Analysis

UFC 303 Main Event Breakdown

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It’s rare that the UFC has its annual International Fight Week before July 1, but with the promotion holding a bye week next weekend due to the long Fourth of July holiday weekend inside the United States, Dana White‘s organization ends the first half of the year with UFC 303.

T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is the host venue for the top MMA promotion’s first pay-per-view event of the summer. Stateside, UFC 303 is streamed via ESPN+ pay-per-view. Live coverage begins at 6 pm ET/ 3 pm PT on Saturday evening with the early prelims on ESPN proper,  ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass.

Late prelims follow at 8 pm ET/ 5 pm PT on ESPN and ESPN+ before ending with the main card at 10 pm ET/ 7 pm PT on ESPN+ pay-per-view. All told, barring any late postponements to the bout order, the final version of UFC 303 features a full 13-fight slate.

Light Heavyweight Title at Stake in UFC 303 Main Event

Highlighting the night is a championship battle in the UFC 303 main event. Originally, the card was to have been headlined by Conor McGregor‘s return to the cage against Michael Chandler. Two weeks ago, McGregor withdrew from the card due to what was later revealed to be a toe injury.

With McGregor out, the promotion booked a UFC Light Heavyweight Championship fight in the new UFC 303 main event. Incumbent champion Alex Pereira (10-2 MMA, 7-1 UFC) takes on challenger and No. 1 contender Jiri Prochazka (30-4-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC) in a rematch of their fight from UFC 295 in November of last year.

This title fight is an advertised maximum of five rounds at five minutes per round to close out the show.

UFC 303 Main Event Fighter Comparison and Betting Odds

Heading into the UFC 303 main event on Saturday night, champion Alex Pereira stands as the taller contender at 6-foot-4, compared to the 6-foot-3 frame of Jiri Prochazka. The challenger owns both a one-inch reach advantage (80 inches to 79 inches) and leg reach (45 inches to 44 inches) over the champion.

Currently, the oddsmakers have Alex Pereira installed as a -142 betting favorite on the money line, while Jiri Prochazka counters as a +120 underdog. If you plan on betting on this or any other fight happening this weekend in MMA or combat sports, please wager responsibly.

The Series So Far

Ahead of Saturday’s contest, the all-time series between Pereira and Prochazka stands at 1-0 in favor of the champ. Last fall, Pereira scored a second-round knockout over Prochazka. How will the rematch play out?

Pereira Rides Three-Fight Winning Streak into UFC 303 Main Event

Alex Pereira enters the UFC 303 main event having posted a record of 4-1 in his last five fights. At present, he’s on a three-fight winning streak.

After the original bout vs. Prochazka, he scored a first-round knockout (left hook followed by ground and pound strikes) over Jamahal Hill (12-2, 1 NC MMA, 6-2, 1 NC UFC) in UFC 300 this past April.  Wednesday afternoon, the champion met with the media in Vegas to talk about his adversary.

“He’s a great athlete,” Prochazka said, through his translator. “I respect his style. He’s a guy who’s composed and serious. He throws punches from everywhere. He’s a different guy, so it’s hard to find a guy like that.”

The time for talk and pleasantries is just about over. Will he successfully defend the title on Saturday night? Tune into the UFC 303 main event and find out.

Prochazka Sticking to Game Plan ahead of UFC 303 Main Event

In the other corner, challenger Jiri Prochazka has posted a 4-1 record in his last five fights. Like Pereira, he also fought on UFC 300 this past April, winning by second-round knockout due to ground and pound shots vs. Aleksandar Rakic (14-4 MMA, 6-3 UFC).

Despite losing in the original bout, Prochazka is intent on keeping the status quo this weekend.

“I have to say, no matter the result, I will not change,” the challenger began. “I will not change anything. I want to do the same this Saturday. I want to do the same, but much better. Be more precise with the details. Watch the calf kicks, just a little bit. And win. Just win!”

A confident statement from Prochazka for certain, but can he back it up?

Analysis, Film Study, and Prediction

Stylistically, the UFC 303 main event looks to favor Alex Pereira, a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and kickboxing, compared to Jiri Prochazka’s status as a Muay-Thai fighter.

“Poatan’s” Ground Game Could Spell the End of UFC 303 Main Event

Given that Alex Pereira is a striker by trade, it stands to reason that his fists could tell the tale in the UFC 303 main event, as they did against Jamahal Hill less than three months ago. During the first round of a scheduled five, after the fight was halted momentarily for a low blow, “Poatan” uncorked a vicious punch to send Hill to the mat.

From there, Pereira quickly pounced on Hill to score a flurry of ground and pound shots to send Hill to the land of wind and ghosts. All it’ll take for Alex Pereira to defend his light heavyweight title in the UFC 303 main event is to land one punch.

If he can knock Jiri Prochazka down with one-punch power, momentum will be firmly on his side in Las Vegas.

Prochazka Can Work Quickly

In the other corner, Jiri Prochazka has been known to get the job done in an expedient fashion. One need look no further than his UFC debut vs. Volkan Oezdemir on Fight Island. During the second round of the UFC 251 featured prelim, Prochazka scored with a kick to the leg before stalking Oezdemir and landing a high kick.

Smelling blood in the water, he attempted a flying knee that couldn’t connect, but did cash in with a crisp punch to the head to put Oezdemir away. Look for Jiri Prochazka to mix up his strikes in the UFC 303 main event A variety of shots could be the difference-maker.

Final Thoughts

Expect high energy and high drama in the UFC 303 main event. Don’t miss it.

Prediction: Alex Pereira by First-Round Knockout. 

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Drew Zuhosky is a combat sports writer since May of 2018, coming to MMASucka after stints at Overtime Heroics and Armchair All-Americans. A graduate of Youngstown State University in Youngstown, OH, Drew is a charter member of the Youngstown Press Club. Prior to beginning his professional career, Drew was a sportswriter for YSU's student-run newspaper, The Jambar, where he supplied Press Box Perspective columns every week.