Ilia Topuria is set to face Charles Oliveira at UFC 317, headlining International Fight Week on June 27, with the vacant lightweight title on the line. This marks Topuria’s debut at 155 pounds, following his decision to vacate the featherweight crown and move up a division.
‘El Matador’ enters the bout as a heavy betting favorite, eyeing double-champion status with a win. Meanwhile, ‘Do Bronx’ is determined to steal the spotlight as he looks to reclaim the lightweight title.
Paths to victory for Ilia Topuria at UFC 317
Ilia Topuria has established himself as one of the deadliest punchers on the UFC roster. He boasts an undefeated record of 16-0 and secured knockout victories against Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway in his previous two outings. He would hope to carry the same momentum into his bout at UFC 317.
Ilia Topuria will likely have one clear game plan this weekend- keep the fight standing. Topuria typically starts cautiously, using the early moments to analyze his opponent’s rhythm and tendencies before turning up the pressure. The Georgian-Spaniard must look to effectively use his boxing and movement to lead the dance against Oliveira. He should adopt a patient approach and look for openings to capitalize on. It is noteworthy that the 28-year-old might not be shy to follow up with ground-and-pound strikes if he manages to drop the Brazilian to the canvas.
Ilia Topuria Best-Served with Usual Gameplan on Saturday Night
Topuria should stick to his usual approach and trap Oliveira along the fence before unleashing a flurry of strikes. This is ‘El Matador’s’ bread and butter, which could find Oliveira in serious trouble.
Even with the clear size difference between the two, it is safe to assume that Topuria will likely have the power advantage and will be looking for a knockout blow on Saturday night.
Paths to victory for Charles Oliveira at UFC 317
Charles Oliveira has cemented his legacy as one of the greatest lightweights to ever compete in the UFC. He holds the record for the most finishes in the promotion’s history and continues to be a constant submission threat inside the octagon. He claimed the 155-pound title with a dramatic win over Michael Chandler in 2021 but lost the belt to Islam Makhachev in 2022 via submission. At 35, ‘Do Bronx’ is entering the final stages of his MMA career, and this might turn out to be his final shot at UFC gold.
The Brazilian is coming into this bout on the back of a dominant unanimous decision victory over Chandler in November 2024. The Brazilian jiu jitsu ace should look to take the fight to the ground this weekend, but he also has the striking pedigree to hurt Topuria on the feet. He has dropped elite opponents like Chandler and Justin Gaethje in the past with single blows.
Topuria comes from a wrestling background but has transitioned to striking. He rarely chooses to grapple and relies on his boxing acumen. Oliveira should force the grappling issue and look for takedowns early in the fight. He also has the potential to land knee strikes from clinch positions, considering the significant size difference between the two. The former champion should utilize his superior reach and use his kicks to keep ‘El Matador’ at bay.
Predictions
The fight might not turn out to be as one-sided as several fans and analysts think. Charles Oliveira would pose a serious threat throughout the bout; however, we believe that Ilia Topuria’s clean striking, sheer power, combined with his wrestling pedigree, would prove too much for the Brazilian to handle. ‘El Matador’ could potentially find his decisive shot in the second or third round of the fight. We expect Topuria to make a statement this weekend and achieve his double-champion ambition.
Ilia Topuria def. Charles Oliveira via T/KO (R2, 4:15)
