From the fight capital of the world in Las Vegas, Nevada, the UFC sets the table for what is shaping up for a pivotal welterweight showdown between the streaking Michael Morales and the established veteran Gilbert Burns. Before that, though, Scottish submission ace Paul Craig aims to halt the advance of the hulking Rodolfo Bellato.
Main Event
Since arriving in the UFC in early 2022, Morales has cemented his place as one of the 170-lb division’s hottest prospects, possessing a striking skill set well beyond his years as a 25-year old. Now just a single punch away from nabbing his place within the top ten, the Ecuador native can put himself on the map with a victory this weekend.
For a moment, it looked as though Burns was just about to become champion when he rocked then title holder Kamaru Usman in third during their championship bout in 2021 before being finished by the Nigerian. In the time since that scrap, “Durinho” has struggled immensely to remain in the winner’s circle, currently riding a three-fight losing streak; his most recent setback came against Sean Brady after a one-sided unanimous decision last September.
Co-Main Event
Making his return to light heavyweight for the first time in over two years, Craig will be looking to get his hand raised for the first time since his middleweight debut back in 2023. Suffering back-to-back defeats to Brendan Allen, Caio Borralho and Bo Nickal, “Bearjew”’s tenure in the UFC may just be hinging on the result of his upcoming contest in Vegas.
Unbeaten in his past five trips to the cage, Bellato has become a fan-favourite competitor in the 205-lb class in recent years. Last seen in the Octagon battling Jimmy Crute to a draw, “Trator” now faces another former ranked contender in the seasoned Scotsman.
More Bouts On the Main Card
Rounding out the main card, Sodiq Yusuff tangos with Ultimate Fighter winner Mairon Santos. Then, Dustin Stoltzfus locks horns with Nursulton Ruziboev. Finally, the seasoned Julian Erosa tests himself opposite Melquizael Costa.
UFC Vegas 106 Predictions and Staff Picks
MMASucka staff picks are composed of four of the world’s leading mixed martial arts organizations: the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), the Professional Fighters League (PFL), ONE Championship (ONE FC), and Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS).
- UFC picks will include main card fights ranging from four to six matchups per event.
- PFL picks from main cards for pay-per-views and from tournament fights in the Regular Season, Playoffs, and Finals.
- ONE FC and DWCS picks will feature all MMA fights from the event with a minimum of three matchups.
The individual who picks the most victorious fighters by the end of 2025 will have a choice between receiving a custom-made championship belt from ProAmBelts or a detailed chain from Championship Chains. Staff picks in 2023 were won by Ben Jamieson with a record of 300-148.
Find our UFC Vegas 106 picks and fight odds below.
Staff records after UFC 315:
- Hank Strandberg: 32-79
- Frazer Krohn: 21-59
- Drew Zuhosky: 20-91
- Jeremy Brand: 18-82
- Andrew Benjamin: 14-63
*Note – not all staff pick for every event*
Melquizael Costa -180
Vs.
Julian Erosa +155
FEATHERWEIGHT
Jeremy Brand: Erosa by Unanimous Decision
Hank Strandberg: Erosa by first round Submission
Drew Zuhosky: Erosa by Unanimous Decision
Andrew Benjamin: Erosa by Unanimous Decision
Frazer Krohn: Erosa by Unanimous Decision
Staff picking Costa: 0
Staff picking Erosa: 5
Nursultan Ruziboev -230
Vs.
Dustin Stoltzfus +195
MIDDLEWEIGHT
Jeremy Brand: Ruziboev by second round Submission
Hank Strandberg: Ruziboev by first round Knockout
Drew Zuhosky: Stoltzfus by Unanimous Decision
Frazer Krohn: Ruziboev by second round knockout Andrew Benjamin: Stoltzfus by Unanimous Decision
Staff picking Ruziboev: 3
Staff picking Stoltzfus: 2
Mairon Santos -155
Vs.
Sodiq Yusuff +135
FEATHERWEIGHT
Jeremy Brand: Santos by Unanimous Decision
Hank Strandberg: Santos by Unanimous Decision
Drew Zuhosky: Santos by Unanimous Decision
Frazer Krohn: Yusuff by first round knockout
Andrew Benjamin: Yusuff by first round Knockout
Staff picking Santos: 3
Staff picking Yusuff: 2
Rodolfo Bellato -410
Vs.
Paul Craig +310
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT
Jeremy Brand: Bellato by Unanimous Decision
Hank Strandberg: Bellato by second round Knockout Drew Zuhosky: Craig by Unanimous Decision
Frazer Krohn: Craig by round three submission
Andrew Benjamin: Craig by second round Submission
Staff picking Bellato: 2
Staff picking Craig: 3
Michael Morales -600
Vs.
Gilbert Burns +425
WELTERWEIGHT
Jeremy Brand: Morales by Unanimous Decision
Hank Strandberg: Morales by Unanimous Decision
Drew Zuhosky: Burns by first round Submission
Frazer Krohn: Morales by round four TKO
Andrew Benjamin: Burns by Split Decision
Staff picking Morales: 3
Staff picking Burns: 2
