The latest UFC PPV is just around the corner from Abu Dhabi and we provide you with some UFC 321 betting tips.
In the main event, Tom Aspinall makes the first defence of his heavyweight title as he takes on former interim champion, Ciryl Gane. The co-main event also sees gold on the line as Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba go to war for the vacant strawweight strap.
Elsewhere, former title challenger, Umar Nurmagomedov, looks to get back to winning ways as he takes on the in-form Mario Bautista. Rounding out the main card is an interesting battle between Alexander Volkov and Jailton Almeida, as well as a light heavyweight outing for Aleksandar Rakic and Azamat Murzakanov.
We provide you with our UFC 321 betting tips and advise you which bets to avoid.
UFC 321 Betting Tips and Odds
Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane – Aspinall wins via submission (+260)
Aspinall vs Gane is a closely matched affair… on the feet. Aspinall has heavy hands, quick kicks and a slick boxing game. Recording an impressive 12 career TKO/KOs, including three straight first round TKO/KOs in his last three UFC fights.
Gane, on the other hand, has a background in Muay Thai, is notoriously good at avoiding strikes and when he wants to chase the finish, he’s brutal. With that being said, there’s one huge hole in his game.
Bon Gamin is vulnerable in the wrestling realm. The two losses on his record are both as a result of holes in his wrestling game. Against Francis Ngannou, a man not known for his wrestling, he was taken down four times and largely controlled afterwards. His loss to Jon Jones came in devastating fashion, with Jones easily outwrestling him and getting the quick submission.
Aspinall’s ground game and wrestling is extremely underrated. He’s a legitimate black belt in BJJ with a background in the sport before MMA. He’s recorded three career submissions and has a takedown accuracy of 100% in the UFC. Taking the fight to the floor is the path of least resistance for the champion, so it’s likely what he’ll look to do.
Aspinall to submit Gane is the bet, especially at +240.
Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern – Dern Outright (+102)
The co-main event will see a rematch between Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern. They first met in 2020 across three rounds with Dern coming out the victor, 29-28 on all scorecards.
The bout largely played out on the feet, with Dern struggling to get the fight to the ground, but having the better of the striking exchanges.
Jandiroba has gone 6-1 since then, with Dern going 5-4. With that being said, Dern’s takedown offence has improved slightly since their first outing.
Prior to the bout, she was 1/13 with in her takedown accuracy with a 7.6%. Since their bout, she’s gone 11/50 with an accuracy of 22%. Although she misses a lot on her takedowns, she’s had more success.
Jandiroba has a 73% takedown defence and with Dern’s perceived advantage on the ground, expect this one to play out on the feet. Neither woman is particularly powerful, with Jandiroba only having one TKO/KO on her record, due to injury and Dern has never recorded a knockout.
Expect experienced coach, Jason Parillo to create a solid game plan for Dern, which will see her lift gold.
We’re adding Dern to our UFC 321 betting tips.
Nathaniel Wood vs Jose Delgado – Wood Outright (+136)
The best fight on the preliminary section of the card comes at featherweight as Nathaniel Wood takes on Jose Delgado. The Last Kingsman, Wood, will look to continue his winning ways after an impressive decision victory over Morgan Charriere in March. It’ll be a tough ask as he takes on the similarly in-form Jose Delgado. The American is riding a seven-fight winning run and has never seen the final bell.
Wood will take one to land one, but he has to be careful with Delgado, who has legitimate power at 145lbs. In some ways, Charriere was the perfect opponent to prepare for Delgado, a heavy handed striker who likes to walk forwards.
The Brit’s experience should get him over the line in this one, so go for a British 1-2 with Wood added to the Aspinall win.
