Stats for Suckas: Nate Diaz vs Gray Maynard III
Let’s be honest: Every now and then it’s fun to get down into the nitty-gritty statistics and see if we can’t perform some MMAth. It helps us analyze future fights and make predictions based on previous history. Fans of all sports do it, so why can’t we? It can help us look for potential trends […]
Let’s be honest: Every now and then it’s fun to get down into the nitty-gritty statistics and see if we can’t perform some MMAth. It helps us analyze future fights and make predictions based on previous history. Fans of all sports do it, so why can’t we? It can help us look for potential trends in a fighter as well. So, with thanks to Sherdog and FightMetric.com for the raw data, let’s examine the main event of the upcoming Ultimate Fighter 18 Finale: The trilogy bout pitting Nate Diaz vs. Gray Maynard.
Nate Diaz vs Gray Maynard III
 Statistics
|
Nate Diaz
|
Gray Maynard
|
| Age |
28 |
34 |
| Camp |
Cesar Gracie Fight Team |
American Kickboxing Academy |
| Record |
16-9 |
11-2-1 (1 N/C) |
| Stance |
Southpaw
|
Orthodox |
| Reach |
76.0″ |
70.0″ |
| Win Percentage |
3 (T)KO (19%)
11 Submissions (69%)
2 Decisions (13%) |
2 (T)KO (18%)
9 Decisions (82%) |
| Loss Percentage |
1 (T)KO (11%)
1 Submission (11%)
7 Decisions (78%) |
2 (T)KO (100%) |
| Last (T)KO Victory |
Mar. 27th, 2010, over Rory Markham |
Sep. 19th, 2007, over Joe Veres |
| Last Submission Victory |
May 5th, 2012, over Jim Miller |
N/A |
| Last Decision Victory |
Dec. 30th, 2011, over Donald Cerrone |
Jan. 22nd, 2012, over Clay Guida |
| Last (T)KO Loss |
Apr. 20th, 2013, to Josh Thomson |
May 25th, 2013, to T.J. Grant |
| Last Submission Loss |
Oct. 12th, 2006, to Hermes Franca |
N/A |
| Last Decision Loss |
Dec. 8th, 2012, to Benson Henderson |
N/A |
| Submission Victories by Method |
Guillotine 4x (36%)
Triangle Choke 4x (36%)
Armbar x2 (18%)
Keylock x1 (9%) |
N/A |
| Submission Losses by method |
Armbar 1x (100%) |
N/A |
| Most significant strikes absorbed in a fight |
124, on Dec. 8th, 2012, against Benson Henderson |
95, on Jan. 1st, 2011, against Frankie Edgar |
| Decision Win/Loss Ratio |
2/7 |
9/0 |
| Decision Victories in the UFC |
2 |
8 |
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute |
3.32 |
2.1 |
| Striking Accuracy |
42% |
31% |
| Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute |
2.6 |
2.35 |
| Striking Defense |
57% |
72% |
| Average Takedown Attempts per 15 Min. |
0.97 |
2.56 |
| Takedown Accuracy |
27% |
48% |
| Takedown Defense Percentage |
45% |
86% |
| Average Submission per 15 Min. |
1.49 |
0.74 |
| Average Submission Completion Rate |
66.40% |
0.00% |
| Most Significant Strikes Landed in a Fight |
238, on Dec. 30th, 2011, against Donald Cerrone |
71, on Jan. 1st, 2011, against Frankie Edgar |
| Total Fight Time |
2 hrs, 46 min, 41 sec |
3 hrs, 19 min, 45 sec |
While Nate Diaz is actually the more well-rounded fighter here, strong wrestlers have always been his kryptonite. However, in terms of MMA wrestling, I wouldn’t put Gray Maynard as an exceptionally strong example in terms of offense. He would have to land more than 50% of his takedown attempts in order to qualify for that. Still, with Gray’s win over Nate being an extremely close split decision, and Diaz’s victory over him in the TUF Season 5 semi-finals was by guillotine choke. While I don’t think either man has picked up too many new skills since they last did battle, I honestly feel like Nate has put in more work. With that, a 6″ reach advantage, and one of the highest submission completion rates in the UFC, I expect Nate to catch the submission victory once again.
