UFC Fight Night 267 Main Event – Could the Takedown be Key?

This Saturday night’s UFC Fight Night 267 main event is the classic matchup of conflicting styles. We have a striker, Sean Strickland, taking on a wrestler, Anthony Hernandez. That’s not to say either man is poor in the other area, however, they certainly have their preferences.

We take a look at whether the wrestling could be the key to winning the main event in Houston, Texas.

UFC Fight Night 267 Main Event – Could the Takedown be Key?

The Statistics

Heading into the UFC Fight Night 267 main event, Strickland holds a takedown defence percentage of 76%. He’s been taken down 15 times across his 23-fight UFC career. With that being said, seven of those have come in his last three fights.

When taken down, he isn’t controlled for long while on his back. He spends just 0.76 minutes on the ground and spends just 5% of his time being controlled.

On the other side, Hernandez has a takedown accuracy of 49% and has completed 54 of his 111 takedown attempts. With that being said, in each of his last seven fights, he’s landed a minimum of four takedowns. It’s worth noting that in his two previous headline slots, he’s landed a total of 19 takedowns, of which nine have come in the championship rounds, suggesting that he’s effective when the fight goes late.

When he takes an opponent down, he controls them effectively. He has 8.57 minutes of control time per 15 minutes. He also spends 57% of the time in a controlling position.

How might the UFC Fight Night 267 Main Event play out?

Expect an extremely high pace in this one. Both men go in to every fight with the intention of leaving it all out there. The former middleweight champion, Strickland, will look to pump out his jab, box for large portions of the fight and look to defend strikes out of his Philly shell style. Note how tight his defensive guard is, his hands are low, and he’s able to deflect strikes with his lead shoulder.

This defensive style also allows him to dig for underhooks when defending takedowns, something that will come in useful against Hernandez at UFC Fight Night 267. When rushed, however, he looks to defend by posting his arms out in front of him in an attempt to try and create distance between him and his opponent. Although this is often effective in defending strikes, it leaves his arms a long way away from his hips, potentially making the takedown extremely straightforward. Note the distance between Strickland’s arms and hips below.

Fluffy can capitalise on this at UFC Fight Night 267. He can look to rush Strickland, bypassing the jab of Strickland, forcing him into the bad habit of posting his arms out and then shooting for the takedown.

Although Strickland is a black belt and has never been submitted in any of his seven losses, he hasn’t faced as dangerous a submission threat as Hernandez. He became the first person to finish Roman Dolidze, the only man to submit Marc-Andre Barriault and most notably, he submitted multiple-time jiu-jitsu world champion and ADCC world champion, Rodolfo Vieira.

In what promises to be an exciting match-up, the wrestling could determine who wins this one.

Fallout

Strickland is in desperate need of a win. His record in his last three fights is 1-2, losing twice to Dricus du Plessis and defeating Paulo Costa in one of the most boring, timid fights in recent history.

Fluffy is looking to extend his dominant win, having won his last eight straight fights, notching six finishes.

One man is fighting to stay relevant and, for once, needs to let his hands do the talking. One is on his way to a title shot. The UFC Fight Night 267 main event is a captivating fight and isn’t to be missed.