Analysis

UFC 297 Co-Main Event Breakdown

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If you’ve been following any of the significant evening newscasts nationwide and across North America, you’d know one thing about the weather of late: It’s been cold. Many North American communities have recently been disguised as Siberia’s front porch.

It’s been so chilly outside that warming centers have been set up for people who want to escape the frigid air. The chill has extended to Canada, where MMA‘s top promotion will set up shop this Saturday night for its first flagship event of 2024.

After a month away from pay-per-view, the UFC heads up to Toronto for UFC 297 this weekend. Live coverage of the show begins Saturday at 6 pm ET/ 3 pm PT on UFC Fight Pass and ESPN+ with the early prelims, followed at 8 pm ET/ 5 pm PT on ESPNEWS with late prelims.

Main card action caps the night at 10 pm ET/ 7 pm PT on ESPN+ pay-per-view. All told, barring any late adjustments between now and Saturday, UFC 297 features a full 12-fight card.

Vacant Women’s Bantamweight Gold at Stake in UFC 297 Co-Main Event Saturday

To begin the year on PPV, the UFC has trotted out a championship doubleheader at the top of the show, starting with the UFC 297 co-main event. Supremacy at women’s bantamweight is on the line in the promotion’s first championship confrontation of 2024.

No. 2 contender Raquel Pennington (15-8 MMA, 12-5 UFC) will meet No. 3 contender Mayra Bueno Silva (10-2-1, 1 NC MMA, 5-2-1, 1 NC UFC) for the Vacant UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship. Your winner will become the sixth different champion at 135 lbs., succeeding the now-retired Amanda Nunes (23-5 MMA, 16-2 UFC), who left the sport after defeating Irene Aldana (15-7 MMA, 8-5 UFC) last June.

UFC 297 Co-Main Event Fighter Comparison and Betting Odds

Heading into the UFC 297 co-main event on Saturday night, Raquel Pennington stands as the taller competitor at 5-foot-7, compared to the 5-foot-6 frame of Mayra Bueno Silva. In addition, Pennington owns a one-inch reach advantage (67 inches to 66 inches) over her opponent, while Bueno Silva has a two-inch leg reach advantage (39 inches to 37 inches) over Pennington.

As of Wednesday afternoon, the oddsmakers have Mayra Bueno Silva installed as a -175 favorite on the money line, while Raquel Pennington counters as a +145 underdog. If you plan on betting on this or any other fight happening over the weekend, please wager responsibly.

Raquel Pennington Wants Violence in UFC 297 Co-Main Event

Raquel Pennington has posted a record of 5-0 in her last five fights. Most recently, she scored a split decision win over Ketlen Viera (14-3 MMA, 8-3 UFC) on Jan. 14, 2023 in UFC Vegas 67. 

Despite the yearlong layoff, Pennington is ready to unleash the beast on Saturday, as she told the press in her media availability session on Wednesday morning.

“Listen, she’s a character, right?,” Pennington said about Mayra Bueno Silva. “All the things that she’s saying [are] like really entertaining me. What you just said is completely contradicting to what I’ve heard that she’s saying. At the end of the day, like, I feel like she’s talking all the crap, she’s trying to say all the things. Sure, maybe the fans want to see her fight Juliana (Pena) because they both yap a lot, they talk, and so everybody wants to see that.”

“They love the entertainment portion,” she continued.  “That’s just not who I am and I think about the kids and the younger generation who look up to me and it’s not about talking crap to each other and doing everything. At the end of the day, a fight’s a fight. Our fists are going to do the talking.”

Another week, another round of bulletin board material from a fighter.

Bueno Silva Counters with Verbal Jabs of Her Own

In the other corner, Mayra Bueno Silva has gone 3-1 with one no-contest  in her last five fights. At present, she’s unbeaten in her last four contests (3-0, 1 NC).

Last time out, she saw her fight vs. Holly Holm (15-6, 1 NC MMA, 8-6, 1 NC UFC) get retroactively overturned to a no-contest after she returned a positive drug test. Initially, Bueno Silva was ruled the winner due to a second-round submission (ninja choke.)

At her Wednesday press junket, Bueno Silva made it coldly simple about Raquel Pennington:

“I am better than her at everything,” Bueno Silva told the media. “Everything, my boxing, my jiu-jitsu, my wrestling, my mental health. It’s everything.”

Analysis, Film Study, and Prediction

Stylistically, the UFC 297 co-main event looks to favor Raquel Pennington, a boxer with a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, compared to Mayra Bueno Silva’s brown belt in BJJ.

Look for Pennington to Try a Guillotine Choke

Raquel Pennington can be vicious when the time comes for her to land a submission. As long as she manages to get her opponent to the cage mat, the fight’s momentum can go to her side of the ledger, as it did against Macy Chiasson in 2021.

During round two of a scheduled three, Pennington put Chiasson in the clinch, applying double underhooks in the process. Although Chiasson scored with knees to Pennington’s body, more was needed for Pennington to lose momentum.

Upon the two stalking each other, Pennington returned to the clinch and took Chiasson down, applying the torque to lock in a front guillotine choke in slightly over three minutes. All it’ll take Raquel Pennington is a single takedown to get out of Toronto as the champ.

Mayra Bueno Silva Can Write a Quick Ending to the Tale

In the other corner, this advisory: Don’t blink when Mayra Bueno Silva is in the cage. You might end up missing the finish of the fight.

She’ll try to make this night at the office short, much like she did against Stephanie Egger in 2022. The first round of the fight saw Egger land some solid punches, but her advantage was short-lived. Although Egger took Bueno Silva down, she reversed position and secured the armbar in a little over a minute.

Upon further review by Marc Smith, who served as the onsite video official that evening, the official ruling of an armbar submission was upheld by match referee Chris Tognoni. Look for Bueno Silva to dump Pennington early on Saturday night. If she does, it’s a done deal before you return from the fridge.

Final Thoughts

Here’s hoping you have a lot of popcorn handy for the UFC 297 co-main event. There won’t be much time to pop it after the fight starts.

Prediction: Raquel Pennington by Second-Round Submission. 

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Drew Zuhosky has been writing about combat sports since May of 2018, coming to MMASucka after stints at Overtime Heroics and Armchair All-Americans. A graduate of Youngstown State University in Youngstown, OH, Drew is a charter member of the Youngstown Press Club. Prior to beginning his professional career, Drew was a sportswriter for YSU's student-run newspaper, The Jambar, where he supplied Press Box Perspective columns every week.

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