The UFC keeps unleashing banger after banger, and it’s not different come June 7th, when MMA fans get an amazing card at UFC 316.
Even if every single betting favorite prevails, UFC 316 is going to be a fun watch. However, MMA is as volatile as it gets in the world of betting on the UFC, and there are several UFC 316 underdogs that should be on your radar.
UFC 316 Underdogs: 3 Fighters Who Could Shock
Sean O’Malley Over Merab Dvalishvili
Up first, is Sean O’Malley getting back on track against Merab DvUFCalishvili. This is a rematch after Dvalishvili outlasted O’Malley via Decision last September.
Merab is the obvious favorite to once again get the win, but at +265 at some MMA betting sites, O’Malley is too good of a value to ignore. The biggest factor is obviously his explosiveness, as Suga has 12 career KOs, and he has finished his opponents in a multitude of ways.
This is a stark contrast to his opponent, as Dvalishvili has superior defense and simply outscores whoever he’s facing, as his 15 Decision wins can attest. Merab has also never been KO’d, further displaying just how difficult this task is for O’Malley.
Scared money doesn’t make money, though. O’Malley has far more finishing ability between the two, and it only takes one punch for Merab to eat his first ever KO defeat. Adding to the allure of an O’Malley KO? Merab is four years older, O’Malley does have a significant reach advantage (four inches), and he is also much taller.
If we go just off of skill-set, resume, and the first meeting, then sure, Dvalishvili isn’t fun to bet against. However, this is for the Bantamweight title belt and crazier things have happened.
Merab is not a passive fighter in the least. If he’s as aggressive with his takedowns as he was in the first fight, he could leave an opening for O’Malley to take advantage.
Julianna Pena Over Kayla Harrison
As weird as it sounds, this UFC 316 upset pick is admittedly even less likely. Kayla Harrison is a Judo phenom, she’s big, she’s strong, and she has a shot at the women’s Bantamweight title bet.
At age 34, Harrison is going to start her decline sometime soon, so it’s now or never for her to explode into being the face of women’s MMA in the UFC. That said, she has just two fights under the UFC banner, and she isn’t invincible (she lost to Larissa Pacheco in 2022).
On the other side is reigning champion Julianna Pena, who is a staggering +650 UFC 316 underdog, depending on where you’re betting. Pena is no stranger to big ladies who can throw their weight around, of course, as she survived two battles with Amanda Nunes – winning one.
Everyone is expecting Harrison to dominate en route to UFC glory, but what if it doesn’t happen? Harrison is statistically the much more aggressive and assertive fighter, and she’s favored because she probably can and will control this thing. In terms of takedown offense and defense, she easily has the edge.
That said, Pena is tough as nails, she’s faced a higher level of competition, and she does have a three-inch reach edge in this one. While this is a harder upset to get behind, Pena is a good fighter and her price is too good to pass up.
You’re simply not betting on Harrison at her current price, and there’s nothing here that guarantees a finish. Personally, I’d be hammering “go the distance” wagers”, and/or I’d target Pena for the upset.
Vicente Luque Over Kevin Holland
Now that we have the two headlining fights out of the way, let’s get to the third of our UFC 316 underdogs that is a bit easier to stomach. I have a lot of respect for Kevin Holland, but he is clearly on the back nine of his career and simply hasn’t been able to finish people off like he used to.
Holland enters UFC 316 as a betting favorite, and it’s worth noting that he is coming off of a win against Gunnar Nelson. That said, Holland is just 2-4 over his last six fights, and the 34-year old has a bit of a challenge on his hands when facing Vicente Luque.
Luque has 10 career losses, but most of his recent defeats have come against really tough competition. A Decision loss to Belal Muhammad is more than understandable, while getting TKO’d by Joaquin Buckley also isn’t overly shameful.
On the flip side, Luque can still dish it out. He is 2-1 over his last three fights, with one being a nice Decision win over Rafael dos Anjos, and his most recent win seeing Themba Gorimbo tap out.
This is a pretty event battle, which is reason number one why I like Luque at his +155 price tag (depending where you bet). Holland has a big edge in reach, but Luque is more successful with his takedowns and grades out as the more impactful striker.
Luque is admittedly the safest UFC 316 underdog to target, but the upside associated with Pena and O’Malley is pretty appealing.
Main image credit: IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire
