, he lost to Adesanya via unanimous decision in their rematch.

His next fight was a unanimous decision win over ex-middleweight title challenger Paulo Costa, who was ranked #2 at the time, and who he beat at UFC Vegas 41. However, it's a win that isn't as impressive as it seems upon closer inspection. The fight was Costa's first since losing to Adesanya via second-round TKO at UFC 253 a little over a year prior. In that time, he withdrew from a matchup with Robert Whittaker at UFC Vegas 24 due to illness, before refusing to fight Jared Cannonier at UFC Vegas 34 after citing issues with his purse. When he finally did accept a bout, the one against Vettori, he refused to cut weight, forcing the UFC to change the middleweight bout into a catchweight, then ultimately a light heavyweight one.

This was not a fit and serious Costa, who would go on to have a 1-4 run in five fights before winning again. Afterward, Vettori entered his own slump, losing to Whittaker via unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night 209. He managed to squeeze out a win against Roman Dolidze at UFC 286, beating him via unanimous decision, but Dolidze is now another fighter struggling with his form. Vettori has since lost four fights in a row, and is 2-6 in his last 8 fights. He is currently scheduled to face Ismail Naurdiev at UFC 332, and is in desperate need of a win. A loss, however, would only confirm what is known. It isn't age. He's only 32. Rather, Vettori is an overachiever, not a true championship level fighter.