Stats For Suckas: Jake Shields vs Demian Maia

Let’s be honest: Every now and then it’s fun to get down into the nitty-gritty statistics and see if we can’t perform some MMAth. It helps us analyze future fights and make predictions based on previous history. Fans of all sports do it, so why can’t we? It can help us look for potential trends in a fighter as well. So, with thanks to Sherdog and FightMetric.com for the raw data, let’s examine the main event of the upcoming UFC Fight Night 29: Jake Shields vs. Demian Maia.

Jake Shields	Stats	Demian Maia
34	Age	35
Cesar Gracie Fight Team	Camp	Wand Fight Team
28-6-1-1	Record	18-4
Orthodox	Stance	Southpaw
72.0″	Reach	72.0″
3 (T)KO (11%) 10 Submissions (36%) 15 Decisions (54%)	Win Percentage	3 (T)KO (17%) 9 Submissions (50%) 6 Decisions (33%)
2 (T)KO (33%) 4 Decisions (67%)	Loss Percentage	1 (T)KO (25%) 3 Decisions (75%)
Sept. 15th, 2007, over Renato Verissimo	Last (T)KO Victory	July 7th, 2012, over Dong Hyun Kim
June 6th, 2009, over Robbie Lawler	Last Submission Victory	Oct. 13th, 2012, over Rick Story
June 15th, 2013, over Tyron Woodley	Last Decision Victory	Feb. 2nd, 2013 over Jon Fitch
Sept. 17th, 2011, to Jake Ellenberger	Last (T)KO Loss	Aug. 29th, 2009, to Nate Marquardt
N/A	Last Submission Loss	N/A
Apr. 30th, 2011, to Georges St. Pierre	Last Decision Loss	Jan.28th, 2012, to Chris Weidman
RNC 6x (60%) Guillotine 3x (30%) Armbar 1x (10%)	Submission Victories by Method	RNC 4x (44%) Triangle 2x (22%) Armbar 1x (11%) Guillotine 1x (11%) Neck Crank 1x (11%)
N/A	Submission Losses by Method	N/A
1586	Days since last Submission win	352
N/A	Last fight in Brazil	Oct. 13th, 2012
3	Decision Victories in the UFC	5
2.74	Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute	1.82
38%	Striking Accuracy	42%
1.91	Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute	1.75
56%	Striking Defense	61%
3.31	Average Takedown Attempts per 15 Min.	3.35
33%	Takedown Accuracy	33%
38%	Takedown Defense Percentage	53%
1.32	Average Submission Attempts Per 15 Min.	1.58
28.80%	Average Submission Completion Rate	46.80%
91, vs. Yoshihiro Akayama, Feb. 25th, 2012	Most Significant Strikes Landed in a Fight	51, vs. Chris Weidman, Jan. 28th, 2012
6 hrs, 35 min, 7 sec	Total Cage Time	3 hrs, 2 min, 28 sec

While some of my counterparts in the MMA media are not excited for this fight, I am. I love a good grappling battle, and with this clash of Brazilian and American Jiu Jitsu is making me a happy camper. However, I can’t help but feel that it’s going to be the resurgent Demian Maia taking the win here, with his slightly better takedown defense, striking accuracy, and superior submission completion rate. I don’t consider total cage time as a factor here, due to Shields’ grinding, top control heavy style. The bulk of this fight is going to take place on the ground, and I think that Maia’s trickier takedowns (even Chael Sonnen sings his praises) will allow him to get the fight to the ground while staying on top, and allow him to either grind out a decision or catch a late submission.