Analysis

UFC 298 Main Event Breakdown

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The city of Anaheim, CA has already had a big week as it is. On Monday, just hours after capturing the Super Bowl in an overtime victory against the San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes took to Disneyland, an honor usually bestowed to the game’s MVP.

With the weekend nearing, it’s about to get even busier for Anaheim, but make no mistake: The trek that the UFC‘s finest are making to Southern California is strictly a business trip. There won’t be time for fun and frivolity until after UFC 298 ends on Saturday night inside the Honda Center.

UFC 298 is the second flagship event for MMA’s top promotion in 2024. Live coverage of the card begins with the early prelims at 6:30 pm ET/ 3:30 pm PT on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass, continuing at 8 pm ET/ 5 pm PT with late prelims on ESPN+ and ESPN proper.

Spanish coverage of the late prelims will be available on ESPN Deportes. Main card action closes out the night at 10 pm ET/ 7 pm PT on ESPN+ pay-per-view. Order now if you’re stateside. We’ve compiled a handy viewing guide with options for fans the world over.

Featherweight Gold Up For Grabs in UFC 298 Main Event

All told, barring any new postponements between now and Saturday, the final version of UFC 298 features a full 12-fight card. After a key middleweight showdown takes place in the co-main event of the evening, the headliner sees a battle for supremacy at 145 lbs.

Incumbent champion Alexander Volkanovski (26-3 MMA, 13-2 UFC) puts the strap on the line when he takes on undefeated challenger and No. 3 contender Ilia Topuria (14-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC). As with all UFC championship bouts, the UFC 298 main event is an advertised maximum of five rounds at five minutes per round to close the show.

UFC 298 Main Event Fighter Comparison and Betting Odds

Heading into the UFC 298 main event on Saturday night, Ilia Topuria stands as the taller contender at 5-foot-7, while Alexander Volkanovski stands 5-foot-6. Volkanovski owns a 2 1/2-inch reach advantage (71 1/2 inches to 69 inches even), whereas Topuria has  a one-inch leg reach advantage (37 inches to 36 inches) ahead of this fight.

Presently, the oddsmakers have Alexander Volkanovski installed as a -125 favorite on the money line, with Ilia Topuria countering as a +105 underdog. If you plan on betting on this or any other fight happening this weekend, please wage responsibly.

Volkanovski Eager to Rebound in UFC 298 Main Event

Alexander Volkanovski has posted a record of 3-2 in his last five fights. Most recently, he sustained a first-round knockout due to a head kick followed by hammerfists in a rematch against Islam Makhachev (25-1 MMA, 14-1 UFC) during the UFC 294 main event back in October.

Recently, the champ met with veteran MMA reporter Megan Olivi to discuss the UFC 298 main event.

“It definitely can be a positive to be that confident,” Volkanovski said of Topuria’s hopes to defeat him, “but at the same time, if he’s just used to being the hammer, he’s just going to crumble. And you could see him crumble pretty easily in February, and that’s what I plan on doing. I plan on showing him that I’m the king of this division and have been for a long time and that’s for a good reason. I plan on reminding everyone of that on Feb. 17.”

The time to talk is over for Alexander Volkanovski. Can he deliver a win on Saturday night?

Topuria Slams Volkanovski’s Fight Game Ahead of UFC 298 Main Event

In the other corner, challenger Ilia Topuria has yet to lose thus far in his MMA career. Last time out, he battled Josh Emmett (19-4 MMA, 10-4 UFC) to a unanimous decision victory after five rounds in the UFC on ABC 5 main event back in June.

On Wednesday, he took to the podium for media availability and didn’t mince words about his opponent’s prowess.

“I understand that he doesn’t have knockout power,” Topuria told the press. “I have knockout power. He goes on volume. That’s how he wins his fights. He’s not a finisher. When he goes to the ground, he’s not known for finishing. So I’m a different breed and I’m going to beat him up. If he doesn’t believe it, if that’s not what he thinks, and whoever thinks the contrary, screw them.”

Both of these men have supplied bulletin board material before this fight. Who will win the day?

Analysis, Film Study, and Prediction

Stylistically, the UFC 298 main event is a classic toss-up. Both of these men have black belts in BJJ, though an edge is given to Topuria for his wrestling background.

Look For Volkanovski to Punch His Way to a Defense of the Title

Of Volkanovski’s 26 careers victories, half have come by way of knockout. Sometimes, he’s had to go deep into a fight to stop his opposition, such as his win against Yair Rodriguez last summer.

During the third round of a scheduled five, Volkanovski and Rodriguez stalked each other while trading strikes. After a brief pause by Herb Dean for a clash of heads, Rodriguez landed a kick to the head.

Upon returning fire with a right hook Volkanovski backed Rodriguez up to the cage fence and secured a takedown, taking mount and raining down ground and pound shots like a springtime thunderstorm, forcing Dean to call an end to the bout.

If Volkanovski displays fists of fury, he’ll be hearing “The winner… and still…” after the UFC 298 main event on Saturday night.

Ilia Topuria Can Quickly Submit Any Opponent

In the other corner, Ilia Topuria is a tough customer in the supermarket. Once he gets an opponent to the mat, the fight could be done and dusted right away. Brian Bouland found this out firsthand when Topuria was in Cage Warriors.

Round one of the fight saw the fight quickly go to the floor. It was a grappling match for as long as it lasted, with Topuria locking up the hips and asserting control of the fight.

Bouland had no chance to get anything going. Topuria nearly secured a D’arce choke and locked in an anaconda choke in under two minutes.

All it will take for Ilia Topuria to claim the belt is one takedown. His ground game will do the rest.

Final Thoughts

The calendar may read Feb. 17 on Saturday, but the UFC 298 main event could be a candidate for fight of the year in 2024. Don’t miss it.

Prediction: Ilia Topuria by Second-Round Submission. 

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Drew Zuhosky has been writing about combat sports since May of 2018, coming to MMASucka after stints at Overtime Heroics and Armchair All-Americans. A graduate of Youngstown State University in Youngstown, OH, Drew is a charter member of the Youngstown Press Club. Prior to beginning his professional career, Drew was a sportswriter for YSU's student-run newspaper, The Jambar, where he supplied Press Box Perspective columns every week.

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