An early preview of Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev: Fight breakdown

When Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev takes place at UFC 333, there will be more at stake than the featherweight title. Neither man wants to lose, and they have their own reasons for wanting to emerge victorious. For Volkanovski, it's yet another test against Father Time, but for Evloev? It is his long-awaited chance to realize his professional dream. So, how will the fight go down?

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev: The style clash

Striking

Every fight starts standing, and Alexander Volkanovski will have a disproportionate advantage against Movsar Evloev on the feet. He's a sharp striker with excellent footwork when given the space to snipe his opponent with jabs, interrupting them as they try to close the distance. He'll jab, then circle away into open space to avoid gettitng his back pinned against the fence. Alternatively, he'll land the inside low kick to punish any fighter who tries to jab him, slapping their lead leg as they extend their stance and step into range. This isn't foolproof, and it has led to Volkanovski getting countered by punches over the top with his kicking leg still off the ground. So, 'The Great' has developed solutions to this problem, though it only works in closed stance matchups.

He'll slap his opponent's inner thigh or calf with a low kick, then when they try to rush in to counter him, he switches stances from orthodox to southpaw, or vice versa, to land a lead hook, essentially countering their counter. This adjustment is what rocked Yair Rodriguez in round three of their UFC 290 encounter, and ultimately led to the TKO sequence. His low kick is also there to force his opponent to reset their stance, which creates openings for him to land with combinations over the top. This is further helped by Volkanovski's feints, which he uses to overload his opponent's decision-making process, forcing them into a defensive mindset. Speaking of defense, Volkanovski is exceptionally hard to hit clean.

He is always circling to evade the fence and slide out of his opponent's center-line. So, when his opponent realigns themselves with him, he pops their head back with jabs. However, he isn't perfect, as Volkanovski has a bad habit of getting lulled into pocket boxing exchanges, where he reveals a tendency to lean back from punches, which exposes his chin. This led to issues in his first fight with Islam Makhachev at UFC 284, where Volkanovski lost via unanimous decision. It led to even more trouble at UFC 298, where Ilia Topuria backed him up in a straight line and knocked him out mid-exchange in round two. So, what about Evloev's striking? Well, it's serviceable, but unremarkable and unpolished.

Evloev has a decent jab and a one-two that he uses to back his opponent up, and he'll occasionally slam an inside low kick at the end of a combination. But he is prone to rushing into range, and uncorking wild spinning attacks without any proper setup, which he did against Lerorne Murphy at UFC Fight Night 270, though he still won via unanimous decision. That is all to say that there isn't much to his striking, and if the fight stays on the feet, he'll get picked apart by Volkanovski.

Wrestling & grappling

The wrestling is where things get interesting. From an offensive standpoint, Volkanovski is a good wrestler. In fact, he started off as a wrestler before finding more success as a striker. He ducks under punches when his opponent's hips are squared, scoring well-timed takedowns, and he has a good outside trip that he combines with a shoulder bump to upset his opponent's balance. However, the better wrestler is Evloev, who has a much deeper bag of tricks. His single leg takedown, if he cannot get it by simply turning the corner and stepping in at an angle, can be converted to an inside trip as he tucks his opponent's trapped leg into his armpit, then sweeps their standing leg.

Evloev is also highly adept at securing the bodylock, then dropping and bumping his hips against his opponent's, while dropping the shoulder to lift and slam them on the mat, and he almost immediately takes the back upon doing so, as he is aware that his opponent will try to get on all fours to post up and stand, exposing their back. He also has a great blast double-leg takedown that he unleashes when his opponent is on the retreat. If he cannot get it, he'll quickly spring back up and blast his opponent with combinations over the top, and even throw a flying knee, creating enough chaos to leave them uncomfortable, before shooting under again.

One of his sneakier takedowns, which he scored against Diego Lopes at UFC 288, where he won via unanimous decision, was an ankle pick he combined with an overhand right. With Lopes unsure of whether a takedown or a punch was coming, he was frozen and ended up eating a right hand while conceding the ankle pick anyway. Once the fight hits the mat, Evloev has great transitions, and usually rolls with his opponent's momentum to either counter their attempted sweeps or end up on top. There isn't much in terms of ground-and-pound from him, but he occasionally postures up and drives down with his hips with every shot.

His physical strength is also tremendous, as it allowed him to outgrapple the uber-strong Arnold Allen at UFC 297, where he won via unanimous decision. Even Aljamain Sterling, one of the best grapplers on the roster, lost a unanimous decision to Evloev at UFC 310. Now, Volkanovski isn't easy to control whatsoever. He immediately uses a butterfly guard to sweep his opponent when taken down. He'll also grab his opponent's leg when fending off a single leg off, then wraps his arms over the opponent's lower back to control their posture, tugging them forward to take their back. Volkanovski also posts with one hand on the mat to stall his opponent's forward pressure during scrambles before scooting back up to his feet.

On the submission front, there isn't much of a threat from Evloev, as he has zero finishes in the UFC. Regardless, Volkanovski is incredibly difficult to submit, as he stays calm under pressure. At UFC 266, where he beat Brian Ortega via unanimous decision, he survived the guillotine choke by tucking his chin, using one hand to push against Ortega's hip, and using his other hand to push down on the forearm of one of Ortega's choking arms to eventually break the grip. So, while Evloev will certainly have the edge in the wrestling and grappling departments, Volkanovski will be good enough, and physically strong enough, to neutralize him.

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev: Early prediction

Alexander Volkanovski will likely win at UFC 333 after picking Movsar Evloev apart on the feet, using his movement to frustrate him. Evloev will have his moments, scoring takedowns and perhaps even stealing a round or two, but Volkanovski, unless age has caught up to him, will prove too difficult to control and ultimately win the decision to avoid a potential retirement.